Me thinks so. Time to start loading up on some Unders tonight for next week.
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Too early maybe another month or 6 weeksComment -
Look for market moving the openers. There is not enough data to have real trends that are meaningful statistically. But it's possible we have enough data where the market over reacts to variancecComment -
No. It's called November. Glenn you been doing this for years. The books don't careComment -
There's a lot of this and that in this thread, not sure where to begin.
Is it a market"correction" if a bunch of UNDERS come and make the OVER/UNDER count more even?
Because that's pretty simplistic and near useless.
There are micro and macro levels here, including indicators. I've written about this before and it's best showed by example in real time so I suppose only a handful of you will understand when I say we came across an indicator in a market function.
In simple, summation terms, tonight's game helped to not only offer settlement for the simple ones counting over/unders, but just imagine the rise in tonight's settlement game Total was like the market reacting to the season to date OVER flurry, in a supportive way, as bettors want to ride a trend. The peak at 46 and pull back to 45.5 showed us the settlement number, where us sharps tolerated the movement and stepped in with UNDER plays. The final score sent the message, but that's far beyond this thread, that's FlyMe analysis.
With it coming down to the two point conversion to go 45 or 47 (something I predicted at half time) it was clear we just had the market correction. There are other examples, including Vegas/Buffalo, that will help contribute to the macro picture.
Everything else will be the bettors trying to chase that Under until they are happy with the OVER/UNDER Streak/No streak result, likely some out of favor arbirtrary baseline expectation.
Some will win, some will lose.
Some were born to sing the blues.
Oh, the movie never ends.
It goes on and on, and on, and on...
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When it comes to what to bet there's a difference between betting on the specific game winner and making the winning bet. Chasing UNDERS because there are OVERs will get you the first, but being given a fish and actually fishing are two very different things as time goes on.
But hey, I say grab a buck while the market extremes let you.
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God my head hurts even trying to analyze thisComment -
The reason games are going over is the rules favor offenses, tackling has been garbage, neither of those 2 factors are going to change and the books aren’t going to make major adjustments after 3 games.Comment -
You have to understand that to get meaningful picture of a market like this you have to go back a number of plays, like last year. It involves a broad spectrum analysis of the lines, including how they moved, how much, through what numbers, in what kind of game (volume betting determinations) and comparisons.
We have to make dynamic, specific line comparisons and not just within the team. We’re talking about means and medians and ratings that generate specific types of games so that similar situation from the past can be compared to unique games now.
Give me every game that’s at night, with these forecasts, using these metrics with teams rated this and this among division, conference and league, etc. Then show me what kind of pressures there were at that time in the market as well (that’s what makes it dynamic). We can develop a line graph that shows the market and its adjustments.
Actually it’s several graphs.
Don’t forget to throw in the results betting wise, normalizing for chance in those situations, and margins of covering OVER or UNDER.
That’s important, the margins. Just because a bunch of UNDERS show up it doesn’t necessarily mean the market has corrected. We have to account for whether or not the market actually did correct. Maybe there were just a bunch of low scores and the market is still off, even if the O/U is now closer to 50-50. Fortunately we can and looking at the slope of our O/U difference, and using another chart that overlays market movement and margin of win/loss help us clear up that picture a little bit.
Probably should do a video. There can be so much if you want to dig into it. For my office, these are just more things generated daily that we use to get the macro picture of the markets, especially when NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB, NBA, and NHL are all happening at once.
Here’s a tip, the season running average how much a team went over or under the Total can be very telling. As the season progresses, the league develops a baseline that you can work with for any team. A simple of the progressing season can be very telling.
That’s all macro, for a micro level you need to address each game individually. I make all kinds of lines, including a public gauge, multiple forecasts, and predictions for the openers.
These things help us determine whether or not the market actually corrects, and helps us stay ahead of it instead of betting into one side when the the lines forced the gamble.
Follow your favorite team and their lines, just like a stock, you'll get a feel for what's going on each week.
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Sorry guys, I just want to add something because this thread bothers me, at least its title.
I mentioned that getting a run of UNDERs doesn’t necessarily mean the market is out of whack. Who says this latest run of OVERs even put that market out of whack?
What’s the market here?
Look at NYG/LAR…26 points are scored. The Total was 50. Do you guys think there is a line the book could have “adjusted” to that would have changed that to an OVER? Only if they want to.
Remember, the line doesn’t just reflect the player’s wants, it also reflects the books desire and the line is not meant to be a prediction of the score.
How about NO/DET…64 points scored. The Total was 51.5, but it opened at 55? What does that tell us? Next time these guys meet, does the market need to adjust to a 64 point line?
What about CLE/DAL…81 points scored. The early line was 54, and it moved to 56.5. Just how high do they need to move that line until you say the market adjusted?
Or do you just need a day of UNDER results to say it’ adjusted?
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?Comment -
So let me get a little more specific, without doing a video.
Think of the games above, and compare them to a couple of other games.
BUF/LV…53 points…opens at 49.5 and moves up to 53.
Going into this week Buffalo had averaged 14.2 points over the Total and all 3 games were OVERs. There’s more to it though.
In week 1 it was 5 points over the Total, week 2 it bumped to an average of 11, then by week 3 up to 14.2 average points OVER the Total line. It’s a rising slope.
Then for Las Vegas, it was a falling slope, but not much with the average of 16, then 13.5 then 12, again with all 3 games OVERs.
These averages are in small company and on the UPPER end of the league here. It’s no wonder the line jumped. The push has helped push both teams toward their baseline.
PHI/SF…45 points…opens at 43 moves up to 46.
Philly enters the week with a season average of just 4 over the Total, in the middle of the pack of the NFL, as they went OVER the first two games and Under the third. SF entered the week, with that D of theirs, at just -.3, doing the opposite going UNDER in the first game then slightly over the next two.
If we put every week on this chart and do this year after year, it can get interesting. These lines will tighten down into a range and it will display some of that market fluidity I think this thread was looking for. The STD and average in the chart include every team in the NFL, to get an idea of where these teams stand....
We can play with the time frame and averages to see a more recent effect of the league as the season to date can be more helpful early season. There are some alerts to look for, like a crossing of 0 and by season’s end most teams are in a narrow range around that 0 line as the lines tighten.
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Books get it all back and way moreComment -
not sure if a correction happens unless they start approaching 60 o/u for even regular games between basic offenses. seems like teams reach 54 easily now.
i think defenses just did not have the time to practice and get their schemes perfected. combine more practice with intense games as the season progresses and there is a correction.Comment -
everything comes back to 50% for the last 100 years
Books will never adjustComment -
K,So let me get a little more specific, without doing a video.
Think of the games above, and compare them to a couple of other games.
BUF/LV…53 points…opens at 49.5 and moves up to 53.
Going into this week Buffalo had averaged 14.2 points over the Total and all 3 games were OVERs. There’s more to it though.
In week 1 it was 5 points over the Total, week 2 it bumped to an average of 11, then by week 3 up to 14.2 average points OVER the Total line. It’s a rising slope.
Then for Las Vegas, it was a falling slope, but not much with the average of 16, then 13.5 then 12, again with all 3 games OVERs.
These averages are in small company and on the UPPER end of the league here. It’s no wonder the line jumped. The push has helped push both teams toward their baseline.
PHI/SF…45 points…opens at 43 moves up to 46.
Philly enters the week with a season average of just 4 over the Total, in the middle of the pack of the NFL, as they went OVER the first two games and Under the third. SF entered the week, with that D of theirs, at just -.3, doing the opposite going UNDER in the first game then slightly over the next two.
If we put every week on this chart and do this year after year, it can get interesting. These lines will tighten down into a range and it will display some of that market fluidity I think this thread was looking for. The STD and average in the chart include every team in the NFL, to get an idea of where these teams stand....
We can play with the time frame and averages to see a more recent effect of the league as the season to date can be more helpful early season. There are some alerts to look for, like a crossing of 0 and by season’s end most teams are in a narrow range around that 0 line as the lines tighten.
Thanks for your replies. Is wasn't my intention that you lost sleep on a Sunday night/ Monday morning. I did get a good laugh thinking about it as I read your posts. I could see it was bothering you
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Great posts though. Your analysis goes way deep for most here. I get it though but it is painstaking work to grab all that data and then upload into the software.
I was simply trying to alert others that there might be some quick money for the taking, like last nights game. We now have the early Monday night game going Under also.
I do try to keep things more simple, other than my horse racing program, that is still in the works.
I do like the chart in your last post. That could be VERY useful. I will look into doing something like that with some tweaks. Especially with wind.
Now get some sleep tonight, I'm afraid to ask you anything else, lol.
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college totals are regularly off the number by 3TD.
Books post what the math/probability says the number is.Comment -
Ranger
You’re always looking for an angle it doesn’t existComment -
did you get on the unders tonight?Comment -
Lol lol at little kvb trying to sound important with his graphs and videos...hey kev how come it took you 2 months to go pro after yours expired???
Hmmmmm maybe because s druggie pile of shit like yourself couldn't afford the 100 bucks and had to beg some posters for points.
Unreal....big bad pro gambler kvb couldn't get 100 bucks to go pro
Better log off the internet and go spend some time with the family cuz this internet stuff ain't good for you bitchComment -
lol Range.
Just trying add a dimension or two to it all.
No sleep lost here, just some standard reports for the week, thought I'd put a chart down. Maybe we'll add a few layers to it all as the week progresses.
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Both nights, the scheduled games at least. Passed on the makeup game.
278 4-Oct PHI/SF UNDER 45.5 (-104) 0.96 280 5-Oct ATL/GB UNDER 56.5 (-110)
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i was actually asking Range but that's cool nice jobComment -
Other than Week 2, overs have won but haven't dominated; one outlier week is responsible for most of the winning.
9-7
11-4-1
9-7
8-7Comment -
good statsComment -
MIAMI-SF.
Total was pushed to 49.5
Could this be a KVB Contrarian Special?Comment -
Weather will come into play in a bit but why isn't this just the new normal?
Baseball totals are sky high every game now (and took awhile to adjust) same with NBA although books got on to them a bit quicker from memory. Hockey more goals it seems now also but I don't follow it enough to judge.
High NFL scores might be hear to stay backing the under to hope they don't doesn't seem the right move.Comment
