1. 10-06-20 04:08 AM #1
    arie1985
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    Rafael Nadal vs Jannik Sinner --> Why you should bet Nadal -9.50 Games

    I've watched the full match of Sinner vs Zverev, the kid played amazing tennis, Sinner by all means is an amazing player, and Zverev was powerless against Sinner, but one thing so many of you might ignore and I don't:

    • In the first set Zverev had so many breaking points against Sinner, so so many, he missed all of them, Zverev was gifted with so many breaking points that if you had bet on Zverev you would tear off your hair asking how come he couldn't win these points.
    • Sinner - once finally broken in the 3rd set - had a "tendency" to lose the whole set even though Zverev really had some poor shots.
    • I'm also taking into consideration Nadal is a king in the eyes of Sinner, by the time he realizes where he is he would probably be 2 sets down.
    • Sinner also played just too many games until now, seriously, he played in the qualifiers, and then against top players, how much further can he stay afloat? It's a sinking ship!

    No, I do not expect a surprise to happen here, the chances of Sinner beating Nadal the way they are today are next to none ... Nadal is probably going to cruise easily here.

    I would expect at least one set with 6-0 or 6-1 for Nadal ... so with 2 other sets of 6-3 or 6-2 it would be at least 10-12 game difference if not more.

    If I had to bet on the exact outcome I'd say Nadal wins this in 3 straight sets:

    6-2, 6-3, 6-1

    I use Stake.com and they don't let me bet -9.50 so I'd take what they offer - even if it's lower odds, will throw something @ this

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  2. 10-06-20 04:50 AM #2
    pabonaparte
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    Why aren't you considering the fact that new opponents can pose a bigger threat to the big favourite compared to ATP top-20 guys who Nadal played (and beat) many times before?
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  3. 10-06-20 04:54 AM #3
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by pabonaparte View Post
    Why aren't you considering the fact that new opponents can pose a bigger threat to the big favourite compared to ATP top-20 guys who Nadal played (and beat) many times before?
    New opponents are definitely dangerous, and seeing how good Sinner plays I would not underestimate him against most players at the moment in this tournament, but Nadal is the top returner on clay ... what Zverev struggled with returns is going to be super easy for Nadal, and Nadal won't waste those break points ... even if Nadal would play like Zverev and simply pick those break points - he would still be in a 6-7 game difference, so considering all this - I can't see him winning for less than a 10 game difference.
    Last edited by arie1985; 10-06-20 at 04:58 AM.
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  4. 10-06-20 06:06 AM #4
    jjgold
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    Nadal is 34 years old

    No way laying that many games
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  5. 10-06-20 06:17 AM #5
    TheMetsSuck
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    He’s like 150-2 career at Roland garros. I laid -2.5 sets -225 parlayed with marlins +3.5 -300
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  6. 10-06-20 07:25 AM #6
    chargers4222
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    Jannik Sinner did not play in qualis.
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  7. 10-06-20 08:23 AM #7
    Bucketwah
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    On the other side here. Nadal very capable of winning by 10+ but dont see it today. Sinner has something to prove and no better stage to do it on
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  8. 10-06-20 09:36 AM #8
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by chargers4222 View Post
    Jannik Sinner did not play in qualis.
    You're right, but 2.5 weeks ago he played in the Italy Open, that's like qualis - this guy hasn't stopped playing for over a month now ... imagine running around a lake every 2 days - yes, now he needs to prove himself but he's a wrecking ship.

    I'm 100% confident with this bet.
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  9. 10-06-20 10:53 AM #9
    stepaside777
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    was coming to this forum just to see someone writting 'sinners ML'' but it seems logic has overtaken as you forgotten sport has no logic in it.
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  10. 10-06-20 12:35 PM #10
    jtoler
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    think itll be closer than you think although I havent seen nadal play 1 second of the tourney also using the last match as a staple just doesnt really work, different day, different opponent. we'll see though
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  11. 10-06-20 12:58 PM #11
    biggie12
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    -8.5 everywhere
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  12. 10-06-20 01:27 PM #12
    jjgold
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    It might get canceled until tomorrow
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  13. 10-06-20 01:51 PM #13
    Darkside Magick
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    Rafael Nadal -9.5 +145 vs Jannik Sinner
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  14. 10-06-20 01:59 PM #14
    nickfolker23
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    About to come out on court
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  15. 10-06-20 02:02 PM #15
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    It might get canceled until tomorrow
    yah who does the timing on these matches jfc

    going to be 11 pm paris time before they get on court
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  16. 10-06-20 02:25 PM #16
    Conqueror
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    yah who does the timing on these matches jfc

    going to be 11 pm paris time before they get on court
    Nadal is growing old. They don't want too many people watching him.
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  17. 10-06-20 02:40 PM #17
    stepaside777
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    so anyone besides me has sinner Ml?
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  18. 10-06-20 02:47 PM #18
    Glitch
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    sinner ML odds down from +1300 this morning to +750 now
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  19. 10-06-20 02:53 PM #19
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by stepaside777 View Post
    was coming to this forum just to see someone writting 'sinners ML'' but it seems logic has overtaken as you forgotten sport has no logic in it.
    Sports has no logic, exactly.
    Logic says bet on Sinners or even bet on Sinners ML.
    The illogical thing to do is to bet on Nadal.
    It would be over so quickly, you won't even notice it.
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  20. 10-06-20 02:57 PM #20
    adila1401
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    Quote Originally Posted by arie1985 View Post
    Sports has no logic, exactly.
    Logic says bet on Sinners or even bet on Sinners ML.
    The illogical thing to do is to bet on Nadal.
    It would be over so quickly, you won't even notice it.
    Hey pal, can you explain the logic behind "Logic says bet on Sinners or even bet on Sinners ML?"
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  21. 10-06-20 03:03 PM #21
    jjgold
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    Got to be late in France how the hell are they going to play
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  22. 10-06-20 03:07 PM #22
    adila1401
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Got to be late in France how the hell are they going to play
    close the roof, play under lights coach these guys are pros
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  23. 10-06-20 03:07 PM #23
    stepaside777
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Got to be late in France how the hell are they going to play
    indoors I guess, they have a roof and floodlights
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  24. 10-06-20 03:08 PM #24
    JayLA
    On to the next one...
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    I'm done with tennis. Good luck, though
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  25. 10-06-20 03:34 PM #25
    arie1985
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    Quote Originally Posted by stepaside777 View Post
    indoors I guess, they have a roof and floodlights
    Right, but how come they don't have the Hawk Eye system?!
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  26. 10-06-20 03:41 PM #26
    jjgold
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    we are on!
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  27. 10-06-20 03:59 PM #27
    slayer14
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    Going to be hard for Nadal to adjust to late start
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  28. 10-06-20 04:38 PM #28
    Thrilla
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    Nadal in trouble
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  29. 10-06-20 04:39 PM #29
    cincinnatikid513
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    thought the kid was going to take the 1st set serving for the set


    broken


    tb
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  30. 10-06-20 04:49 PM #30
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Nadal in trouble
    u wouldn't know the first thing about trouble

    dumass
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  31. 10-06-20 04:59 PM #31
    Thrilla
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    u wouldn't know the first thing about trouble

    dumass
    Fukk your whore mother up the ass you fukking loser
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  32. 10-06-20 05:01 PM #32
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thrilla View Post
    Fukk your whore mother up the ass you fukking loser
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  33. 10-06-20 05:02 PM #33
    GimpedMaster
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    Sinner looks like the better player out there. He would have won the first set if he had kept his wits about him up 6-5.

    Looks like he'll take a set for sure, maybe take the whole match down to the wire. What an impressive kid.
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  34. 10-06-20 05:02 PM #34
    reallyhardtowin
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    let's go Astros !
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  35. 10-06-20 05:16 PM #35
    slayer14
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    It not possible for nadal to cover the spread now i dont think he can win 6-0 3rd set
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