Best bets for the PGA Tour WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational ⛳
Best bets for the PGA Tour WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
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PGA Tour golf is back in full swing, albeit without the crowds we're accustomed to.
Michael Thompson birdied two of his final three holes Sunday to take home the title at the 3M Open.
The tour now heads to Memphis for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look at TPC Southwind?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Marks: JT's game has been on point since the tour resumed. He sits first in strokes gained tee to green and third in strokes gained on approach this season, two key metrics needed to win this week at TPC Southwind. Rain is in the forecast this weekend, and since 2014, Thomas gains two strokes per round in rainy conditions.
Bearman: I have not hidden my fondness for Simpson, picking him in numerous tournaments this season and getting a win at Harbour Town. Well, he finished second at this event in Memphis last year, going 13-under for the week, which included a final-round 64, but he was not able to catch the Brooks Koepka express. Looking at the course, he has a T-3 from 2014, so he has played well at Memphis regardless of the event. Simpson is 14th on tour in strokes gained tee to green, which the champion at this course was first in from 2015 to '18 (Koepka was sixth last year on the WGC setup). Simpson is seventh in total strokes gained. According to ESPN's Mackenzie Kraemer, everyone who has won a WGC stroke-play event the past five calendar years has been 40-1 or shorter, and Simpson fits that mold. He didn't recover from an opening-round 76 two weeks ago at Jack's place, but he has two wins and six top-10s on the season. I expect Simpson to finish the regular season strong (he's currently second in the FedEx Cup standings), with a high finish this week in Memphis.
Bearman: If there is one thing you can say about Schauffele, it's that his name is always around the first two pages of the leaderboard, especially in big events. He has four career wins, including three big ones: the 2017 Tour Championship, the '18 WGC-HSBC and the '19 Sentry Tournament of Champions. In 11 career starts in World Golf Championship events, he has seven finishes in the top 17, including a win and a runner-up. Not to mention, he has five top-6s in majors. Bottom line, the guy is a player in big events. His metrics line up as well; he is 10th in strokes gained tee to green, seventh in strokes gained off the tee and ninth overall. He has made all five cuts in golf's return, with four top-20s, and if not for a few "average" Sundays, he would have even better results. Expect Schauffele to be around Sunday, and I will fire on him to be in the top 10 as well at +225.
Schauffele 22-1
Kezirian: For whatever reason, Schauffele thrives in these types of events, winning four of the five no-cut tournaments he has entered. That includes winning a WGC stroke play event in 2018. Plus, the past five calendar years, every WGC winner besides Phil Mickelson entered with a top-20 ranking. Essentially, the elite players prevail, and Schauffele fits that criteria with a current ranking of 11th. I'll take the 22-1 odds.
Bearman: This event is a little tricky because you have event history and course history. The WGC-FedEx St. Jude was held here last year, and before that the FedEx St. Jude Classic was a staple, but it didn't always have strong fields. Berger did not play in the WGC event here last year, but he won back-to-back at TPC Southwind in 2016 and 2017. Obviously, the WGC is a tougher field, with the top eight players in the world here, and the course is set up harder than the regular events held here. That said, Berger has all the metrics to say it'll be another nice weekend in Memphis. He is 18th in the above mentioned strokes gained tee to green, sixth in both total strokes gained and scoring average and second on tour in scrambling around the greens. He let me down at the Memorial with a 73-75, but that was his first missed cut since October. His previous five events were all top-10s, something I could see him doing again, with another Memphis win putting him with other Kings of Memphis.
Fallica: Hovland is 12th in strokes gained tee to green and 139th in strokes gained putting. That illustrates the problem in backing Hovland, who had his string of top-25 finishes snapped at Memorial. He was No. 1 in strokes gained tee to green since the restart entering the event. He's going to win soon, and this is as good a price as you'll find on him, given the strength of the field. Can he stare down the big guns on Sunday and make some nervy putts to get that win? We'll see, but Hovland should again find himself on the leaderboard on Sunday.
Kezirian: I'll probably make fun of myself for backing a guy who finds ways to blow leads and fails to finish, but I have to grab 55-1. That translates to 1.8%, and I think Finau's chances are better than that -- even with all his warts. He's ranked 16th in the world and has consecutive top-10 finishes. He is also switching caddies again, so maybe that's the issue. Who really knows?
Bearman: In Berger, I chose a guy who has played this course well in the past. In Simpson, I chose a guy who played well on the course in a WGC setup last year. Well, 90-1 long shot Reavie has done both, finishing T-27th last year in the WGC event and posting three top-12 finishes in three appearances at TPC Southwind in 2015, 2017 and 2018. He made the cut in his past four events and in seven of the past eight. Get to the weekend, and who knows what a 90-1 shot could bring? As I noted above, this event is usually won by someone at 40-1 or shorter, but we can sprinkle some here.
Fallica: Rahm figured it out Sunday at Workday and carried it over the following week with a win in The Memorial, putting together rounds of 64-69-67-68 in the process, as weather got the best of most players on Sunday. He took a week off after his win and rise to the No. 1 player in the world. I expect that he will follow a top-10 performance here last year with another one this week.
Hovland +120 Top 20 at DK
Marks: Hovland is 6-for-6 in cuts since the pandemic break, but this will be his first round at TPC Southwind. His game sets up nicely, however. He ranks 12th in strokes gained tee to green this season, and considering that less than 60% of fairways were hit here last year, sitting in the top 45 in driving accuracy is huge for Hovland this week.
Reavie +190 Top 30 at DK
Marks: Reavie's driver is finally cooperating, and he ranks sixth in driving accuracy this season. He sports two top-25 finishes heading into Thursday, and a third could be on the way.
Rahm +200 Top 5 at DK
Marks: Rahm proved me wrong at The Memorial, and now I'm a believer that his game is back and better than ever. He is 17-under in his past five rounds and is top-10 this season in both strokes gained tee to green and driving distance.
Fallica: Cantlay made a mess of the back nine Sunday at Memorial and fell from a sure-fire top-20 finish to 32nd. It's the first time since September that he failed to finish in the top 20. The last time he posted consecutive starts without a top-20 was March 2019. He was 12th here a year ago, and that seems like a fair baseline this year.
Marks: We haven't seen a lot of Hatton this season, but he has impressed when he has teed it up. Hatton sits at the top of a number of metrics this season that fit nicely at TPC Southwind: second in strokes gained on approach, fifth in strokes gained tee to green. Hatton has shot in the 60s in seven of his eight rounds since the tour resumed.
Simpson +250 Top 10, +100 Top 20 at DK
Fallica: Simpson missed the cut at Memorial -- where he struggled in the past -- but don't expect that to be the norm. His four top-8 finishes in his past six starts are more the norm. His tee to green and putting numbers are among the best out there, and Simpson should make a run this week at TPC Southwind, where he was runner-up last year.
Berger +275 Top 10 at DK
Marks: Berger is having a great season, despite missing the cut at The Memorial (five top-10 finishes in his past six starts). He is a two-time winner at TPC Southwind and loves playing in the south.
Fallica: Winner of the WGC-Mexico, Reed and his short game should be respected this week. It will be hard to pull a WGC double, but Reed has a way of grinding away on these tracks, and he should at the very least finish in the top 20 at plus money, with a really good chance at a second straight top-10 at +350. Hovland even vs. Collin Morikawa (DK)
Fallica: I went into detail above regarding Hovland, and I think he's a bit more consistent than Morikawa. Sure, Morikawa's iron play is exceptional, but he has been a bit more erratic results-wise. Sure, he has the win at Workday and the runner-up at Charles Schwab, but since the break, he also has a missed cut, T-48 and T-64. There's always a chance that Morikawa could have another great week, but I'll side with the guy who has very few bad ones.
Marks: Matsuyama continues to have issues with his putter. Meanwhile, Ancer has four top-10 finishes this season and is ranked in the top 25 in strokes gained tee to green as well as on approach.
Fallica: Conners finished T-27 here last year and has been playing some really good golf this year, as evidenced by his strokes gained tee to green ranking of 19th and the fact that he's second on tour in greens in regulation. Finding greens will be paramount this week. Sergio has one top-30 finish this year, was 40th in this event last year and hasn't played well at Southwind since 2008. I'll take the small plus money on Conners here.
Fallica: Koepka won here last year and posted a pair of top-5 finishes at Southwind prior to it hosting the WGC, but it's hard to be confident in his game right now. He's 71st on tour in strokes gained tee to green,128th in strokes gained around the green and 137th in strokes gained on approach. The metrics aren't there, and neither are the results this year for Koepka, who has missed the cut in four of 10 events this season, including two of the past three weeks since his best finish of the year at the RBC Heritage (that's his only top-30 finish this year). Poulter posted a top-10 here last year, and though he doesn't hit a high percentage of greens, his scrambling ability will be an advantage here.
Fallica: McIlroy was fourth here in 2019, and the strokes gained numbers are really good for him this year, but it has been a tale of two seasons for Rory -- pre-break and post-restart. McIlroy had five straight top-5 finishes prior to the break. Since then, he has four starts, with his best finish a T-11 at the Travelers. Off another finish outside the top 30 and no longer carrying that No. 1 ranking, maybe Rory returns to pre-break form. But as mentioned earlier, Cantlay doesn't put together consecutive poor weeks, and it will take "elite Rory" to win this head-to-head.
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Best bets for the PGA Tour WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational ⛳
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