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Week 2 college football best bets: Texas should roll 🏈
Week 2 college football best bets: Texas should roll
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Every Thursday during the season, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly, Preston Johnson, Seth Walder and David M. Hale will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.
Here are their best bets for the first full week of the college football season
Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill as of Wednesday afternoon.
Thursday's game
UAB Blazers at Miami Hurricanes (-14, 54.5)
Connelly: Last season, Miami ranked 81st in offensive SP+ and ninth on defense and UAB ranked 118th and 28th, respectively. The projected point total had they played last season would have been 40.0.
Yes, Miami has likely upgraded at both offensive coordinator (hiring Rhett Lashlee) and quarterback (bringing in Houston's D'Eriq King), and yes, UAB returns starting quarterback Tyler Johnston III and scored 45 points on Central Arkansas last week. But SP+ takes some of that into account and still projects only 41.0 total points, primarily because both defenses should still be good. (Yes, UAB allowed 35 to Central Arkansas last week, but it was fluky; the Bears averaged only 4.4 yards per play and scored touchdowns on drives of 4, 15 and 35 yards.) I'm all for a more prolific and entertaining game, but expecting 55 points or more here seems like a lot.
Pick: Under 54.5
Saturday's games
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Louisville Cardinals (-11.5, 57.5)
Walder: In the offseason we made a few tweaks to the way the Football Power Index (FPI) calculates its preseason priors, and Louisville is the prime example for that change. When considering previous seasons' offensive performance, our new method understands the difference between when Micale Cunningham was at quarterback and when he was not. In this case that's pretty important, because the offense was at its best with Cunningham, who finished eighth in Total QBR.
The model knowing that, and assuming Cunningham will start, has it more bullish on the Louisville offense. As in, the second-best offense in the country among the FBS teams left playing bullish.
Pick: Louisville -11.5
Johnson: I will second Seth and FPI and sing praises for the Louisville offense with Cunningham under center. In fact, I know some bettors who took flyers on Cunningham to win the Heisman Trophy at 100-1. I don't hate it, but I will when he wins and I passed and missed the boat. The truth is, Cunningham missed two games to injury last season and split reps in two more. Had he thrown six more pass attempts and qualified, his passer rating would have been second in the country to only Joe Burrow. He led all returning 2020 quarterbacks with 11.4 yards per pass attempt last season. Watch out for this Cardinals offense in Year 2 under Scott Satterfield.
On the other side of the field, we get a Western Kentucky team with Maryland transfer Tyrrell Pigrome taking over the quarterbacking duties. I will never forget the Terps' opener against Texas in 2017 when Pigrome threw for 175 yards and rushed for 64 more before suffering an injury that would cost him his season. He still scored three touchdowns in the game, and Maryland ultimately pulled off the 51-41 upset. He had trouble solidifying his spot once he returned from injury in 2018, but a WKU offense that ranked top-30 in pass rate adding a dual threat in Pigrome is a match made in heaven. A Louisville defense that needs to improve after finishing the 2019 season ranked 112th in opponent yards per play and 81st in adjusted success rate is a good start for Pigrome and the Hilltoppers.
The total started moving up this week, and I think it could even reach 60s by kickoff. I still like it at 58 or better.
Pick: Over 57.5
UTEP Miners at No. 14 Texas Longhorns (-43, 58)
Walder: UTEP's 10-point win over Stephen F. Austin slightly lowered FPI's opinion of the Miners, who are now FPI's lowest-ranked team among schools that are playing this season. With quarterback Sam Ehlinger back and an experienced defense, our model is high on Texas. So high, in fact, that it predicts a win by over 53 points, more than 10 points beyond the spread. Disagreements that large with the line -- barring a QB injury -- are rare for FPI.
Pick: Texas -43
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats (-7.5, 57)
Connelly: Last we saw Texas State, Jake Spavital's Bobcats were giving SMU far more trouble than expected in a 31-24 loss. With new quarterback Brady McBride, it's possible Texas State is a far tougher out this season, and it's possible it has taken a couple of steps beyond UTSA at the moment.
On the other hand, the Bobcats were outgained by 128 yards by SMU, and despite some Manzielian flashes, McBride posted only a 114.5 passer rating. The run game was excellent, and that might be enough to carry the day against a pretty poorly projected UTSA, but the Bobcats have beaten exactly one FBS opponent by more than seven points in their past 26 tries. I'm not ready to commit to them being good just yet, and neither is SP+ (projection: Texas State 30.2, UTSA 29.5).
Pick: UTSA +7.5
Johnson: A theme to this unique season will be recognizing when teams are in COVID-19-related predicaments. It will likely be the case more often early in the season as certain schools haven't been able to practice nearly as often as others. UTSA falls under the umbrella this week.
Coach Jeff Traylor said Tuesday that 13 players missed practice because of positive antibody coronavirus test results. He referred to the entire season being one big contingency plan and that the Roadrunners now have to wait on a cardiologist to clear these players -- after they took an EKG test -- before they are allowed to play Saturday. Traylor also said there are other test results they are still waiting on.
As far as I could find, we don't know who these 13 players are or how significant a role they play for the Roadrunners. It can't be positive, regardless, as these guys are missing practices the week of a game against a Texas State squad that already has a game against SMU under its belt. By the way, the Bobcats looked pretty good considering they closed over three-touchdown underdogs and lost to the Mustangs only 31-24.
With the full game spread moving off of the key number of -7 for Texas State already, I prefer to go the first-half route now at -4 against a UTSA team taking its first snaps.
Pick: Texas State first half -4
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Kansas State Wildcats (-10.5, 54)
Connelly: No idea how you could put together a point total for these two teams that's lower than UAB-Miami. Twelve of Arkansas State's 13 games last season topped 54 points (including a 55-0 shutout loss to Georgia!), and the Red Wolves' opening game of this season featured 61 points and 926 yards. Even with a plodding Kansas State offense replacing quite a few pieces, SP+ projects a 36-26 Wildcats victory -- a total a healthy touchdown above the Caesars line. That's enough of a cushion for me.
Pick: Over 54
Hale: The Red Wolves shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in a frustrating loss to Memphis in Week 1, so there is reason to think they might have worked out the kinks. Just as likely, though, is that the fresh Power 5 team with more time to prepare will have a big advantage.
Pick: Kansas State -10.5
UL Monroe Warhawks at Army Black Knights (-19.5, 54.5)
Johnson: This is another COVID-19-related angle that suits the Black Knights. ULM had to break camp for 11 days starting Aug. 21 after nine players tested positive earlier that week. Coach Matt Viator said the Warhawks will be playing several combinations of players at multiple positions because they just don't know where they are yet with the roster and depth chart. They look to be treating this game as a glorified scrimmage.
Army just blitzed a once-respectable Middle Tennessee team 42-0 in its season opener. The Black Knights looked as sharp as anybody I watched in Week 1. Now they're facing a ULM squad that doesn't know who is playing where yet, including at the quarterback position, and that just had to step away from practices for 11 days? Can I interest you in the BYU-Navy box score when the Midshipmen weren't prepared after taking safety precautions?
I expect Army to control this game from the get-go and have also played it in the first half against ULM's first snaps of the 2020 season.
Pick: Army first half -10
Hale: The Black Knights are getting a bunch of love after whipping Middle Tennessee in Week 1, so at first blush, this line might be a bit inflated. But then remember that Louisiana-Monroe finished 128th against the run last season, allowed 39 points per game and teams that finished with a winning record averaged 48 per game. Good luck slowing down Army's option here.
Pick: Army -19.5
Kezirian: I am easing into the season with only one official play (see below), but do have a lean for this matchup. Honestly, how can you not like the Army side? The Black Knicks blasted Middle Tennessee State in a game that reminded me of when we see only one school motivated for a bowl. As Preston indicated above, having a full game under your belt could prove to be a significant factor. Army will not let up on offense and I anticipate gash plays on the ground in the second half to cover this.
Pick: Lean Army -19.5
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Florida State Seminoles (-12.5, 52.5)
Kezirian: Only one play for me this weekend, but I am oddly excited about it. I think FSU will improve under new coach Mike Norvell and it may even look that way in the opener. Quarterback James Blackman has upside and brings in decent experience but the offensive line issues will not be resolved overnight. Georgia Tech's defensive front is nothing special but it should be able to capitalize and disrupt the Seminoles' offense just enough. Tech is still transitioning from the triple-option in that coach Geoff Collins has several players recruited for an old system. I am not convinced that Tech can do much offensively in this one.
Pick: Under 52.5
Hale: Geoff Collins doesn't put out a depth chart. Instead, the Yellow Jackets list the players "above the line" -- essentially the guys Collins thinks are ready to play. That list is a bit thin at some positions (four linebackers, five edge rushers), particularly given the expected heat and humidity in Tallahassee on Saturday. Add in that O-line was perhaps Georgia Tech's biggest weakness, and FSU's defensive front, led by Marvin Wilson, is one of the best in the nation.
Pick: Florida State -12.5
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