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Brewer's +140 today, watch this Corbin Burnes kid!
Love getting + money on this coinflip of a game with so many unknown quantities.
First off, Burnes was spit out high on my spreadsheet for value pitchers based on the quantitative metrics I ran in my programming through this off season. But the qualitative, eye test, and spin rate, spin axis changes I saw on this kid In summer camp is crazy good. He's obviously made some big changes from last year.
Let's talk about results last year and his potential.
In his first big league start against the Cardinals, he proceeded to strike out 9 batters in first 3 innings! All 9 outs were strike outs.
In the 4th inning he allowed his first run, via a HR that opened the floodgates for HRs for him. Allowed two more in the game and left after 5 innings, 12ks, 3hrs and 4ER. Over the next 3 starts he allowed 8 more home runs and got sent to the pen where he was mediocre.
What is lost is that his slider had the highest swing and miss rate in the league. His fastball was straight as an arrow though despite a crazy high spin rate. So without movement all that spin and velocity was wasted. Throughout spring and then summer the anecdotes and vids I saw, showed great movement on the FB, he's clearly changed slot to improve his spin axis. The spring)summer camp stats bear this out
If he does finally harness that elite spin rate, coupled with his slider this could be a breakout year. My other question is still "is he a head case?" He never recovered from his early season bomb fest last year, so who knows if early struggles could detail him again. I'll be watching close
Speaking of head cases Yu Darvish, all that talent and his head often throws it all in the garbage. The guy has talked retirement, constantly coming up with phantom injuries, this year he had to be talked out of not staying away due to Covid.
He recently got absolutely rocked and mercy ruled by the White Sox
In a battle of head cases, give me the + money on a kid that is hungry to succeed, get paid, and has shown positive signs in spring.
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Originally Posted by Brock Landers
