1. #1
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Made A Calculator For Difference In Risk To Win $100 Between Underdog and Favorite

    I just made a calculator messing with some simple math using a Google Spreadsheet and some simple formulas that my dumb brain could slowly start to calculate and the results were more alarming than I ever thought possible (not to be dramatic). But seriously.

    Using European odds and no juice/no vig, betting a 1.08 favorite or a 13.5 underdog, the difference is 156.25x more risk to bet the favorite!




    I thought this one was super interesting. When betting a 1.7 favorite, underdog should be 2.428 without juice and you actually are risking TWO TIMES AS MUCH to win the same amount with a 1.7 favorite.



    I could keep going with examples but to me, the last example tells me two things:

    1. A 1.7 favorite is a much larger favorite than I previously thought (You would have to bet 2x the risk to get the same profit as the underdog without juice)

    2. Underdogs are grossly undervalued by recreational bettors as well as long-time gamblers. A 1.25 favorite vs. a 5.0 underdog is actually a 16x difference in risk to win the same amount!


    What I took from this: if I can find a winning 5.0 dog for $25, or a winning 1.25 favorite for $400, it's the same winning amount. The catch is I have 5x to get my 5.0 dog correct to break even. One single mis-step with a 1.25 favorite loses me 16 chances at a 5.0 dog.

    My math is surprisingly college dropout level if that, I hardly made it through high school but let me know if I made a mistake and if you found this helpful or interesting.

    I'll drop a harmless google spreadsheet calculator link here as well for you guys if you want soon. Just change the first column and everything else follows (Favorite column) So anything from 1.01 to 1.99 and see why it's so much better to just wait for the perfect underdog in most scenarios. And also see why betting a favorite can actually be UNDERVALUED when you think about it, since really a favorite moneyline is actually much much more thin than you might think according to the simple calculator/maths I'm employing.



    Here are the formulas if you'd like to learn to make cool calculators in google sheets and mess around with it yourself! Remember all you need to do is change the first column, then all the rest will tell you how awful it is to parlay favorites at times. You really don't need to lose very often to lose a LOT in the long run. But you can be wrong most of the time and still wind up profitable as an underdog bettor!



    Final note: when you think about it, a 1.08 favorite should be a 1 in 12.5 favorite. But looking at this math, using my simple stupid logic, I am starting to think of it more like a 156.25x favorite. Because you'd have to risk that much more in order to win the same amount (without juice!)!!

    Begging you to correct me if I am at all out of line with some of this thinking.


    Feel Free to copy paste the spreadsheet into your own spreadsheet so that you can use the calculator for yourself. Remember just change the favorite column (A column, first column) and the rest will follow.

    Leave me some points or drop a comment if you found this useful or interesting!
    Last edited by DoubleRedDragon; 10-18-20 at 04:23 AM. Reason: math was off

  2. #2
    Sam Odom
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    numbers Guys are checking this out

  3. #3
    cincinnatikid513
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    underdog lives matter too
    Points Awarded:

    DoubleRedDragon gave cincinnatikid513 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Odom View Post
    numbers Guys are checking this out
    be easy on me numbers guys, i'm just a lil square

  5. #5
    pologq
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    thanks for sharing this. plus your name is of one of the best video games of all time. you are A Ok with me.

  6. #6
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Quote Originally Posted by pologq View Post
    thanks for sharing this. plus your name is of one of the best video games of all time. you are A Ok with me.
    Thank you sir. Glad you got something out of it.

    It really hit me as something valuable when I started messing with the numbers!


    Which video game is Double Red Dragon again? I think I named this after my mayan astrology sign



    but I also was a Nintendo and Sega Genesis late 80's 90's kid and loved that one game what's it called....

    But maybe you're talking about this one (not sure i ever played it)

    anyways back to topic
    Last edited by DoubleRedDragon; 10-18-20 at 09:15 AM. Reason: mayan astrology BS

  7. #7
    RudyRuetigger
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    im sure this is already in one of sbr's calculators

  8. #8
    jjgold
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    Excellent guy

    Thanks

  9. #9
    pavyracer
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    A calculator will not help you pick winners.

  10. #10
    funnyb25
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    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    A calculator will not help you pick winners.
    80% of the site couldn't pick a winner already knowing the final score.

  11. #11
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    80% of the site couldn't pick a winner already knowing the final score.
    what about the other 30%?

  12. #12
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    im sure this is already in one of sbr's calculators
    Sure, link me. It's still a useful exercise to be able to create these simple calculators. I even made a hedging calculator that I can share soon, which I'm sure SBR has one of their own but I like mine still.
    Quote Originally Posted by pavyracer View Post
    A calculator will not help you pick winners.
    But it will help you beat the juice even if you lose more than 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by funnyb25 View Post
    80% of the site couldn't pick a winner already knowing the final score.
    So if my team wins by 4, I win the -6 spread right?

    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Excellent guy

    Thanks
    JJ, what is good my guy

  13. #13
    RudyRuetigger
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  14. #14
    jjgold
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    This is real content

  15. #15
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Great resource
    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    This is real content
    Right? It's so simple but it's almost something I haven't thought about yet.




    Here is the hedging calculator I made a couple years back!Here is a Google Spreadsheet hedging calculator I have made, it's a bit complicated, I will break it down in a later post. But basically you plug in the initial odds, and it tells you exactly what odds you need in order to break even!

    Copy the document into your own so you can change the values.

    The top section (first 4 rows or so) you change the underdog european odds to your initial wager.

    I think this one still needs work but you get the idea. I believe the bottom four rows are for deciding how much profit you want to make!! So beyond breaking even what odds do you want for what profit, and then it even tells you what the final odds would have been if you just bet the other side plus the initial side, so if you took a +300 then bet off at -120 on the other side in-game, it would tell you that your initial bet would have been a winner before the game even ends and at something like +150 ods or whatever (estimation?)





    Last edited by DoubleRedDragon; 10-18-20 at 12:31 PM. Reason: too complicated for my own good!

  16. #16
    Tanko
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    Thanks DRD.
    Great information.

    There are a lot of experienced Pros on SBR that have this knowledge "burnt" into their brains and its second nature. These are the real Pros. Then there are even more Pros on SBR who say they know this stuff, but couldn't pick a winner the day after the game was played.

    It's a good exercise to go through to help develop a deeper understanding of the numbers when capping games. I have done similar spreadsheets every now and then to avoid becoming complacent, developing bad habits, and drifting away from what are good practices. I also enjoy crunching numbers like this (stats guy).

    I will definitely be checking out the spreadsheet. Thanks.

  17. #17
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Happy to help @Tanko. Feel free to share any spreadsheets/interesting calculators you guys make too or come up with. Here's a breakdown of the hedging calculator I shared above, though it's a little off topic from the OP and we can go back to discussing why betting favorites is so thin of a margin for error.

    But here is the hedging calculator breakdown!! I still love this thing to play around with.



    Again here's the Google Sheets link for this hedging calculator. You'll have to copy and paste it to get the proper formula to use on your own spreadsheet!

  18. #18
    DoubleRedDragon
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    has anyone gotten the chance to mess around with these numbers at all?

  19. #19
    RudyRuetigger
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    I don't understand why you are trying to create these when they already exist

    Here is arbitage calculator

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...ge-calculator/

  20. #20
    DoubleRedDragon
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    I don't understand why you are trying to create these when they already exist

    Here is arbitage calculator

    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...ge-calculator/
    Happy to answer that: #1 to understand how to make it myself and do it as an exercise
    #2 I have some variations from that arbitrage calculator. That is a helpful resource though, and I will use it surely- but realize that I actually made a more advanced hedging calculator that allows you to either enter in a bet amount for bet #2 and it fills in what odds needed to exit completely, or you can enter in odds for bet #2 and it tells you what bet amount you will need to exit completely. Then it tells you what the profit is and the overall odds as if you bet a lock to start with.

    I get that people build these but I also thought it was interesting to share the process in order to make one yourself (I provided the formulas).


    Anyways I eat this stuff up so thanks for sharing Maybe it's too boring for this forum LOL. We just go for winners and locks

  21. #21
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by DoubleRedDragon View Post
    Happy to answer that: #1 to understand how to make it myself and do it as an exercise
    #2 I have some variations from that arbitrage calculator. That is a helpful resource though, and I will use it surely- but realize that I actually made a more advanced hedging calculator that allows you to either enter in a bet amount for bet #2 and it fills in what odds needed to exit completely, or you can enter in odds for bet #2 and it tells you what bet amount you will need to exit completely. Then it tells you what the profit is and the overall odds as if you bet a lock to start with.

    I get that people build these but I also thought it was interesting to share the process in order to make one yourself (I provided the formulas).


    Anyways I eat this stuff up so thanks for sharing Maybe it's too boring for this forum LOL. We just go for winners and locks
    sounds good, just wondered why you were doing it


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