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Best bets for PGA Tour 3M Open ⛳
Best bets for PGA Tour 3M Open
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- ESPN Betting Insiders
PGA Tour golf is back in full swing, albeit without the crowds we're accustomed to.
Jon Rahm took home the title at the Memorial Tournament and claimed the world No. 1 ranking in the process.
The tour now heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open. Which players are good bets, and which props are worth a look at TPC Twin Cities?
Betting expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica, ESPN.com sports betting deputy editor David Bearman, ESPN betting analyst Doug Kezirian and fantasy analyst Anita Marks offer their best bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Bets to win
Tommy Fleetwood 17-1 (+200 Top 10, +110 Top 20 at DraftKings)
Fallica: We haven't seen Fleetwood since the restart, but this course should yield a birdie-fest similar to what we saw prior to The Memorial. Last year, Matthew Wolff won at 21-under, so another 20-under-or-so winning score is probably in the cards this week. Fleetwood is one of those guys who can make birdies in bunches, and that should put him squarely in the mix this week in what isn't the deepest field we'll see all year.
Paul Casey 22-1
Marks: Casey's ball striking has been beyond stellar, and TPC Twin Cities fits his game to a tee. He missed the cut last week at The Memorial in part because he posted an 8 on the par-3 12th hole. But with Casey's metrics since the tour returned to action (17th SG: Tee-to-Green and ninth in shots gained on approach), he's a strong value play.
Matthew Wolff 25-1
Bearman: With a one-year sample size to go on for the TPC Twin Cities in Minneapolis, there are worse things than taking the guy who dominated the course last year. Less than a month after turning pro, Wolff shot 21 under in cruising to his first PGA Tour win. His recent form isn't bad, either, with a 22nd-place finish at the Memorial, even after an opening 77 on Thursday. He finished runner-up two weeks earlier in Detroit on a course that was a birdie-fest, just like this one should be. Wolff is 12th on tour in Shots Gained: Off-the-Tee and would need to improve his poor putting stats to have a shot at the repeat.
Lucas Glover 33-1
Marks: Lucas finished T-7 here last year and has played well as of late, making the cut in every event he has teed it up in since June. Glover has been sporting exceptional ball-striking form every week and is ranked 26th in SG: Tee-to-Green since the return. If his putter cooperates this week on bentgrass, watch out.
Harris English 35-1 (+200 Top 20 at DraftKings)
Bearman: English quietly put four good rounds together this past weekend, with a 2-over 74 on Saturday his worst score. With the mayhem of Jack's course knocking the entire field back, the T-13 finish with no blow-up rounds should be considered a success. That followed a month-long layoff after a T-17 at Harbour Town in June. When he does tee it up, English has had good results, with nine top-25 finishes in 14 starts this season, including five top-10s, most of which were during the fall circuit. For metrics this week, we are looking at Shots Gained: Tee-to-Green, a stat that Wolff led the field in during last year's win. English is 13th in this stat and second in the field behind Tony Finau. He's also 10th in Shots Gained: Total and 11th in greens hit in regulation. The 35-1 price is horrible, and he played the event last year but missed the cut at 1-under.
Henrik Norlander (40-1, +275 Top 20 at DK)
Bearman: One of the few golfers not to get destroyed over the weekend by the beast known as Muirfield Village, Norlander finished a respectable sixth place, his third top-10 of the season. Since missing the cut in the tour's return at Colonial, the Swede has placed in all four events, with a T-12 in Detroit and this past week's top-10 finish. The course and field are primed for a first-time PGA Tour winner. A 40-1 flier for a guy in good form is worth a shot in this field. I'd also play him in matchups and to finish in the top 20.
Long shots
Jhonattan Vegas (70-1)
Kezirian: Let's have some fun with one of the biggest hitters on the tour. Vegas is among the top 10 in driving distance, which should allow him to hit wedge into some greens this weekend. Of the players in this particular field, he ranks as the top guy in strokes gained off the tee. Birdies are doable for the 35-year-old, who does have three victories on his résumé.
Charles Howell III (80-1)
Bearman: If there's a week to go deep into the long shots, this would be it. Players have at most one prior event played here, and only two of the top 10 players in the world are in the field. CH3 was right in the thick of it last year, two shots off the lead and in sixth place entering Sunday. A final-round par 71 ended his chances. His form has been a mess of late with no top-40s since the tour's return, but this is a guy with three career wins (two of which came in lesser-tiered fields) and who had three top-10s from October to January. There's no better chance to get back on track than a birdie-fest track in Minny.
Keith Mitchell (110-1)
Kezirian: One of these long shots will win at some point, and it's more likely to happen at a tournament like this, given only six of the top 30 players are participating. For whatever reason, Mitchell has performed fairly well in windy conditions, and forecasters anticipate that type of environment for the 3M Open. Recent form supports this play, given he ranked third last week in greens in regulation. All that is enough for me to grab triple-digits.
Aaron Wise (125-1)
Kezirian: His top trait is his driver, and I expect Wise to unleash it while also capitalizing on his fourth-place ranking in greens in regulation percentage. Plus, he ranks in the top 25 in approaches between 100 and 125 yards, and his driver should enable plenty of those opportunities. He's a former Rookie of the Year and has proven he can outshine most of these players. I just now need him to put it all together for his second career PGA Tour win.
Prop bets
Glover +125 Top 20, +250 Top 10 at DK
Fallica: Glover finished seventh here last year and has played solid golf since the restart, posting four top-25 finishes and was probably headed for a fifth straight last week until the conditions got super tough on Sunday. This course will certainly give Glover plenty of birdie chances and a repeat of a top-10 here.
Norlander +150 Top 30 at DK
Marks: I've been on Norlander for several weeks. His game is on point, and he is coming off a T-6 at The Memorial. Solid ball-striking is needed this week to win in Minnesota, and Norlander is tied for third in SG: Tee-to-Green since the tour resumed play.
Brooks Koepka +275 ** at DK
Marks: This is Koepka's first appearance at the 3M. He is still dealing with knee issues, and considering this will be his third straight tour stop, that could be a problem. And with Koepka's history of using tournaments like these to tinker with his game, I say fade.
Tony Finau 3-1 Top 10 and -125 vs. Fleetwood at DK
Marks: Finau played well last week and finished eighth at The Memorial, and he enters the 3M as one of the longest off the tee (he ranks 20th in driving distance since June), a metric that plays well in the Twin Cities. As for the matchup, I expect Fleetwood to come in a little rusty, considering this will be his first tournament back since the pandemic halted play, and it will be his first time playing this course.
Sahith Theegala +350 Top 40 at DK
Marks: Theegala impressed the world as a top amateur (he is a three-time NCAA All-American at Pepperdine) and is playing against a very weak field this week, so why not take a chance?
Erik van Rooyen 4-1 Top 10 and -120 vs. Dylan Frittelli at DK
Marks: I'm banking on some home cooking for van Rooyen. He attended the University of Minnesota, is married to a local and is staying at his in-laws' home this week. Since the tour returned, he ranks 22nd in SG: Tee-to-Green and is tied for 20th in shots gained on approach.
Norlander +550 Top 10, +275 Top 20 at DK
Fallica: Norlander has played some decent golf since the restart, notably finishing T-6 last week. But he also finished 12th at the Rocket Mortgage. He's not really a win candidate this week, but it wouldn't be surprising if he cashed a top-20 finish at nearly 3-1.
Sepp Straka +700 Top 10, +350 Top 20
Fallica: The weekend didn't treat Straka well last week, but he played quite well at the Workday (T-14) and at the Rocket Mortgage (T-8). To borrow a phrase from my horse racing background, this type of "class relief" should be what Straka needs to make a return to the top 20.
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