Army favored, Navy an underdog: Week 1 trends to know 🏈
Army favored, Navy an underdog: Week 1 trends to know
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College football is back, albeit with far fewer games than a "normal" Week 1 slate. Here are some betting trends and stats to know prior to kickoff, courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information.
All odds are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill and are subject to change. Please check here for the latest updates.
The Blue Raiders are 1-8 SU (2-7 ATS) versus FBS opponents in season openers under head coach Rick Stockstill.
Over is 9-1 in Middle Tennessee's last nine games versus nonconference opponents dating to 2018.
Army is 4-11 ATS in season openers in the past 15 seasons, but three of those covers came since 2014 under head coach Jeff Monken.
Stats to know: Both teams rank near the bottom in percent of returning production on defense. Middle Tennessee's defense returns players who accounted for 51% (111th) of its tackles in 2019 while Army gets back 49% (114th).
Given the total has hung around 70, the over is 16-9 in the last 25 season openers with a total of 70 or higher, including 9-3 in games involving only FBS teams. SMU is the only team to play in more than two such games against FBS opponents (O-U is 2-2).
SMU is 1-6 ATS as a road favorite in the past three seasons.
Texas State is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games as an underdog.
Stats to know: These two teams were polar opposites when it came to pace last season. SMU's 79.8 plays per game trailed only Wake Forest for most in FBS, while Texas State's 64 plays per game tied for 114th out of 130 teams. Including a 47-17 loss at SMU, Texas State played seven teams that averaged over 70 plays per game in 2019. The Bobcats were 1-5-1 ATS in those games.
Prior to his arrival at Memphis, second-year offensive coordinator Kevin Johns has been either OC or co-OC at Texas Tech (2018), Western Michigan (2017) and Indiana (2011-16). Games involving those Johns-led offenses combined to go over the total 72 of 111 times (65%).
In the past 15 seasons, Memphis is 29-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite.
Arkansas State is 3-11 ATS the past three seasons versus nonconference teams and 4-10 ATS as an underdog against nonconference foes since head coach Blake Anderson took over in 2014.
Stats to know: In 2015, the Red Wolves (+11.5) beat Appalachian State 40-27 in the only prior instance they have been double-digit underdogs versus a non-Power 5 opponent under Anderson.
Since 2000, the under is 16-3 in BYU season openers, including 4-0 under head coach Kalani Sitake. The Cougars are also 14-5 ATS in those games, although just 2-2 ATS (3-1 SU) under Sitake.
BYU is 2-8 ATS in its past 10 games, including five straight ATS losses. The last time the Cougars suffered six straight ATS losses was a 0-9 stretch from 2016 to 2017 that included a 1-7 SU start to 2017, the program's worst eight-game start in the FBS era.
The Midshipmen are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) since a 42-0 loss at Cincinnati in 2018.
Navy is 53-13 at home under head coach Ken Niumatalolo, including 11-1 in home openers.
Stats to know: BYU finished 7-6 last season despite traveling the second-most miles (15,249) and leading the country with 49 different players starting a game, per Phil Steele. The Cougars also struggled in the red zone with 60 trips (T-16th-most in FBS) but a red zone TD percentage that ranked 108th (52%).
Ricky's 1* free play on BYU.
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The Cougars are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on field turf.
- The Midshipmen are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five versus Independent teams.
- The Midshipmen will have to replace a starting QB that was also their leading rusher.
Verdict: The Midshipmen appear to be overmatched in Week 1. More Winning Picks from Ricky Tran
I love how this guy hammers the fact thq qb who has moved on from navy was also the leading rusher...lol
One steps down another takes the place its called team work.(dont hear that being talked about) Makes me want to bet even more against the theory, if the value burns me 2 or 3 times then i accept.
Major value in navy they are ranked better and should win by touchdown but are getting +3 atleast thats what i got line for. Byu is 65th untill proven otherwise i say they lose.
Who know mabye navy doesnt even show up
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Army favored, Navy an underdog: Week 1 trends to know 🏈
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