[stevenash]

Two early games on this slate today.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (game 1 of a back to back double header)
3:40 pm start

Chicago starts Dylan Cease
Cleveland starts Aaron Civale

Two young starters that are getting a lot of hype, the difference is Civale looks like he's legit while Dylan Cease could be legit but still hasn't proven it.
Cease made 14 starts last season, his across the board numbers were awful and the one thing that sticks out is he gives up a startling amount of home runs, especially to lefties.

Take a look at Civale's numbers last season.
Rock solid in everything.

Aaron Civale
YEAR	AGE	LG	TM	G	GS	SH	IP	H	ER	HR	K	BB	ERA	WHIP
2019	24	MAJ	CLE	10	10	0	57.7	44	15	4	46	16	2.34	1.04

I can see that Indian lineup teeing off on Cease.
Indians are -133, I don't like laying -140 or better (usually) but I might lay 4 to win 3 here
I'm leaning towards Indians here maybe 40 dollars to win 30, or 26 and change to win 20
If I bet them it would be small but Cleveland does look like the play here.

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians - Game 1
Tue 7/28		981 Chicago White Sox	+1½ -165+2½ -245-1½ +175-2½ +253+1 -122	+123	o9 -120o9½ +105o8½ -145o10 +125o8 -175	o4½ +115	u4½ -135
3:40PM		982 Cleveland Indians	-1½ +145-2½ +205+1½ -210+2½ -305-1 +102	-133	u9 +100u9½ -125u8½ +125u10 -145u8 +155	o4½ -130	u4½ +110

Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals.
6:05 pm start

Toronto starts Tanner Roarke
Washington starts Austin Voth

Blue Jays Roarke is a Nationals reject (oh the irony)
Another pitcher that was over hyped five years ago who pretty much turned out to be a pedestrian like run of the mill starter.
Roark started the year last season with the Reds, was so awful the Reds traded him to Oakland with cash (I said with cash, not receive cash in return lol) and then proceed to stink up Oakland as well,

All in all he made all 31 starts between the two teams had a ERA of 4.35 and a WH/IP ratio of 1.40 all above league norms for pitchers and gave up way to many HR's (Home runs allowed is a stat I pay more attention to these days when handicapping, you can't defense a HR for instance, but I digress)

Austin Voth is a name most aren't familiar with
Voth gets the start for Washington, he's 27 years old but he's still just a kid in the MLB
He's entering his third big league season and by the looks of what he did in his eight starts last year (I saw two of them) Voth looks like he could be a young gun stud.

Eight starts is not a big sample size but I can work with it.
Voth is a six inning starter (but aren't they all these days)
Had a 3.30 ERA and a hit/walk ratio of 1.05
Those are rock solid numbers.
Voth throws a pretty good four seamer and curve ball.
Here you go.
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.p.../2020&s_type=2

Lunch time I got to cut to chase now.
Nationls with Voth is the way I would go here over Roarke and the soft hitting Blue Jays.
-134 is affordable.
Right now it's a lean for me but I can see myself laying 4 to win 3

MLB Baseball			Run Line	Money Line	Total Runs	Team Total Runs
Toronto Blue Jays at Washington Nationals
Tue 7/28		951 Toronto Blue Jays	+1½ -150+2½ -215-1½ +185-2½ +280+1 -113	+124	o10 -105o9½ -120o10½ +110o9 -155o11 +145	o4½ -105	u4½ -115
6:05PM		952 Washington Nationals	-1½ +130-2½ +178+1½ -225+2½ -340-1 -107	-134	u10 -115u9½ +100u10½ -130u9 +135u11 -165	o5½ +115	u5½ -135

I'm not a chalk player, but the affordable chalk in the first two games looks like the plays.
Like I said I don't like laying juice but I can't make a case for the two dog teams.

I'll post my thoughts on some of the night games later, your pal Nasher needs a sandwich and coffee right now.

[lakerboy]

Nats should win but don't sleep on the Jays this season. They are an outcast with some good young talent

[stevenash]

Nats should win but don't sleep on the Jays this season. They are an outcast with some good young talent

I'm paying attention the AL East in particular.
Right, Jays don't have a home but they do have young talent and will surprise every now and then.
Orioles are utter trash.
Boston's pitching is in shambles.

Now the Rays are a funny team, their pitching staff (starters and relievers) are a top five staff in the majors, some say top three but the baseball analytic writers say the Rays offense is weak.

I think the pitching staff is good, yes, but not that great and are overrated, but I think the Rays bats are decent and not as weak as the others think.

Yankees can sleep walk to a division crown.

[Buckandadime]

GL Nasher
Gonna tail Clev small..

[jjgold]

Tremendous analysis like usual

[stevenash]

Tremendous analysis like usual

Thanks Coach.

The night games (or as I like to call them the 'main slate') is a ball buster.
Outside of Buehler (Dodgers) almost all the other starters are pretty much meat balling hamburgers.

Lindblom on the run line is a good bet.
Mil. -1.5 is the play, I'm going to write that up in the baseball forum.

[earthx1]

Thanks for the great analysis. I am looking at the early games and might play those.
Earthx1

[jjgold]

It’s always nice if you can get a W early

[stevenash]

Just for shits and giggles I played the Indians first five in the SBR sports book.
(Where dreams can come true don't 'ya know)?

I got the Indians for 50 at 5D (for the whole game)

Ticket#:4478906 Jul 28 03:30 PM

Jul 28 02:52 PM

MLB

STRAIGHT BET (FP) [1962] 1H CLE -124 ( ACTION / ACTION )

0.00 / 32.26

[Mr KLC]

Tailing you on the Brewers -1.5. Really wish that the Astros had signed Lindblom before former Astro, David Stearns, gobbled him up. He's going to prove to be a good acquisition for Milwaukee this year.

[stevenash]

^
Yeah I really like Lindblom in this spot tonight.
i’m using him at DraftKings tonight too.
He’s cheap because he’s a five and fly guy but he should reach value easily. (I think)

[mackave]

nats blow my left nut

[stevenash]

nats blow my left nut

I'm not a Nats fan and don't even pretend one.
I'm glad they beat Houston last year.

It's 2-1 early.

[Mr KLC]

Don't like how good Holland is looking early in the game.

[stevenash]

Don't like how good Holland is looking early in the game.

I hear 'ya, he looks sharp.

[Mr KLC]

Lindblom showed some character there striking out the side. Hopefully veteran Brewers will figure out Holland the 2nd time around.

[stevenash]

Lindblom showed some character there striking out the side. Hopefully veteran Brewers will figure out Holland the 2nd time around.

I thought the Brews would knock around Holland from the get.

KC and Whit winning again.
If we can play a little better than .500 against the top tier teams, who knows?

[navyblue81]

Rays are best team in baseball right now. They look scary thus far. The Braves are a good team and they are beating them to a pulp the last two nights.

[Mr KLC]

I thought the Brews would knock around Holland from the get.

KC and Whit winning again.
If we can play a little better than .500 against the top tier teams, who knows?

Kicking myself in the ass for not taking Whit in fantasy today. Someone on Twitter brought up earlier today that Whit scores fantasy points in 80% of the games he plays. I should have tailed. Hopefully my Cardinals and Padres stacks will work out for me.

[stevenash]

Yelich has looked like trash at the plate all week.

[stevenash]

Kicking myself in the ass for not taking Whit in fantasy today. Someone on Twitter brought up earlier today that Whit scores fantasy points in 80% of the games he plays. I should have tailed. Hopefully my Cardinals and Padres stacks will work out for me.

I got an Oakland stack working for me with Lindblom.
I got a Texas stack with Buehler.
Have a hunch Gallo, Odor, and Choo got their hitting shoes tonight.
Let's see.

[Mr KLC]

Rays are best team in baseball right now. They look scary thus far. The Braves are a good team and they are beating them to a pulp the last two nights.

Braves young pitching might not be all that people thought it might be. Hamels being out doesn't help the matter.

[Mr KLC]

I got an Oakland stack working for me with Lindblom.
I got a Texas stack with Buehler.
Have a hunch Gallo, Odor, and Choo got their hitting shoes tonight.
Let's see.

Was thinking about Texas myself because I think Kelly was HUGELY overpriced on FD.

[lakerboy]

Blue Jays continue to play well. These guys have an us against the world attitude

[stevenash]

Rays are best team in baseball right now. They look scary thus far. The Braves are a good team and they are beating them to a pulp the last two nights.

If Glasnow can keep striking out two an inning the Rays will go far.
Glasnow has always been on my radar but I thought he was overrated going in.
Looks like I may be wrong, and contrary to popular belief I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again.
I maintain the Rays hitting, I've been saying all along that line up is not as bad as people think.

Beeks is scary good coming out of that 'pen.

[Mr KLC]