1. #1
    Hman
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    Best bets for the Wyndham Championship ⛳

    Best bets for the Wyndham Championship

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
    The 2020 PGA Championship, won by Collin Morikawa, is now in the rearview mirror. We're moving on to the Wyndham Championship at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina.


    Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for this week's tournament.


    Bets to win

    Webb Simpson 9-1; top-5 finish (+300 at DraftKings), top-10 (+160), top-20 (-125)


    Bearman: We have conflicting theories here. I will be the first to admit that there is not much value in taking the favorite in a 156-person event. But I am also a huge Simpson fan (picked him during his win at Harbour Town), and the numbers back up taking him at Sedgefield Country Club. Quite simply, no one has been better here, and it's his home course. Since 2010, he has made the cut all 10 times, finished in the top 11 eight times and won in 2011. His past three appearances have been: 2, T-2, 3, with a scoring average below 66 in those three appearances. Not surprisingly, his metrics are great for this course. Strokes gained: tee-to-green, which measures accuracy off the tee and ability to get it on the green, has been key here, as last year's winner, J.T. Poston, was first in it. Webb is currently 17th on Tour in this metric, 12th in scrambling up to the green and 11th on SG: approach. If you are going to throw down on one guy this week, Simpson is as good as any and as close to a guarantee as there is for making the cut and being in contention. Sprinkling some on top-5 at 3-1, top-10 at +160 or even top-20 at -125 are good bets as well.


    Simpson 9-1; over Patrick Reed (-134 at DK)

    Marks: Simpson always excels at Sedgefield, sporting five top-5 finishes at this event, and he has finished in the top three the past three years. He lives in Charlotte, North Carolina, and loves playing in this state. The metrics needed to win here play to Webb's game extremely well: This season, he is ranked 11th in strokes gained on approach, 29th in greens in regulation, 18th in putting and first in par-4 scoring birdie or better.


    Paul Casey 18-1; Simpson, Casey straight forecast (165-1 at DK)

    Marks: He tied for second last week at the PGA and is probably itching to get back on the course. Casey is 40-under in his past three events, and this season, he is ranked third in strokes gained on approach and 10th in greens in regulation.


    Justin Rose 22-1; top-10 finish (+275 at DK), top-20 (+150)

    Fallica: Rose has played here only once -- a fifth-place finish in 2009 -- but he putted great last week at the PGA, which couldn't have been predicted, given that he missed three straight cuts since back-to-back top-15 finishes in mid-June. But if he figured it all out last week, Rose could make a bunch of birdies this week and be a big factor to win the tournament.


    Harris English 25-1; top-10 finish (+350 at DK)

    Bearman: The English pick looked a lot better last week, when we were getting 100-1 on him, but this is not a major. In a much weaker field, you are getting a quarter of those odds, but English is still a good play this week. He didn't really contend last week at the PGA, but he played four solid rounds and finished T-19, marking his fourth consecutive top-20 finish and seventh in his past eight starts. He is 19th in the aforementioned SG: tee-to-green metric, 11th in greens in regulation percentage and eighth in SG: total. With a weaker field, I think English bumps that top 20 to a top 10 and pays off the +350 with a shot to give someone a 25-1 ticket win.

    Long shots

    Henrik Norlander 65-1

    Kezirian: He did not participate the past two weeks, but he made five straight cuts prior to that. That includes a sixth-place finish at the Memorial, where he gained 8.4 strokes with his putter. On top of that, Bermuda grass is typically his most effective putting surface. He also has a knack for performing well on short courses.


    Jim Furyk 100-1

    Bearman: According to ESPN Stats & Information's Mackenzie Kraemer, four of the past six winners here have been 100-1 or longer, as it's a getable course. Furyk, right at that 100-1 mark, leads the Tour in driving accuracy and greens in regulation, both key stats for this Sedgefield. He has played the event only three times since 2011, but all three have been top-10s, including a T-4 two years ago. As far as his recent form, he missed the cut last week in San Francisco with a pair of 71s but won in his Champions Tour debut the week before. The 17-time PGA Tour winner is one of the better long shots to have action on this week.


    C.T. Pan 125-1

    Kezirian: He finished second at this tournament in 2018, and all of his best work typically comes at short courses. That includes a win last year at the RBC Heritage. Just two weeks ago, Pan ranked second at the Workday Charity Open in shots gained on approach. He has the game in his bag to win this thing as a monster long shot.

    Prop bets

    Doc Redman top-5 finish (12-1 at DK)

    Marks: Redman should benefit from eating some home cooking this week, considering that he grew up near Raleigh, North Carolina, and has played well on Donald Ross courses the past two seasons. This season, he is ranked 15th in strokes gained on approach, 12th in greens in regulation and T-19 in par-4 scoring birdie or better.


    Simpson top-10 finish (+160 at DK); Simpson over Reed (-134)

    Fallica: Simpson has a win, seven top-10s and five top-5s in the past 10 years here, so to say he's the "horse for course" is an understatement. I'd rather take the top-10 price than the win price. Although Reed won here in 2013, he hasn't cracked the top 20 in any other trip.


    Billy Horschel over Tommy Fleetwood (-105)



    Bearman:
    I thought long and hard about taking Horschel to win, but 30-1 isn't a good price for him. Once I saw the matchup with Fleetwood, I jumped on it. Horschel is playing well, with three top-25s before the PGA Championship, and he has three top-11 finishes at the Wyndham Championship, including a T-6 last year and a T-5 in 2016. Fleetwood, on the other hand, has not been himself since his return. After a longer layoff than most, Fleetwood missed the cut at the 3M Open, finished T-35 at the WGC and faded to a T-29 finish at the PGA Championship despite a second-round 64. He has broken par in only three of 10 rounds since his return and has never played this course. Go with the underdog here.


    Casey top-10 finish (+200 at DK)

    Fallica: Casey was having a down year by his standards prior to his runner-up finish at the PGA. Nobody could have seen that type of performance coming, as he missed two cuts and finished 67th of 78th in the WGC just ahead of the PGA. But he has a good history here, and maybe his great play last week will spur him to a solid finish to the season.


    Russell Henley top-20 finish (+300 at DK)

    Marks: Henley's ballstriking has been fantastic -- ranked fourth in strokes gained on approach and 16th in tee to green in his past 46 rounds. He has struggled with putting the past few events but is now back on Bermuda grass, a surface on which he has had a lot more success.


    Brendon Todd top-20 finish (+200 at DK); Todd over Sungjae Im (-110)

    Fallica: Todd has been one of the steadiest performers the past six weeks -- especially in the first three rounds -- putting himself in position to win or post a top-10 finish. He has four top-25s and three top-20s in that span, he played well at the PGA, and he should pick up right where he left off.


    Im misses cut (+163 at DK)

    Fallica: One of the best players on Tour prior to the stoppage in play, Im has missed three of the past seven cuts, and his best finish was T-35 in an event that didn't have a cut. He finished T-6 here a year ago, but the arc of his season this year is a lot different.


    Todd over Corey Conners (-125 at DK)

    Marks: Another player with Carolina ties, Todd has had a great season so far. Coming off an impressive performance last week and finishing T-17 at the PGA, he will be looking to pick up where he left off.

  2. #2
    RudyRuetigger
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    who writes this shit

    what is their salary?


    pathetic really

  3. #3
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    who writes this shit

    what is their salary?


    pathetic really
    not you hman, you are just providing the writeup


    but it sucks

  4. #4
    Hman
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    not you hman, you are just providing the writeup


    but it sucks


    Several ppl who don't have access ask me to post these, so I just kindly oblige

  5. #5
    Mike Huntertz
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    Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for this week's tournament.

    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    who writes this shit

    what is their salary?


    pathetic really

  6. #6
    navyblue81
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    Simpson makes the most sense. Local guy, won won twice already this season. Finished 2nd here last year.

    Outside of him, I’ll put some $$ on Fritelli. Consistent player. Played solid last week. Has good value.

  7. #7
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets for this week's tournament.
    I would love to play him in multiple $530 heads up matches

  8. #8
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by navyblue81 View Post
    Simpson makes the most sense. Local guy, won won twice already this season. Finished 2nd here last year.

    Outside of him, I’ll put some $$ on Fritelli. Consistent player. Played solid last week. Has good value.
    Simpson is a fade this week bro

  9. #9
    jjgold
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    Hman very powerful

  10. #10
    Unrivaled
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    Simpson wins again?

  11. #11
    RangeFinder
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    Ok, I found it Rudy, lol

    Koepka +950

    Fleetwood +1675

    Casey +1820

    Simpson +950

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