1. #1
    Hman's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige 👊

    Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Ige


    After a star-studded event to kick off the Fight Island era, we have a rapid turnaround, midweek UFC card. It won't have the same level of ranked talent, but fans will appreciate the UFC's squeezing in a bonus event during an already busy July on Yas Island in Abu Dhabi.

    The winner of the main event Wednesday will be setting himself up for a title eliminator spot at featherweight, now that Alexander Volkanovski has cemented the title, with a clear contender already named in Marlon Moraes. With former champion Max Holloway sitting on two straight title losses, the winner Wednesday could catapult into the title mix by calling out Holloway or challenging Aljamain Sterling to determine who gets the shot after Moraes.

    Prelims begin at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.

    Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

    Featherweight main event: No. 6 Calvin Kattar (-300) vs. No. 10 Dan Ige (+250)

    Tale Of The Tape

    Last fight weight class Featherweight Featherweight
    Age 28 32
    Height 67 71
    Reach 71 72
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 62 64
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 2:1 3:0
    Distance knockdown rate 3.0% 2.9%
    Head jab accuracy 19% 32%
    Head power accuracy 36% 38%
    Total standup strike ratio 0.8 0.8
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 71% 68%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 100%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.72 0.10
    Takedown accuracy 29% 33%
    Advances per takedown/top control 1.6 0.0
    Opponent takedown attempts 13 9
    Takedown defense 69% 78%
    Share of total ground time in control 47% 47%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.08 0.00
    The stand-up metrics show two well-matched strikers. Both tend to hang back on their pacing yet have accuracy well above average. If they each wait for the other to initiate, we could start with a staring contest. But once the leather starts flying, there's a key difference between the two, and that's in their use of power. Kattar favors a striking mix that has more jabs than power, and Ige throws heat on the majority of his strikes. If they are otherwise evenly matched in terms of accuracy and pace, it might mean that Ige lands more damage as the fight wears on. Or it could mean that Kattar has more motivation to keep Ige on the outside with a long and sharp jab.

    The ground game differences should be more pronounced, if the fight gets there. Ige is far more likely to try to take the fight down and has spent an above average share of his career fight time on the ground or in the process of trying to get there. Meanwhile, Kattar has spent just 2% of his Octagon time on the mat, plus only 2% more in the clinch. He clearly prefers to keep the fight at long range.

    Back in a full-size cage on Fight Island instead of the smaller one at the Apex arena in Las Vegas, Kattar should be able to spend plenty of time at range. But five rounds is a long time to evade a dogged grappler. The position battle will be the key to scoring the rounds.

    E+ recommends: Money line lean on Ige at well over +200 and a play on over 2.5 rounds.

    Other values on the card

    The co-main event will likely play out as a striker-versus-grappler matchup. Flyweights Tim Elliott (-120) and Ryan Benoit (+100) are both coming off losses, but each has faced top-ranked talent and could make noise in a fairly thin division that is about to crown a new champ.

    Statistically, the two have similar stand-up striking accuracy. Elliott is the busier striker, and Benoit has more dangerous power. But when Benoit fails to get a striking finish, he has not performed well on judges' scorecards. That could be because of his being controlled on the mat when fights are taken down. Plus, it's on the ground that Elliott should have the biggest advantage. His price should remain affordably close to pick 'em, and it's worth playing, assuming he scrambles better whenever they close distance.

    E+ recommends: Money line play on Elliott.

    Also on the main card, two top-10 bantamweights will compete at featherweight in yet another striker-versus-grappling pairing. Cody Stamann (+115) will have the grappling advantage against Jimmie Rivera (-135), but he'll have to overcome Rivera's 95% take-down defense. Fortunately, Stamann is coming off a strong performance in June, while Rivera is returning from more than a year out of the cage.

    E+ recommends: Money line lean on Stamann at plus money.

  2. #2
    pimike's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Thanks buddy.

    Ige has great value if you ask me.
    This post was nominated 1 time . To view the nominated thread please click here. People who nominated: leovegas

  3. #3
    leovegas's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Quote Originally Posted by pimike View Post
    Thanks buddy.

    Ige has great value if you ask me.
    took +239

  4. #4
    Bcats Winning Everywhere
    Bcatswin's Avatar SBR PRO
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    Nice info

  5. #5
    johnnyvegas13's Avatar Become A Pro!
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    Ok thinking about fading katerrr