Sammy is more of a Gut Guy
Most old school guys are
Number crunchers are younger
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10-18-20 03:59 AM #1
Are you a Numbers Bettor or a Gut/Feel kind of bettor
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10-18-20 05:28 AM #2
The numbers often determine how my gut feels, but sometimes I'm 0 for 3 and sometimes I'm 3 for 3.
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10-18-20 05:45 AM #3
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10-18-20 06:26 AM #4
hunches here. very rarely numbers.
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10-18-20 06:29 AM #5
there are a few TOP # guys here... one has red hair
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10-18-20 06:30 AM #6
Brady big effort today
Why??
Hunch Sammy
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10-18-20 08:05 AM #7
Numbers, always numbers. Only way to profits long term
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10-18-20 08:07 AM #8
watch film bet with eyes not heart
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10-18-20 12:49 PM #9
Numbers to make initial scan of games.
Then evaluate weather, injuries, momentum, & maybe some information from top cappers to cull the list further.
Finally, use gut to make final selections.
A "wholistic" method on capping.
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10-18-20 12:55 PM #10
Sammy, this post isn't even right.
Originally Posted by Sam Odom
Sammy is more of a Gut Guy
Most old school guys are
Number crunchers are younger
Very few become old school on gut alone due the fact that emotions short circuit rational thinking.
If you can learn to quantify the "gut feeling" then you might have a chance of reaching the level of the real survivors of the "old school"
I could offer a lot of advice on this topic altogether, there's is a lot to it for sure. When I say a lot I mean pages of writing or a long video.
In that sense, not a bad thread, Sammy.
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10-18-20 12:56 PM #11
I have said since the first day I signed up here... Originally Posted by KVB
"Keep track of your bets and why you made them."
Pretty simple advice, really, for such a revealing thing.
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10-18-20 01:02 PM #12
I’m a combination of both. The “EYE” test ends up being the death of me every week.
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10-18-20 01:13 PM #13
Tracking is important because while some can be very good at the subjective, gut, method, any runs one way or another will cause emotions that jeapoardize the gut capper.
He may not be able to id every variable in his gut, but he should start somewhere.
For thoss gut games, make a sheet with a vertical line down the middle. Write the pros and cons in each column for each play.
If it's Denver vs. NE, don't make one column for why to bet Denver, and one column for why to bet NE, that's a different excercise.
Instead, take your conclusion (say Den +3) then proceed to make pros and cons on your sheet for that bet.
Keep those sheets, learn what it might be that is triggering your gut.
It takes time and self reflection, but it will make the good subjective capper even better.
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10-18-20 01:17 PM #14
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10-18-20 01:18 PM #15
Numbers bettors always outperform hunch guys
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10-18-20 01:19 PM #16
Numbers mean nothing if you can pick winners.
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10-18-20 01:20 PM #17
Sam you may as well be asking if you're a mega square or have at least a bit of a clue
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10-18-20 01:20 PM #18
I think you need both to be a winner! You have to be able to define value with numbers and also interject fundamentalism with need to win/injury issues/weather/home field. et al.
Numbers guys do not win all the time.
Old school/fundamental guys do not win all the time.
Ho's and scalpers win all of the time!
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10-18-20 01:22 PM #19
Ronald, Originally Posted by ronald
You have 22 in the hole. The flop comes A2K.
You are getting PAID my friend!
It's like WOW.Nomination(s):This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: KVB
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10-18-20 01:23 PM #20
This makes no sense. Originally Posted by ronald
There's a difference between picking the winning bet for a game, and actually making winning bets.
Huge difference.
When you do it meaningfully, like some of us, you learn to appreciate the difference.
Just ask Lakeshow.
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10-18-20 01:32 PM #21
Yes, a piece of loose leaf paper and a list is the key to winning. Originally Posted by KVB
Tracking is important because while some can be very good at the subjective, gut, method, any runs one way or another will cause emotions that jeapoardize the gut capper.
He may not be able to id every variable in his gut, but he should start somewhere.
For thoss gut games, make a sheet with a vertical line down the middle. Write the pros and cons in each column for each play.
If it's Denver vs. NE, don't make one column for why to bet Denver, and one column for why to bet NE, that's a different excercise.
Instead, take your conclusion (say Den +3) then proceed to make pros and cons on your sheet for that bet.
Keep those sheets, learn what it might be that is triggering your gut.
It takes time and self reflection, but it will make the good subjective capper even better.
BAUS
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10-18-20 01:34 PM #22
NUMBERS here always, the only way you are going to win in the long run, if you bet daily
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10-18-20 01:38 PM #23
Originally Posted by BAUS
I don't think we're ready to get them to winning yet, let's just get them to stop making bad losses first.
Like I said...
It's possible I've taught more gamblers to win than all the gamblers that you know, and that they know, combined. Originally Posted by KVB
We are a rare breed.
KVB
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10-18-20 01:39 PM #24
are not the picks coming from the #'s Originally Posted by ronald
Points Awarded:
BuckyOne gave veriableodds 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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10-18-20 01:42 PM #25
Don't waste time arguing with BAUS. Originally Posted by KVB
I don't think we're ready to get them to winning yet, let's just get them to stop making bad losses first.
Like I said...
It's possible I've taught more gamblers to win than all the gamblers that you know, and that they know, combined.
We are a rare breed.
KVB
He isn't an SBR PRO like me and you.
Will try your paper and column tracking method on the SNF game.
Thanks.
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10-18-20 01:48 PM #26
Yeah, they don't get that even the subective capper's gut is often (not always) being triggered by numbers which were built form other numbers. Originally Posted by veriableodds
Undrestanding that process is important.
Those who just think picking winners, which is the easiest part of successful sportsbetting, by far, don't realize that number and prices exist to negate the profitability of just grabbing the winners.
Shit, in the 2016-2017 NBA regular season the GS Warriors were 67-15 and a bettor betting the same unit on them to win each game that season would have lost money.
If the gut capper can't understand that, he could be in bigger trouble than the tourist who has no gut and uses no numbers.
KVB
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10-18-20 01:50 PM #27
He's just trying to get ahead of where everyone is, which is ok. Originally Posted by ronald
The point is to track your bets and most importantly why you made them.
There is tremendous value in that alone.
KVB
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10-18-20 01:54 PM #28
Originally Posted by KVB
bring me to part-2
just because the #'s bring picks one has to discern in great depth to calculate if it has value
value= whole different planet
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10-18-20 01:57 PM #29
Yup. Originally Posted by veriableodds
Gambling is a numbers game, very few are subjective long term winners, it's like having the gut feeling on the roulette or blackjack table.
It's not true to say "but no, the numbers aren't set in stone because there are unpredictable human players on the field and an oddsmaker and bookmaker."
In the end though, if you make enough plays to reach your ever changing fluid expectation, than that concept of humans is rendered as noise.
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10-18-20 02:09 PM #30
Originally Posted by veriableodds
Good Point!
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10-18-20 02:10 PM #31
The numbers tell my gut what to do.
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