1. #1
    stevenash
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    Tampa Bay Rays (+177) over Los Angles Dodgers in six games.

    Now if this was the Home Run Derby where you can choose your college pitching coach to lob in softballs and the hitter can stand in the batters box and see how many and how far he could hit them over the fence than I would say the Dodgers is a four game sweep.

    But this isn't the Home Run Derby, this is the World Series where you actually have to pitch real pitches with real pitchers and play real defense, you know, play real baseball.

    If you've been reading my stuff for the past decade then you should know by now my mantra has always been (and always will be) "pitching usually wins". "Good pitching usually beats good hitting"

    And I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

    Tampa has the better pitching.
    Tampa has the better starting three man rotation, and Tampa has the better relieve pitching.
    While it's true the Dodgers have the better hitting, go back to the part where I said "good pitching usually beats good hitting"
    And if this proves out again, +177 is a very nice value.

    Tampa is starting Tyler Glasnow is game 1.
    Glasnow was 5 and 1 during the regular season and 2 and 1 during the post season.
    While the 4 ERA is mediocre, the 1.1 WH/IP is not.
    It means he doesn't allow many base runners.
    Glasnow throws a 100 mph fastball at the shoulders and his ancillary off speed stuff is good and makes his 100 mph fastball seen like 120 mph.

    Clayton Kershaw starts for the LA Dodgers in game 1.
    His regular season accomplishments are well documented.
    So are his post season accomplishments.
    That being Kershaw is the worst starting pitcher in the post season in MLB history.
    (more on that later)

    Game 2 Tampa starts Blake Snell
    Snell won 21 games in 2018 and a Cy Young Award as well.
    He was outstanding in the 2019 post season, and has pitched well in 3 out of 4 2020 post season games.

    I see Walter Buehler listed for Game 3 for the Dodgers but no starter listed for Game 2.
    I'm assuming that would be either left handed spot starter Julio Urias, right handed second year pro Tony Gonselin or right hander Dustin May.

    If I was manager Dave Roberts (but I'm not, I'm just some dopey sports analytical geek that write a blog for fun and a few pennies) I would start left handed Julio Urias mainly because he's left handed, his pitches are difficult to hit as a left handed batter and Tampa Bay's line up is left handed top heavy, and move May and Gonselin to the bull pen for long relief where I believe that is the Dodgers weakest link (their bull pen)

    Game 3 even though Tampa Bay has not announced it will start Charlie Morton.
    Charlie Morton has been virtually unhittable all post season.
    He's made three starts, allowed one earned run, on just 11 hits in those three starts going 3 and 0.
    And he's been doing it the past four seasons.
    Since coming from a very bad situation in Pittsburgh where the environment was a losing one, Morton has done this.
    (Note he's made virtually every start since 2017, note the K ratio, hell note all the stats)

    Year
    W L W-L% ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ FIP WHIP H9 HR9 BB9 SO9 SO/W
    2017-2020 47 18 0.723 3.34 97 97 546.1 452 220 203 51 181 646 127 3.27 1.159 7.4 0.8 3 10.6 3.57
    Average 12 4 24 24 137 113 55 51 13 45 162
    per 162 games 17 7 35 35 192 159 78 72 18 64 227


    From what I read as of this writing Walter Buehler (source MLB.com) starts game three for LA.
    Beuhler is no shit bum, but give me the proven decade long veteran (Morton) in this match up.


    Tampa has the edge in starting pitching.
    Glasnow, Snell, and Morton is a better front three then Kershaw, Buehler, and a third starter of either Urias, May, or Gonselin)

    I'm not going to go into detailed metrics to back up my claim that Tampa also has the better bullpen.
    By almost any metric you want to use Tampa has the best bullpen in the American League and probably all of baseball.

    Tampa will more than likely move left handed pitcher Ryan Yarbrough to the bullpen, giving them a more left/right balance to join LHP Aaron Loup.

    From top to bottom TB's bull pen is stingy on hitters, and come from all different angles and speeds that keep the best of major league batter off balanced.

    Tampa has the clear advantage in relief pitching.

    I can't discount hitting, it is part of the game.
    I am not going to get long winded as to which team has the most power.
    Because it's not a long winded argument,
    LA does, from the SS Seager, to the 1B/OF Bellinger, to Mookie Betts, the Dodgers are loaded with power.
    They also strike out a lot too.
    The Dodgers lineup has flaws, but I'm not stubborn or naÔve enough to realize that the Dodgers have a clear edge on offense.

    But I'm from the school of pitching beats hitting, and good defense (which TB has the better of) not taking anything away from Betts in the outfield, but if you have been watching these playoff games, and haven't noticed gold glove caliber infield play of Wendle at third base and Adames at SS for the Rays, then well you haven't been paying attention.

    I'm also from the school of the better *team* wins, not the team with the most talent.
    If you would ask me who the team is with the most talent in this matchup I would tell you LA.
    But if you were to ask me which 24 man dugout plays the best as a team unit with each and every man knowing their roles, I would say Tampa plays better as a unit.

    The causal fan may know 8 Dodgers by name in the dugout, and maybe two Rays.
    This isn't an individual game, it's a team game, and I believe TB has the better team.
    Hell, I'm betting on it.

    I'm starting to get long winded (Gee Nasher, the hell you say?)
    Good pitching usually beats good hitting.

    Post season MLB baseball is dotted with examples of this.
    The 2015 Royals won with pitching and defense. KC won with the best bullpen in baseball since the 1990 Nasty Boys and a dugout of pretty much great role no name role players that knew their roles and did it great.

    Speaking of the 1990 Nasty Boy bullpen, they beat all that Oakland power with a three headed monster of a bullpen.

    Those great Yankee teams if you look at it from the last 1990's won with pitching (Clemens and Pettitte and Rivera, and the rest) oh sure they had punch, but it started with the pitching.

    The 2002 Angels won with only two real batters (Troy Glaus and Garrett Anderson) and seven role players that knew their roles, but they had a impregnable closer in Troy Percival, and a front three starters that won 14, 15, and 18 games. (name the three starters, win valuable prizes.)

    I can continue, but I think I made my point here.

    The Dodgers may have the best hitting, but the Rays have the better manager (Cash) the better team defense, the better starting pitching, the better relief pitching, and I believe the better *team*

    Rays +177 to win the series.
    2*

  2. #2
    pilebuck13
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    Whatís walkers post season numbers and World Series numbers vs Mortonís curious to know how many World Series games Mortonís threw

  3. #3
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    What’s walkers post season numbers and World Series numbers vs Morton’s curious to know how many World Series games Morton’s threw
    Walker ( I keep calling him Walter) Buehler and I know the two haters of mine will jump ugly on me for making that mistake has one WS game pitched, but it was a 2 hit 7 inning gem.

    Morton has pitched in two WS games, both in 2017, both for Houston, one was a start and was equally impressive.


    Playoff Series Stats
    Name G GS ERA W L SV CG IP H R ER BB SO WHIP
    Charlie Morton 2 1 1.74 1 0 0 0 10.1 5 2 2 1 11 0.581

  4. #4
    KnuckleHeadz
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    With the small sample size whatís Glasnows ERA vs. dodgers and his overall era vs righties?

    Howís Mortonís numbers vs. Lefties since the dodgers have a few of them?

  5. #5
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by KnuckleHeadz View Post
    How’s Morton’s numbers vs. Lefties since the dodgers have a few of them?

    How far do you want to go back?
    If I choose a specific year by two hater will accuse me of cherry picking.
    But since 2017 outstanding,
    2020 .243/.333 good, not etlite, but good
    Since 2017, outstanding.

  6. #6
    pilebuck13
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    Fair enough I like walker but he definitely been bit up down this year

  7. #7
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    Fair enough I like walker but he definitely been bit up down this year
    The intangible with Beuhler is he's hot headed and can blow up.
    No denying he has talent.

  8. #8
    pilebuck13
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    The intangible with Beuhler is he's hot headed and can blow up.
    No denying he has talent.
    Totally 2 home run hitting teams Iíd assume some low scoring games

  9. #9
    RudyRuetigger
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    steve nash is 1 of the absolute best posters we have around here

    He needs a writing gig with sbr main page


    THANK YOU NASH!!

  10. #10
    d2bets
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    Never mind. Good luck. Worth a play.
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  11. #11
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    steve nash is 1 of the absolute best posters we have around here

    He needs a writing gig with sbr main page


    THANK YOU NASH!!
    Glad to help.
    Thanks for the words Rudy.

  12. #12
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    +177 in 6 games??? That's pretty much the line to win the series in any way.
    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Rays +177 to win the series.
    2*



    you sure do read well bro

  13. #13
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Never mind. Good luck. Worth a play.
    nice change bro

  14. #14
    pologq
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    great write up

  15. #15
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by d2bets View Post
    Never mind. Good luck. Worth a play.
    Maybe I did not convey myself correctly.

    I think TB will win the series in six games (could go seven)
    And I bet TB to win the series, the price I got is +177
    (Even though I see a couple of +180's out there now, but since I don't bet thousands .03 cents is not going to concern me all that much)

  16. #16
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Maybe I did not convey myself correctly.

    I think TB will win the series in six games (could go seven)
    And I bet TB to win the series, the price I got is +177
    (Even though I see a couple of +180's out there now, but since I don't bet thousands .03 cents is not going to concern me all that much)
    he changed the post after he finally read


    dont worry bro


    i have his actual post copied above



  17. #17
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    great write up
    Thanks

  18. #18
    BigdaddyQH
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    Nice write up. I disagree with some of it, but IMO, the main reason why to take Tampa Bay is the difference in managers. Tampa's Kevin Cash is certainly no genius when it comes to baseball, but he is way ahead of Dodger Micro-manager Dave Roberts. Roberts will manage to lose at least two games because of his terrible micro managing. One has to wonder if he knows anything about his pitching staff at all. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have the better hitters and overall players, but Roberts will find a way to lose this series, just like he has found a way to lose the two series that he has been involved in. He even managed to lose a game 7 at home (Dodger Stadium, not the pretend home in Texas). I got +180 and that is just too good to turn down.

  19. #19
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigdaddyQH View Post
    Nice write up. I disagree with some of it, but IMO, the main reason why to take Tampa Bay is the difference in managers. Tampa's Kevin Cash is certainly no genius when it comes to baseball, but he is way ahead of Dodger Micro-manager Dave Roberts. Roberts will manage to lose at least two games because of his terrible micro managing. One has to wonder if he knows anything about his pitching staff at all. There is no doubt that the Dodgers have the better hitters and overall players, but Roberts will find a way to lose this series, just like he has found a way to lose the two series that he has been involved in. He even managed to lose a game 7 at home (Dodger Stadium, not the pretend home in Texas). I got +180 and that is just too good to turn down.
    ok fukk


    nash is screwed


    EVERYONE BAIL ON THE PLAY

  20. #20
    navyblue81
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    Good write-up. I like the Rays a lot in this Series as well in either 6 or 7. I just hope they can muster enough offense because their pitching is so good theyíll keep LA at bay like they did NY and Houston.

  21. #21
    stackz125
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    Okay good enough for me. Ill take a stab
    Do you like tampa today at +146?

  22. #22
    Buckandadime
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    Always the voice of logical reasoning Nasher...
    TY..
    GL..
    Going to play small on TB R/L...

  23. #23
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by stackz125 View Post
    Okay good enough for me. Ill take a stab
    Do you like tampa today at +146?
    I do like TB in game 1 as well, I got them at +155 earlier.

    I’ve always had success being pretty much a spot play bettor focusing on underdogs.

    I have a 2 unit play on the Rays at +177 for the series.
    I have 2 unit play on TB tonight game 1 at +155

    If TB wins tonight my series bet becomes a free roll and I’m up 1.1 units even if the Rays do go on to lose the series providing I make no further bets after tonight.

    If the Rays go down 0-1 I’m hardly crippled.

  24. #24
    sackdud
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    i wonder if the days off every 3 days helps the dodgers

  25. #25
    kostasblues
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    good luck friend I like the bet
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  26. #26
    jrgum3
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    I got Tampa Bay to win the World Series the day before the playoffs started at +690. I took them again to win the series against LA at +175. I agree with everything you said Nasher Tampa Bay has been the best team in the American League all year long yet people think they came out of nowhere. They're really good and I think they show that against the Dodgers.
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  27. #27
    stevenash
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    I just need to say something here.

    If one likes LA tonight or for the series please don’t let me get you off of that.

    Im not perfect, I have been known to be wrong before.

    My second favorite mantra had always been if you like a side, bet the side don’t let anything get you off of that if you really like a particular side.

    Thanks again for all of he kind words.

  28. #28
    lakerboy
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    Good luck Steve
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  29. #29
    cane corso
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    Good luck brother and thanks for the write ups. Truly a rare asset to the forum.

  30. #30
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by cane corso View Post
    Good luck brother and thanks for the write ups. Truly a rare asset to the forum.

    I appreciate that.
    Thanks.

  31. #31
    play4win
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    they losing game 1, tampa clowns fackin it up right now

  32. #32
    KRIT
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    This has been an interesting game, changed my perspective a little. While I do agree good pitching beats good hitting, is Tampa’s pitching that good? Enough to outweigh the mismatch in bats? Morton is legit. Glasnow is good but not shutdown. Snell has had ups and downs this year.

    Always felt like the game for Tampa will be tomorrow. Snell up against whichever scrub Roberts goes with.

  33. #33
    stevenash
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    ^
    Yeah.

    This game has not gone the way I envisioned it would.

    OK, we move on.
    It's a seven game set.

  34. #34
    Fred The Hammer
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    Hit Over 6.5 live in the same inning


    LA is due. All they have to do imo is pitch around Arozenia or whatever his name is. LA in 5, but I hope you're right somehow. Tampa has been fun to watch

  35. #35
    JMobile
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