1. #1
    All Of My Kindness Is Taken For Weakness
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    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill 👊

    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill


    When the main event this week was scrapped due to another positive COVID-19 test, two ranked strawweights stepped up to fill the void. Both are coming off split decision losses to higher-ranked opponents in the top 10. The winner will hold a spot in the top 10, and the loser probably will bounce to the bottom of the list.

    So, a lot is at stake for them. The market odds are super tight and in slight disagreement with the rankings.

    Prelims begin at 5 p.m. ET Saturday on ESPN+, and the main card starts at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

    Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill.

    Strawweight main event: No. 13 Angela Hill (-130) vs No. 8 Michelle Waterson (+110)

    Tale Of The Tape

    Last fight weight class Strawweight Strawweight
    Age 34 35
    Height 63 63
    Reach 62 64.5
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 110 179
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 0:1 2:0
    Distance knockdown rate 0.0% 0.5%
    Head jab accuracy 24% 35%
    Head power accuracy 32% 38%
    Total standup strike ratio 0.8 0.7
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 73% 76%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 100%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.41 0.11
    Takedown accuracy 47% 38%
    Advances per takedown/top control 1.3 0.6
    Opponent takedown attempts 15 50
    Takedown defense 53% 72%
    Share of total ground time in control 55% 31%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.43 0.10
    On paper, we primarily have two strikers, but they use varying styles. Waterson is famous for her reserved karate base, and Hill uses a busier and more vertical Muay Thai stance. But in terms of performance, their striking stats have landed in the same place. They have strong accuracy, average defense, low power and low pace relative to opponents.

    Should this stay standing, there will be a feeling-out process, with close rounds that might not threaten much for a finish. But Waterson, perhaps surprisingly, has twice the takedown attempts in much less Octagon time compared to Hill. But Hill's takedown defense is strong, and she does have an active guard game. The big difference on the mat is Waterson's back control, which could steal rounds as well as set up a submission.

    This fight is too close to see much of an edge. Hill was always an off-or-on fighter who suddenly put together a streak before facing an elite opponent and falling short. The numbers give her a slight edge but not enough to pay any juice against another elite opponent.

    E+ recommends: Pass at current odds. It's a five-rounder; take over 2.5 rounds for parlays.

    Best bets elsewhere on the card

    When odds were released for Matt Schnell (-105) versus Tyson Nam (-115), Schnell was the mild favorite. Steady action has flipped the lines, and it shows no signs of stopping. Nam definitely turned heads with a 32-second KO in has previous outing, atop a long career of striking finishes. But Schnell is well-rounded with a variety of submissions in his arsenal, as long as he survives Nam's early onslaught of strikes.

    E+ recommends: Money-line play on Schnell at even or plus money.

    If you're wondering which fighter competing on the card spends the highest share of Octagon time controlling opponents on the ground, it would be Alan Patrick (+200). The underdog spends 49% of his fight time on the mat and the vast majority of that time in control. While Bobby Green (-240) has a frustrating jab-heavy style of stand-up striking, he's not known as a finishing threat, either on the feet or off his back. If Patrick leverages the small cage early and often to stifle Green's long-range strikes, Patrick could secure a big upset via ground control.

    E+ recommends: Money-line lean on Patrick at anywhere near +200.

  2. #2
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    jjgold's Avatar Horses Moderator
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    Too much UFC stuff lately they are over killing the sport

    Its now big time football season

    See you next year UFC

  3. #3
    Art Vandelay
    Corona on St. Pats... WTF!
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Too much UFC stuff lately they are over killing the sport

    Its now big time football season

    See you next year UFC
    C'mon JJ, the "Karate Hottie"! That's my favorite Buffer intro!