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VIG vs POINTS?
can someone please answer this question. "is it better to to take the higher vig versus taking less points?
For example, if you wanted to bet the favorite and pinnacle has the favorite at -3 with the line at -110 OR at heritage the favorite is -2.5 at -115...which is the better value?
In this case, -2.5 -115 is way better because you're moving off an ultra-key number for only a nickel. It always depend on the number and how much you're paying.
as long as the vig on that extra 1/2 point is not too high it is worth the less points imo. it also, as mentioned by drunkhorse, should involve a key number.
You didn't even mention what sport, which matters a lot. Nonetheless, that half point is always going to be worth more than 5 cents. In the NFL, that half point or or off the 3 is worth a lot. Don't recall the exact figure, but probably worth somewhere around 20 cents. But if the spread is -4.5 or -5 that half point is probably not worth much more than 5 cents.Originally Posted by stil370
You can pretty much figure it out with a chart showing how often each spread hits and then doing the math.
Here's a guide:
sportsbookreview.com/picks/tools/half-point-calculator/
It really doesn't depend, unless you consider it depending on what the bettor calculates as push rates, and that can vary for different reasons.
Basically what we’re doing here is making a conversion. To get that conversion we have to know the push rates of a three point spread. But first, we have to figure out expected value.
This thread is a good read and here’s a post from it…
Dividing that expectation by what is risked will give you a percentage for the EV, something outlined in that quoted post.
Let’s work through you original problem where I suspect -2.5 (-115) is going to be a hell of a deal.
If Pinny has -3 (-110) we’ll consider that the “fair” 50-50 line to work with. First thing we need is the push rate of 3. For simple purposes as I have ways to refine it, that’s taking all games with spreads of -3 and seeing how many will result in a push.
I have a way to calculate push rates, including ways to calculate the push rates being used by books, and use my own when handicapping. SBR has a ½ point calculator that can also be used for a rough estimate…
https://www.sportsbookreview.com/pic...nt-calculator/
That calculator shows a push probability of 9.79%. For the sake of this post, we’ll call it 10%. So if Pinny has the fair 50-50 line at 3 (-110), we can make some assumptions (under an efficient market theory):
Team A covers the spread 45% of the time, fails to cover 45% of the time and then we can expect the remaining 10% to be a push. So let’s work with that and risk ‘to win’ a unit. Let’s subtract what we expect to win from what we expect to lose…
Team Stil covers the -3(-110) points:
.45 (1) - .45 (1.1) = -.045 or a loss of -4.1% (divided by 1.1 risk)
Team Still covers the -2.5 (-115) points:
Remember, this time we get the 3 point results, instead of the push:
.55 (1) - .45 (1.15) = .0325 or an expectation of a win of 2.82% (divided by the 1.15 risk)
If you can get -2.5 (-115) while Pinny and BM are offering -3 (-110) then you should get as much as you can.
We have a 6.92% difference in expected value between the two bets. This is why, on a 3 point fair line, you will not likely see such a generous -115 price on the 2.5, in the NFL.
So when we consider whether or not it depends on which bet to choose, the variables of the push rates you are using and of the price offered on the, not “fair price” Pinny line but the line that is half point off.
Often the market (books will vary huge here), around the 3 point line, will offer a slightly better bet on the -2.5 or +3.5 because of the power of 3, a number that nearly 15% of all NFL games have landed on over the last 20 years.
Last edited by KVB; 10-15-20 at 12:51 PM.
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There was an error above that I corrected. When calcualting the % EV you must divide by what is risked.
I originally used 100 as I am used to the flat risking of 1 unit, regardless of the prices charged.
great post KVB
I always look at the juice, but take a step back when I see 0.5 point off a key number with reduced juice
are they just baiting me? it takes a lot to move a line off a key #, and I have to go back and search why.
That's just me though
You guys are excellent!
d2bets DrunkHorseplayer pologq
KVB SBR Tony
Cant't find better resources than the above.
yea, and forgot to mention it was football that I was thinking about.
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