So let me get a little more specific, without doing a video.
Think of the games above, and compare them to a couple of other games.
BUF/LV…53 points…opens at 49.5 and moves up to 53.
Going into this week Buffalo had averaged 14.2 points over the Total and all 3 games were OVERs. There’s more to it though.
In week 1 it was 5 points over the Total, week 2 it bumped to an average of 11, then by week 3 up to 14.2 average points OVER the Total line. It’s a rising slope.
Then for Las Vegas, it was a falling slope, but not much with the average of 16, then 13.5 then 12, again with all 3 games OVERs.
These averages are in small company and on the UPPER end of the league here. It’s no wonder the line jumped. The push has helped push both teams toward their baseline.
PHI/SF…45 points…opens at 43 moves up to 46.
Philly enters the week with a season average of just 4 over the Total, in the middle of the pack of the NFL, as they went OVER the first two games and Under the third. SF entered the week, with that D of theirs, at just -.3, doing the opposite going UNDER in the first game then slightly over the next two.
If we put every week on this chart and do this year after year, it can get interesting. These lines will tighten down into a range and it will display some of that market fluidity I think this thread was looking for. The STD and average in the chart include every team in the NFL, to get an idea of where these teams stand....
We can play with the time frame and averages to see a more recent effect of the league as the season to date can be more helpful early season. There are some alerts to look for, like a crossing of 0 and by season’s end most teams are in a narrow range around that 0 line as the lines tighten.