PGA Tour FedEx Cup playoffs: Best bets for BMW Championship ⛳
PGA Tour FedEx Cup playoffs: Best bets for BMW Championship
Dustin Johnson ran away with the first event of the PGA Tour's FedEx Cup playoffs, cruising to an 11-shot victory at The Northern Trust on Sunday after finishing an astonishing 30 under for the week.
There are now 70 players remaining in the hunt for the title as the tour shifts to Olympia Fields, Illinois, for this week's BMW Championship
Where does the smart money lie? What bets and props are worth a look?
Betting experts Chris "The Bear" Fallica and Doug Kezirian, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Bets to win
Marks: Rahm tied for sixth at The Northern Trust and looked great on Sunday. Olympia Fields fits his game extremely well. This season, he ranks 44th in driving accuracy, 18th in strokes gained on approach and 23rd in strokes gained putting.
Fallica: Olympia Fields hasn't been used for a PGA Tour event since 2003, but DeChambeau did win the 2015 U.S. Amateur there, so at least he can claim some positive course history there. Yes, he has missed the cut in two of the past four events, but wedged in there was a T-4 at the PGA. There are only two par 5s, but the longer par 4s are where DeChambeau has an edge this week. Maybe the weekend off will have him fresher this week, and remember, he's still No. 1 in strokes gained off the tee and total shots gained.
Bearman: I have been on the Berger train almost every week since the break, and I am not stopping now. Pre-pandemic, he finished with three consecutive top-10s, and since the break he has a win, a runner-up, two thirds and a T-13 with one missed cut. He has played 22 rounds after the break, with 18 of them in the 60s and a scoring average (69.1) that ranks third on the tour. Olympia Fields is a course not many have played, so deciding what metrics to look at isn't an exact science here. That being said, Berger is near the top of every single metric, no matter what you use: total strokes gained (third), tee to green (11th), putting (12th), off the tee (21st), approach to green (23rd) and total driving (13th). At 20-1, Berger's odds rank him tied for seventh in the field this week, but his results and metrics are as good, if not better, than everyone in the field not named Dustin Johnson.
Tony Finau 40-1; top 10 (+300 at DK), tops 20 (+125 at DK)
Fallica: Now 29th in the FedEx Cup standings, he needs a good week to make it to East Lake. He dispelled a lot of narratives with his Sunday 66 at Harding Park in San Francisco. He simply got beat by Collin Morikawa. The 70-player field could help Finau, whose only win on the tour came in an alternate field event. While this event has been held on a different course, Finau has finished T-7, T-8 and fourth the past three years -- so maybe there's something with the timing of the event that sits well with Finau, who is among the top 10 on tour in shots gained tee to green.
Kezirian: For a par 70, this is a long course. I am isolating on a big hitter, such as a guy like Wolff who ranks ninth this season in driving distance. He also ranks 13th in shots gained off the tee. His putting has been shaky, but he has shown an ability to put it together for a tourney run. He finished T-4 at the PGA Championship and also posted a runner-up finish at the Rocket Mortgage and two other top-25 performances. I'll gladly grab the 45-1 price.
Bearman: I wanted to find someone with good odds who needs to fight to get into the top 30 and a spot in next week's Tour Championship. Noren fits that mold. He is up to No. 47 after last week's T-8 finish in Boston. Noren will need another good finish this week to advance to Atlanta, and his current form shows he can do that. Prior to last week's T-8, Noren finished T-22 at the PGA Championship (only that low due to a third-round 73), T-9 in Reno and T-3 in Minnesota. Noren is tied for eighth in shots gained around the green, 33rd in putting and 34th in total strokes gained. I'll be tossing money at the 70-1 and at 5-1 to finish in a much-needed top-10. Prop bets
Dustin Johnson top 10 (+100 at DK)
Fallica: In 12 rounds since the WD in Minnesota, he's had nothing worse than 69 in any round, is a combined 49 under and very easily could be entering the week off consecutive wins. Ride him while he's hot.
Marks: Henley had a T-8 at The Northern Trust and is coming into the BMW Championship on point. He ranks 31st in driving accuracy, third in strokes gained on approach and can scramble well. If his putter makes an appearance, Henley could even finish in the top 10.
Berger top 5 (+400 at DK), top 10 (+200 at DK)
Fallica: He has been out of the top 10 twice and out of the top 15 once in his past nine events. Talk about great form. And you can still get 2-1 on your money for a top-10 finish.
Collin Morikawa top 5 (+400 at DK)
Marks: Morikawa missed the cut last week, but I see it as a course that did not play to his game. After some extra rest, Morikawa comes in 28th in driving accuracy, 33rd in strokes gained on approach this season -- and he has a successful history on this course from his time in college.
Tiger Woods top 5 (+750 at DK), top 10 (+350 at DK)
Bearman: I know The Bear is going to crush me with this pick, and I expect a text as soon as he sees it. But hear me out. Much like what I wrote above about Noren, Tiger needs a good finish in Chicago to get to Atlanta, site of his memorable win in 2018. All three of his wins after the multiyear drought have been in shortened fields (30 at 2018's Tour Championship, 87 at the 2019 Masters, 78 at this year's Zozo Championship). He had a very up-and-down week in Boston but finished strong with a final-round 66 on Sunday. He was in a similar boat last year before finishing T-37 at BMW, but I am hoping for more of what he did last Sunday to carry over and hope for a top-10 or better.
Fallica: Given the two's current form, this appears to be a no-brainer. McIlroy even admitted this week he has kind of gone through the motions the past few weeks and is trying to find his game.
Fallica: Matsuyama has one top-20 finish since February, yet he always gets treated as if he's one of the big boys on tour. There's a good chance he'll again post a finish in the 20s, but his putting could be a huge issue this week. Scheffler has two fourth-place finishes in a row and three straight top-15s. You can also grab Scheffler at +120 to post a top-20 finish and +275 for a top-10.
Fallica: Fitzpatrick has missed the cut the past two weeks since consecutive top-6 finishes, but his performance over the past two months dwarfs Im, who has missed four cuts and has one top-30 finish in that span.
Fallica: Hovland's Sunday 66 got him into the top 20 in Boston, but his results have certainly tailed off lately. Maybe it's because we've been playing WGC events and majors, or maybe it's the end of his first full year on tour and his tank could be getting close to empty after playing basically every week since the restart.
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PGA Tour FedEx Cup playoffs: Best bets for BMW Championship ⛳
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