2020 MLB betting guide: Best bets for win totals, World Series & more ⚾
2020 MLB betting guide: Best bets for win totals, World Series and more
ESPN INSIDER ($ Material)
The Major League Baseball season is finally upon us. Yes, it will look different. And instead of a 162-game marathon, this season will be a 60-game sprint. So which teams and players will offer value in terms of betting?
ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Joe Fortenbaugh and Preston Johnson offer their best futures bets.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Win totals
Minnesota Twins over 35 wins (and -120 to win AL Central, -200 to reach playoffs)
Kezirian: Based on 2019 win percentages, the Twins have the easiest schedule in 2020. I also love what they did in the offseason, adding Josh Donaldson to a lineup that set the single-season home run record. The Twins now have six guys who hit at least 30 dingers last year. Plus, the starting rotation is vastly improved with the additions of Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey. The Indians and/or White Sox will challenge for the division, but I see Minnesota as the class of the American League Central. Even so, I will lay -200 just to protect myself in the event the Indians or White Sox completely outperform expectations. But I also like -120 to win the division and -200 to reach the playoffs.
Fortenbaugh: The Red Sox won 51.8% of their games in 2019. In order for me to lose this bet, Boston would need to win 51.6% of its contests in 2020 despite trading Mookie Betts and his 6.6 WAR from a year ago (ninth in MLB), losing seven-time All-Star pitcher Chris Sale to a season-ending elbow injury and firing 2018 World Series-winning manager Alex Cora for his role in the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. Throw in a schedule that features a third of its games against the Yankees and Rays and you've got an extremely daunting challenge in front of skipper Ron Roenicke & Co.
Tampa Bay Rays over 33.5 wins (and +350 to win AL East +350, 10-1 to win AL)
Johnson: The Rays no longer are flying under the radar after their 2019 postseason run a year ago saw them take the eventual AL champion Astros to five games. They've been as innovative as any club in baseball (the first team to fully implement a steady opening pitcher and bullpen-game approach). On top of that, the rotation got only 107 innings out of 2018 Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow threw only 60⅔ innings due to injuries but posted a 1.78 ERA.
Considering a pitching staff that already ranked third in the majors in ERA (No. 1 in FIP) last season will likely get bigger contributions from two of its best arms, the upside in 2020 is fielding the best staff in baseball. The bullpen is stacked. Kevin Cash is one of the best managers in the league. People will point to the lack of bats in the Rays' lineup, but they still ranked 12th in batting average (.254) and ninth in wRC+ (102). They added outfielder Yoshitomo Tsutsugo out of Japan and have promising young talent they developed within their farm system in Willy Adames and Brandon Lowe.
The shortened season and the ability to navigate bullpen usage and pitching rotations in games that hold significantly more value than normal sets up best for Tampa Bay. This is a team that won 96 games last year anyway, and the alternate records such as BaseRuns and third-order winning percentage (uses other underlying statistics and adjusts for the quality of opponents to derive a projected record) actually graded the Rays a 98- and 99-win team, respectively. I'm all-in on Tampa Bay.
Johnson: I love the upside for the Reds this season. The reasoning behind my futures bets on this team includes a combination of bad luck last year (winning just 75 games despite BaseRuns and third-order winning percentage grading them as an 84-to-86-win team) and the hiring of the founder of Driveline Baseball, Kyle Boddy, to serve as director of the team's pitching initiatives and pitching coordinator. They also brought in other names associated with Driveline to bolster their commitment to pitching development. Combined with an overhaul of the hitting development staff, it's remarkably evident the Reds are embracing the value and impact of analytics. In a shortened 60-game season that will require optimal navigation between a pitching staff and bullpen, I want to be putting my money on a team that puts its faith in data and analytics.
The Reds also invested in free agency with the additions of Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Wade Miley, Pedro Strop and Shogo Akiyama out of Japan. For an offense that ranked 24th in batting average (.244) and 25th in wRC+ (87), it's eye-opening that the Reds still managed to score nearly as many runs as they allowed in 2019. With Moustakas and Castellanos in the lineup and upside in Aristides Aquino, who hit 47 home runs between Triple-A and the majors last season, I expect the offense to improve dramatically.
Pitching coach Derek Johnson's influence on the Reds is the reason Cincinnati was able to keep pace with its opposition over the course of the season. The Reds brought Johnson in from Milwaukee after he spent three seasons working wonders on the Brewers' pitching staff. Sonny Gray had a career year. Luis Castillo struck out a career-high 10.67 batters per nine innings. Anthony DeSclafani posted a .264 wOBA against in the second half of the season, the eighth lowest in all of baseball. Cincinnati also made a trade for a high-upside guy in Trevor Bauer.
The Reds were ultimately a better team than their record indicated in 2019. They played in a remarkable 57 one-run games and went 24-33 in those contests. With the personnel additions and the attention to detail the Driveline team will bring to pitching analytics, the ceiling in Cincinnati is going to be high -- potentially World Series high.
Johnson: There isn't a team getting more hyped in the AL than the White Sox. They had one of the best offseasons in baseball with the acquisitions of Edwin Encarnacion, Yasmani Grandal, Nomar Mazara, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Steve Cishek. Grandal's impact on the pitching staff with his pitch framing alone can't be understated. What tends to happen in these situations, however, is an overreaction in the preseason betting markets.
For the White Sox to go over their season win total of 31.5 games this season (52.5% winning percentage), they'd need to improve on last year's record of 72-89 by the equivalent of 14 wins. Considering their alternate records pointed to Chicago playing more like a 66-to-69-win team, it's likely an even bigger leap would need to be in store. One of the main reasons the White Sox overachieved in 2019 was because they led the majors in batting average on balls in play (BABIP). In fact, they had three players that ranked top-six in all of baseball in BABIP last year: Yoan Moncada (.406), Tim Anderson (.399) and Leury Garcia (.353). The expectation from season to season is to bat roughly .300 once a ball is put into play. Hitters that deviate from .300 to the extreme are likely candidates to regress the following season.
Are the White Sox going to be better in 2020? Absolutely. Are they going to be 32-plus-wins better? I don't see it.
Johnson: I show a pretty substantial discrepancy between my projection and the current market. Not only was Arizona better than a 31-win team in 2019 anyway (in terms of a 60-game schedule), but the Diamondbacks made trades for Starling Marte and Zac Gallen to go along with the signing of Madison Bumgarner. They also expect to get more healthy innings out of Luke Weaver, who had a short but stellar 2019. Even if they don't wind up improving much on offense or in the rotation, I don't see this team being any worse than last year's version that still won games at a high enough rate to cash an over ticket here in 2020. I also took a small shot on 30-1 to win the NL pennant as well.
Johnson: Colorado didn't make any improvements in the offseason, unless you still believe Matt Kemp has something left in the tank. Last year's club graded out to be a 70-to-71-win team, so in a division that saw three of the other four teams seemingly get better, it's hard to envision how the Rockies do, too -- not to mention Nolan Arenado could be a prime trade candidate in the midseason. The top-heavy offense won't be enough to make up for their deficiencies on the pitching staff playing half of their games at Coors Field.
Johnson: As far as the Giants are concerned, we might never see a team win 38 one-run games again in my lifetime. The closest comparison that comes to mind is the 2016 Texas Rangers. The Rangers went 36-11 in one-run games, leading to a 95-67 record despite just a plus-8 run differential. They were later swept by the Blue Jays in the playoffs and went 78-84 the following year. San Francisco went 38-16 in one-run games last season. Regression is imminent there, and while the alternate records such as BaseRuns and third-order win percentage considered them a 70-win ballclub, that 70-win club suffered major downgrades to both the rotation and the bullpen in the offseason. The offense will still be one of the worst in the majors, and I expect life after manager Bruce Bochy will take some time to work itself out in San Francisco. World Series/pennant/division bets
Kezirian: Is Texas really that bad? These odds would suggest a 5.9% chance to win the division, and I think the circumstances present a stronger likelihood. It starts with an abbreviated season, which lends itself to atypical outcomes, and the rest of the division. The Angels have a solid lineup, but their pitching is beyond shaky, and they just never seem to put it all together. Oakland is a contender, but the A's have been such slow starters in recent years, and that is not exactly ideal for a 60-game season. Houston is understandably the favorite, but it lost Gerrit Cole, and there is still no way to gauge how the Astros will respond to the sign-stealing allegations. On top of all that, Texas added Corey Kluber and has the division's best rotation. The lineup has some holes, but we are getting 16-1, and that's too good to pass up.
Fortenbaugh: The A's have won 97 games in each of the past two seasons while recording the game's fifth-best run differential in 2019 (plus-165) and sixth-best run differential in 2018 (plus-139). The franchise boasts Gold Glove talent at the corners (first baseman Matt Olson and third baseman Matt Chapman) and is dripping with 30-plus-home run explosion (over the course of a 162-game season, of course) in Olson, Chapman, shortstop Marcus Semien and left fielder Khris Davis. And that's before we even commence a conversation about a rotation overflowing with upside in youngsters Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk to complement 28-year-old Sean Manaea. This is the year it pops for the A's.
Twins -120 to win AL Central
Johnson: I'm fairly bullish on the Twins, but their win total of 35 is ambitious. However, Minnesota is still far and away the most complete team in the division. They led the majors in home runs and RBIs in 2019 and improved with the addition of Josh Donaldson.
The Twins notched 101 wins in 2019, and at the price of -120 to win the AL Central we need them to win only 54.5% of the time to break even on this proposition. My projections currently have them winning it 58.9% of the time. Prop bets
Kezirian: He's probably the fourth-best hitter on his own team, but this is a justifiable long shot. First off, he has posted 35 homers in consecutive seasons and even drove in 98 runs last year. He's more than capable of MVP-type production, especially with Mookie Betts now batting in front of him and having Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner as protection. Plus, he's incredibly streaky, and that suits him perfectly for this abbreviated season. Last year over one 61-game stretch, he batted .273 with 19 HRs and 42 RBIs. Additionally, he will likely play for a team that wins its division, which always helps in MVP voting. I also think Muncy has enough credibility as a hitter that will prevent voters from dismissing him if he puts up the necessary numbers.
Kezirian: In my eyes, the coronavirus has increased the likelihood of more random outcomes. Stars could easily miss time after contracting the virus, leaving some peripheral players with a chance to shine. Guerrero certainly has the power and swing path to compete for the home run crown, as he demonstrated in last year's Home Run Derby. The Blue Jays are not allowed to play in their home ballpark, so the new venue could create a huge advantage.
Fortenbaugh: The 22-year-old flamethrower will begin the season working out of the bullpen after a positive COVID-19 test delayed his arrival at summer camp. But in a shortened season that won't feature any 10-game winners, old-school voters will have to rely on metrics other than the archaic "win" statistic. Luzardo's much-hyped 2019 debut featured a 1.50 ERA over six starts with a robust 16 strikeouts. He also threw a stellar three innings, surrendering just one hit, in Oakland's 5-1 wild-card loss to the Rays. A three-pitch mix that features a devastating 97 mph fastball to go along with his changeup and breaking ball, Luzardo's arsenal will no doubt be a popular talking point this season, whether it's being deployed from the rotation or bullpen.
Johnson: There wasn't a bat hotter than Soler's down the stretch of the 2019 season. Soler hit 20 home runs the final two months of the year (52 games). In a shortened season, the variance will increase, and one of the league's streakiest hitters at 40-1 to perform similarly in a 60-game 2020 season is certainly enticing. Last year Soler finished 98th percentile in barrel percentage, 97th percentile in hard-hit percentage and 96th percentile in exit velocity. The guy is an absolute crusher. Give me Soler long balls in the hitter-friendly summer months again at this price in a shortened season for the max, please. I was even able to snag a 1000-1 on Soler to win AL MVP.
Johnson: I can't mention a potential sleeper home run champion without mentioning Robert. Not only did Robert just hit two home runs in the White Sox intrasquad game, but these bombs are absolutely monstrous. It looks like footage from a home run derby.
Last year Robert was the minor league's youngest 30-30 player since 1999 and posted the first 30-30-.300 season since Jose Cardenal in 1961. I'm happy to take a longer shot on an efficient power bat MLB pitchers haven't seen yet.
Clayton Kershaw 25-1 to win NL Cy Young
Johnson:Walker Buehler stands to be in the mix, but he's only an 8-1 payoff. Kershaw, who was announced as the Dodgers' Opening Day starter, is a little more intriguing at +2500. Kershaw's second half last year flew under the radar. He posted a 2.95 ERA in 79⅓ innings with a 31.1% strikeout rate. His age and season-long durability would typically be a concern, but that isn't really the case in a 60-game season. Pitching for a team in Chavez Ravine that can potentially get him to 10-plus wins in 12-13 starts with a sub-3.00 ERA and an elite strikeout rate makes him a prime candidate.
Johnson: Because of the shortened season, I took a small piece on the Padres' Yates to win the NL Cy Young and the A's Hendriks to win the AL award. If there was ever a year a closer gets a serious look, it would be in this scenario and on an elite arm that racks up 25-plus saves on a team that makes a playoff run. Neither the Padres or Athletics project to blow a ton of teams out, so the opportunity for a plethora of one- to three-run wins in pitcher-friendly ballparks is there.
Rays also added few guys from cardinals that will help their offense tremendously. Getting Jose Martinez into the AL so he doesn’t have to worry about fielding will make his bat even better, plus they have a lefty bat to platoon at times so their gonna get better production out of DH than some might expect. Martinez rakes lefties and he takes good abs vs elite power arms. They also got Randy Arozarena who many in St. Louis were frustrated he never got a fair chance here, guy has raked whenever given the opportunity (He was raking in spring training before the Rona shutdown also). and he a plus defender in that big outfield!!
We pretty excited about the young pitching prospect cards got in return but he still few years away while rays are gonna get quality production out those guys right away! Tampa pitching is scary good, the fact they could afford to deal such a highly touted young arm says all ya need to know!
Just hope that trade doesn’t turn out as lopsided as the one Pirates fans have to be sick when thinking bout how rays got over on them in the archer trade! Meadows a beast and he not even gonna end up being the best player rays got! Glastnow has become a legit ace now that he got away from pirates awful pitching philosophy that holds back young talented arms (It does help revive washed up vets). You would think they would understand different pitchers require different plans but nope pirates insist on screwing with their talented arms to try and make them conform! They be lucky if archer pitches 2 full seasons on that entire contract while meadows rakes and glastnow competes for cy youngs! Man the rays front office is shrewd! Imagine if they drew any fans and had some money to spend!! I like them to win the East!!!
I usually love the A’s but not in this shortened season cause they typically start slow and go on sick runs in august and sept!
The reds def scare me in the central, pitching is filthy. Not sure how their lineup will come together tho? Doesn’t always work when you throw bunch of pieces together and try to make them fit!
Arizona another team that gonna be benefiting from former cardinals. Love this team to give dodgers a run in the west and as a team who could make some noise in playoffs! Mad bum might not be same but he still a guy you must fear in a series!!
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2020 MLB betting guide: Best bets for win totals, World Series & more ⚾
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