SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Betting guide for the 146th Kentucky Derby 🏇
Betting guide for the 146th Kentucky Derby
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL
Postponed because of the coronavirus pandemic from its traditional running on the first Saturday in May for the first time since 1945, the Kentucky Derby will take place on the first Saturday of September. Tiz the Law is the morning-line favorite (3-5) and is unbeaten in four starts this year. That includes the Belmont Stakes in June, which led off this year's reshuffled Triple Crown.
So will Tiz the Law head into the Preakness Stakes (Oct. 3) with a chance at all three?
Time will tell, but first here is a breakdown of every horse in the Kentucky Derby field, suggested plays and picks.
Note: Horses, with odds, listed in order of post position (jockey/trainer in parentheses).
Chris Fallica's guide to the field
1. Finnick the Fierce (Martin Garcia/Rey Hernandez) 50-1
Ran a big race at Churchill Downs on a sloppy track at 88-1 in the Jockey Club last year, but has been soundly beaten by some of the long shots in this race and really doesn't belong here. The only interesting thing about him will be to see what type of trip he can work out from the rail, given the new-look starting gate. Since Ferdinand won in 1986, only two horses that started from the rail even managed a top-3 finish. Finnick the Fierce won't be the third.
2. Max Player (Ricardo Santana Jr./Steve Asmussen) 30-1
Asmussen is 0-20 in the Derby. That's the most Derby starts for a trainer without at least one win -- and this likely won't be his first winner. It's actually the first start Max Player will make in the Asmussen barn since being transferred from Linda Rice. He has been crushed twice by Tiz the Law, and I don't see those tables being turned Saturday. However, I will use this one underneath in trifectas and superfectas, as he's a late runner and could be passing the really bad tiring ones late.
3. Enforceable (Adam Beschizza/Mark Cassee) 30-1
Casse won the Preakness and Belmont last year, but he probably won't add the Derby to those Triple Crown wins here. He is a threat to crack the lower rungs of the exotics, as he's had excuses in his last couple of races with wide trips at Keeneland and Fair Grounds. He couldn't beat Tiz the Law when he ran his worst race, and now Tiz the Law has gotten better while Enforceable has cracked 90 on the Beyer scale once. He's got no speed and will plod away to finish in front of as many as he can.
4. Storm the Court (Julien Leparoux/Peter Eurton) 50-1
Talk about a complete fluke horse. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at 46-1 on a weird Santa Anita surface and hasn't done a thing since, finishing behind long shots Finnick the Fierce and South Bend, as well as King Guillermo. Leparoux has the most mounts by any jockey in Derby history without a top-3 finish (11), and he won't be getting one here. He's got the points to run, so why not? But he's got no chance.
5. Major Fed (James Graham/Greg Foley) 50-1
I actually used this horse at Fair Grounds in both the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby, and he ran OK given some bad trips. But that's the story of his running lines; he always seems to find trouble, whether he's six-wide or breaks slow. He's another one with no speed at all, his Beyers are really light and his try in the Matt Winn at CD was awful. Maybe he can finish fourth if it all goes his way, but that's about it.
6. King Guillermo (Samy Camacho/Juan Avila) 20-1
The first words out of everyone's mouth when it comes to King Guillermo is that he was 49-1 when he won the Tampa Bay Derby. And, yes, that's true. But he crushed Solo Volante that day. I always like to go back after a race and see what I may have missed ... and it turns out I missed a lot. He was 6-5 in his debut at GP, so he was clearly well meant and thought to have a future. Then the connections put him on the turf in start number two and he absolutely aired, winning by six lengths at 9-2. His first start against winners came in a stakes race where he was again favored at 3-2. And he ran quite well, finishing third.
He was given time off, and the second start against winners is a spot I usually like to play horses -- and that's what the TB Derby was, his second start vs. winners. For some reason I didn't, and he got away on the board and just crushed the field. People said prior to Arkansas that he was a fluke (and I guess I couldn't fault anyone who thought that), and they wanted to see him back it up. And he did. He ran a winning race in Arkansas, but Nadal just ran a better race.
Yeah, he's been off since then and that's auto toss in a lot of people's eyes, but he had 97 days off prior to the monster effort in Tampa, so I'm not worried about the layoff. He's had a great workouts over the track, should be able to get the distance, and who knows how the pace is going to play out? We've seen speed do quite well in the Derby lately and he should be close to the pace, but doesn't have to have the lead. I think it would be a huge mistake to throw him out, and if Tiz the Law gets beat, King Guillermo is at the top of the list of those who can do it. If you're looking for crossover appeal to mainstream sports, he's owned by former MLB All-Star Victor Martinez.
7. Money Moves (Javier Castellano/Todd Pletcher) 30-1
I've seen a lot worse-looking 30-1 shots on paper than Money Moves. He won at first asking in February, then won his first race vs. winners for fun. His first race off the four-month layoff was very useful, and this is not the best Derby field ever assembled. He should be stalking the pace but not too far back, and despite never running in a Graded Stakes race, I'll be using him underneath. It's Pletcher and Castellano, so he probably won't remain 30-1, but he's still worth using despite Pletcher having just eight runners finish in the money at the Derby and Castellano having just two in-the-money finishes from 13 mounts, with seven of those 10th or worse.
8. South Bend (Tyler Gaffalione/Bill Mott) 50-1
An interesting jockey/trainer marriage in the Derby considering last year Gaffalione was the jockey on War of Will, who was nearly knocked to his knees by Maximum Security, resulting in Maximum Security's DQ. The beneficiary of that? Country House, trained by Mott. I guess if you're looking for any sliver of hope, at least he's got a win over the track, but don't expect this one to be the second straight Mott long shot winner. I actually think this could be the candidate to earn the title of hopeless runner to be way overbet. People will hear or remember that Mott trained a long shot winner last year, and I'm guessing every Notre Dame fan in the world will have a hunch bet on him. That's fine. I love when horses with no chance take money.
9. Mr. Big News (Gabriel Saez/Bret Calhoun) 50-1
I feel like a broken record, but he's another runner without any speed and has never really been respected on the toteboard. He's never been shorter than 6-1 and has been at least 34-1 in five of his seven starts. He won at boxcars at Oaklawn but was no match for a horse like Art Collector. He'll be part of the plodding charge from the back of the pack.
10. Thousand Words (Florent Geroux/Bob Baffert) 15-1
From the duo that brought you lead blocker Restoring Hope for Justify in the 2018 Belmont Stakes. Thousand Words was initially thought to be one of Baffert's big guns for the Derby, but he never really improved as he turned 3. Then he wired the field in the Shared Belief at a big number after Honor A.P. was taken out at the start. Geroux is known as a rider who likes to put his horses into the race, so if you think he can back that 104 Beyer up and that there won't be a ton of company on the front end, this is about as good a price as you'll ever see for a Baffert Derby runner. I just don't think he can hold of Tiz the Law or Honor A.P. with a clear run when the real running begins.
11. Necker Island (Miguel Mena/Chris Hartman) 50-1
I don't know why he's running. Well, I guess I do: The owners want to say they had a horse in the Derby. But as an owner, you can't even enjoy the normal pageantry of the Derby this year. He's got no shot.
12. Sole Volante (Luca Panici/Patrick Biancone) 30-1
If the Derby was run in February at Gulfstream, he would have had a huge shot. He was the beaten favorite in the Tampa Derby when King Guillermo freaked, but he was all out to beat a cheap claimer in June at Gulfstream and then was dreadful in the Belmont. I kind of think he has peaked, but I'll use him defensively on my tickets in third and fourth in the trifecta and superfecta just because he has shown he can finish, and he did win that G3 at Tampa.
13. Attachment Rate (Joe Talamo/Dale Romans) 50-1
I'm going out on a limb that he will be nowhere near 50-1 Saturday, as I've seen a few people make a case for him at a lesser price. And I can see it. He ran a really good second to Art Collector at Ellis Park and wasn't embarrassed by Maxfield at CD from a bad post in May. The distance will not be an issue. I don't know if he can win, but he looks a lot better than the other 50-1 shots in here. It's notable that each of the last three Derby winners were winless at age 2 -- just like Attachment Rate was. Romans has had just two of his 10 Derby runners hit the board, and both were late runners at double-digit odds. It's Talamo's third Derby mount. But Attachment Race is on the ticket underneath for sure.
14. Winning Impression (Joe Rocco/Dallas Stewart) 50-1
See my thoughts above on Necker Island and insert here. I guess about the only positive thing one can say is Stewart has had four horses hit the board in Triple Crown races and they were all at least 28-1. But this one is a big stretch.
15. Ny Traffic (Paco Lopez/Saffie Joseph) 20-1
He's the other New York-bred horse in the race, and don't forget about him. He ran his heart out in the Haskell, just getting beat by Authentic. If the race was a yard longer, he would have won. He ran a huge race at CD when beaten by just a length by the very talented Maxfield. He will be in the race early with an aggressive jockey in Lopez. He might be a cut below Tiz the Law and Honor A.P. and a couple others, but I think he'll be forgotten about some on the toteboard. He can absolutely hit the board, and I can see a scenario where he gets brave and hangs on for even more than a piece. He should definitely be on your ticket.
16. Honor A.P. (Mike Smith/John Shirreffs) 5-1
Entering 2020, this was the Derby prospect I was most excited about. He badly needed the San Felipe Derby off the six-month layoff and then crushed Authentic on the square in the Santa Anita Derby. He ran great in the Shared Belief after being knocked sideways at the start. He probably wins with a clean break. There are zero concerns about distance. My only concern is will he have too much to do late in what might not be a super-hot pace. Smith and Shirreffs teamed up to win the 2005 Derby with Giacomo. He's one of the ones on the short list who can win.
17. Tiz the Law (Manny Franco/Barclay Tagg) 3-5
Oh no, he drew Post 17, which has never produced a winner, and his only loss and by far worst career race came at CD in the slop, and his jockey has only ridden two hopeless long shots in the Derby, and no horse less than 2-1 has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979 and ... well I hope you got the dose of sarcasm there. Tiz the Law's six wins have been dominant -- all by at least three lengths. He should have a great stalking trip. If the only thing you can knock is a historical note on PP17 and the fact the horse ran a bad race in the slop at CD, well you're reaching some. If Tiz the Law loses, it will likely be to a horse like Ny Traffic or King Guillermo that has the lead in the stretch. I don't think someone will be coming from the clouds to pass him. He's a very formidable favorite and the most likely winner. Also keep in mind if playing exactas, only twice in the past 41 years has the race run favorite over second choice, so look beyond Honor A.P. for second.
18. Authentic (John Velazquez/Bob Baffert) 8-1
One of two that will try to give Baffert a record sixth Kentucky Derby win. Authentic has speed and will do his best to clear from post position 18, which might result in him running a lot further than others. He was dead game on a speed-favoring track at Monmouth at 1⅛, but any further and Ny Traffic was going by. And I can't get the image of Honor A.P. toying with him in the Santa Anita Derby out of my head. He's the third choice on the morning line, a position that often gets some trendy play. Keep in mind the third choice in the Derby wagering hasn't won the race since Strike The Gold in 1991. He'll get bet because its Baffert and Velazquez, but I don't think he'll be around late, and it would mark the fourth time in five years Baffert has failed to have a horse hit the board in the Derby.
Fallica's suggested plays
Here are some suggested plays. I'll use a $1 base for the exotic wagers and you can hit the repeat wager button as your budget allows. Good luck!
Kentucky Derby Best Bets
$2 Win-Place-Show 6-13-15-16 $24 $1 Exacta Box 6-13-15-16-17 $20 $1 Exacta 17/6-7-13-15-16 $5 $1 Exacta 6-7-13-15-16/17 $5 $1 Trifecta 17/6-13-15-16/all $64 $1 Trifecta 17/6-13-15-16/1-2-3-6-7-12-13-15-16-18 $36 $1 Trifecta 17/1-2-3-6-7-12-13-15-16-18/6-13-15-16 $36 $1 Trifecta 6-13-15-16/17/all $64 $1 Trifecta 6-13-15-16/1-2-3-6-7-12-13-15-16-18/17 $36
Anita Marks' pick
Tiz the Law (3-5)
Tiz the Law has been the gold standard this year in his quest for the Triple Crown. He towers over the Kentucky Derby field and has beaten several of the horses he'll race Saturday.
Not only is he undefeated in four races in 2020 -- including the Travers Stakes and Belmont Stakes -- he's won those four races by an astounding 18½ combined lengths. He made it look easy in the Travers. Jockey Manny Franco was sitting on him for most of the race, but when they turned for home, Franco asked him to run and he showed a devastating turf of foot, instantly opening up five lengths on the field.
Typically, one of the big questions for the Derby is can a given horse get the 1¼-mile distance, but Tiz the Law just won the Travers at 1¼.
The only thing he will have to overcome is the history of post position 17, which has never been a winning post in the Kentucky Derby. He has a speed horse drawn outside of him and to his inside, as well. He'll have to avoid getting caught out wide into the first turn and, in the process, losing ground.
Honor A.P. won the Santa Anita Derby with ease and is a logical second choice to Tiz the Law. Attachment Rate is a huge long shot, but he finished second in his last race to Art Collector, who would've been Tiz the Law's main competition if he had not withdrawn.
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by Chi_archie
