[kelly@Vegas]

Complete over reaction here with packers being the favorite. This is the spot where 99 percent of joe public takes packers here and thinks brady is done and packers roll. I actually make Bucs the favorite here, well they should be but we know why they aren’t. Also thanks to jamal williams for saying some dumb shit about brady and giving them bulletin board material now.

I’m waiting on sunday to see the public inflate this line with all the packers money rolling in so i can grab a good price on the bucs.

This type of game spot reminds me of last year between Seahawks and rams. I think Seahawks were undefeated on the road coming in to face the rams. Rams were about a 1 or 2 point under dog at home and they rolled them on prime time.

This is a 5 percent play on bucs here. Tail if you want.

[pologq]

packers will def get public money by sunday at 12pm. everyone thinks rodgers will automatically roll thru. not saying it is not possible but i do agree the line will move.

[kelly@Vegas]

I like bucs so much here. Going to be a big bet for me here. Usually I do a couple big ones a year.

[KVB]

Not a bad look here at all.

Good Luck

[thomorino]

The key is godwin who is battling a hamstring everyone knows is not fully healed, I’m on Green Bay.

[kelly@Vegas]

The key is godwin who is battling a hamstring everyone knows is not fully healed, I’m on Green Bay.

Coming into the year the sexy team was the bucs with tom brady and all that offense. The key was the fade them in the beginning when they were over valued. Now everyone is off them and saying brady is washed because they forgot what down it was lol this is the spot where they are undervalued and the packers who have played no defense at all this year are over valued in this spot. I really can’t write it any clearer. You make 300 bets on this type of line value all year in spots like this your going to be in the 1 percent of people who actually profit long term. Win or lose this is the right play.

[thomorino]

Coming into the year the sexy team was the bucs with tom brady and all that offense. The key was the fade them in the beginning when they were over valued. Now everyone is off them and saying brady is washed because they forgot what down it was lol this is the spot where they are undervalued and the packers who have played no defense at all this year are over valued in this spot. I really can’t write it any clearer. You make 300 bets on this type of line value all year in spots like this your going to be in the 1 percent of people who actually profit long term. Win or lose this is the right play.

I disagree, perception of Brady and Tampa hasn’t changed that much. The Bears are a respected efense and Brady was very good the week before the Bears game.

People don’t realize how good Green Bay’s defense is. They were top five against the pass last year and their run defense is much better this year. I don’t see godwin being close to a hundred percent, hamstring injuries that are significant don’t heal in 2 weeks.

[kelly@Vegas]

I disagree, perception of Brady and Tampa hasn’t changed that much. The Bears are a respected efense and Brady was very good the week before the Bears game.

People don’t realize how good Green Bay’s defense is. They were top five against the pass last year and their run defense is much better this year. I don’t see godwin being close to a hundred percent, hamstring injuries that are significant don’t heal in 2 weeks.

You do realize that was a horrible spot for them going on the road to Chicago against a tough d on a short week not to mention with the look ahead to the biggest game of the season against rodgers and the undefeated packers at home lol you do realize that right lol also missing godwin too who is back and they have extra prep to prepare

[thomorino]

You do realize that was a horrible spot for them going on the road to Chicago against a tough d on a short week not to mention with the look ahead to the biggest game of the season against rodgers and the undefeated packers at home lol you do realize that right lol also missing godwin too who is back and they have extra prep to prepare

You don’t understand my argument. I agree Thursday games on the road are a tough spot. It was a tough spot for the Bears too though to prep on a short week with a new an since they switched to Foles. We agree there.

Where we disagree is on the perception of this Tampa team. I don’t think the market has a low perception of Brady and the Bucs because of 1 game, and even though Godwin will play he never had a full practice he just did light jogging, so I don’t see him as fully healthy.

Green Bay is close to fully healthy coming off a bye, and they will get Kenny Clark and davante adams back.

[KnuckleHeadz]

You don’t understand my argument. I agree Thursday games on the road are a tough spot. It was a tough spot for the Bears too though to prep on a short week with a new an since they switched to Foles. We agree there.

Where we disagree is on the perception of this Tampa team. I don’t think the market has a low perception of Brady and the Bucs because of 1 game, and even though Godwin will play he never had a full practice he just did light jogging, so I don’t see him as fully healthy.

Green Bay is close to fully healthy coming off a bye, and they will get Kenny Clark and davante adams back.

You close to -50 units in your OWN thread.. please stay the penetrate in there and let Grown Men have a discussion

[KVB]

You close to -50 units in your OWN thread.. please stay the penetrate in there and let Grown Men have a discussion

Oh gawd, now Morono's posting in these threads?

This just goes from bad to worse.

[kelly@Vegas]

You don’t understand my argument. I agree Thursday games on the road are a tough spot. It was a tough spot for the Bears too though to prep on a short week with a new an since they switched to Foles. We agree there.

Where we disagree is on the perception of this Tampa team. I don’t think the market has a low perception of Brady and the Bucs because of 1 game, and even though Godwin will play he never had a full practice he just did light jogging, so I don’t see him as fully healthy.

Green Bay is close to fully healthy coming off a bye, and they will get Kenny Clark and davante adams back.

Low perception?! The look ahead line was bucs -3 lmao

[thomorino]

You close to -50 units in your OWN thread.. please stay the penetrate in there and let Grown Men have a discussion

Oh gawd, now Morono's posting in these threads?

This just goes from bad to worse.

Shut the fuk up you dumb shit, I have a very strong lifetime record across the board including in the nfl, you post and track nothing.

2 dumb shits.

[Da Manster!]

I like Green Bay in this spot...they are red hot and playing as well as anyone else in the league right now...Aaron Rodgers is playing lights out and at an MVP level once again...and now the Pack are well rested coming off their bye week and a good chance superstar WR Devonte Adams will be back in the lineup and that makes Green Bay's offense explosive and almost unstoppable...No doubt Brady and the Bucs will be up to the challenge and probably put up a good fight for three quarters but I just don't see them being able to keep up with A-Rod and Co.

[thomorino]

Low perception?! The look ahead line was bucs -3 lmao

You are proving my point, the line for this game has moved over mostly dead numbers. 3 point underdogs cover the spread 90 percent of the time, so the line move hasn’t changed the fact that 90 percent of the time this game will likely be a pick the winner game.

[thomorino]

I like Green Bay in this spot...they are red hot and playing as well as anyone else in the league right now...Aaron Rodgers is playing lights out and at an MVP level once again...and now the Pack are well rested coming off their bye week and a good chance superstar WR Devonte Adams will be back in the lineup and that makes Green Bay's offense explosive and almost unstoppable...No doubt Brady and the Bucs will be up to the challenge and probably put up a good fight for three quarters but I just don't see them being able to keep up with A-Rod and Co.

Adams isn’t even on the injury report he’s playing, Packers have the better offense and defense, and the far better offensive line.

[kelly@Vegas]

I like Green Bay in this spot...they are red hot and playing as well as anyone else in the league right now...Aaron Rodgers is playing lights out and at an MVP level once again...and now the Pack are well rested coming off their bye week and a good chance superstar WR Devonte Adams will be back in the lineup and that makes Green Bay's offense explosive and almost unstoppable...No doubt Brady and the Bucs will be up to the challenge and probably put up a good fight for three quarters but I just don't see them being able to keep up with A-Rod and Co.

Fair enough thats why they play the game. But if your giving me plus money in a game that looks and feels like a coin flip ill take that every time for a home short dog where the look ahead line was -3. At the end of the day handicapping is more about numbers and finding value. Once the game starts you can’t predict the randomness that goes on with bad calls, turnovers etc you just have to know that long term if you place good bets you will be successful. For the price im getting here with tampa im happy knowing win or lose i placed a good bet

[KnuckleHeadz]

Fair enough thats why they play the game. But if your giving me plus money in a game that looks and feels like a coin flip ill take that every time for a home short dog where the look ahead line was -3. At the end of the day handicapping is more about numbers and finding value. Once the game starts you can’t predict the randomness that goes on with bad calls, turnovers etc you just have to know that long term if you place good bets you will be successful. For the price im getting here with tampa im happy knowing win or lose i placed a good bet

You and JJ ever meet in Vegas again KST?

[no1here]

Tampa Bay failed me last week. Chicago is not the better team. Green Bay mighty strong this year, top five for sure. Would be good idea for SBR posters to rank the teams top to bottom weekly. List could have what odds should they be based upon level vs level.

I like the way morino talks in this thread and needs to stick to business not the low lives.

[jjgold]

All over Brady here bounce back and rested

Good luck

[kelly@Vegas]

About time this fraud packers team played against a real d

[kelly@Vegas]

Whole forum on packers smh should have listened

[pologq]

kelly i am on bucs. the look ahead line should have never changed after a week the packers did not even play. your boy teddy said that.

[BeatTheJerk]

Coming into the year the sexy team was the bucs with tom brady and all that offense. The key was the fade them in the beginning when they were over valued. Now everyone is off them and saying brady is washed because they forgot what down it was lol this is the spot where they are undervalued and the packers who have played no defense at all this year are over valued in this spot. I really can’t write it any clearer. You make 300 bets on this type of line value all year in spots like this your going to be in the 1 percent of people who actually profit long term. Win or lose this is the right play.

[Seattle Slew]

Good call.

[d2bets]

Is this still gonna go under? Maybe 55 max?

[Da Manster!]

nice hit and good call, Kelly!...

[jjgold]

Great!

[johnnyvegas13]

Well done kelly

[Bostongambler]

Good job Miss Ripa!

[cheezits]

Good call kelly

[mjsuax13]

Where is Morino to argue with Kelly? The dumb shit coward is buying his way out of a beat down by the bookie.

[kelly@Vegas]

Niners was the same exact spot as this game. Another terrible line books had to make because the public is too dumb. With legalized sports gambling becoming more prevalent your going to see so many over reactions causing lines to move 6 points because of recency bias. Rams played well last week and niners got blown out by dolphins with jimmy g benched. Of course the public going to hammer the rams and force the look ahead line of the niners -3 to niners plus 2.5. That now opens up value. You do this enough you will be limited by the books win or lose because long term you will beat them and they know it

[thomorino]

Where is Morino to argue with Kelly? The dumb shit coward is buying his way out of a beat down by the bookie.

You are a coward dumb shit.

[maggiethebestdog]

Niners was the same exact spot as this game. Another terrible line books had to make because the public is too dumb. With legalized sports gambling becoming more prevalent your going to see so many over reactions causing lines to move 6 points because of recency bias. Rams played well last week and niners got blown out by dolphins with jimmy g benched. Of course the public going to hammer the rams and force the look ahead line of the niners -3 to niners plus 2.5. That now opens up value. You do this enough you will be limited by the books win or lose because long term you will beat them and they know it

I must have missed your niners pick thread

Please point it out to me if I did

So after they win, you let us know what a lock it was

Kinda like how you got the better line on the Cowboys tonight, but didn't post your "play" until after the line move

Hmmmmmm

LOL

Kelly the fraud