1. #1
    Hman
    [Too Long]
    Hman's Avatar Moderator
    Join Date: 11-04-17
    Posts: 17,198
    Betpoints: 376

    Best bets for UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal 👊

    Best bets for UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


    It might not be beachside, but the UFC's rebranding of Yas Island in Abu Dhabi as "Fight Island" certainly delivered some fresh buzz to the sport. The location will host elite matchups in a fresh environment, buoyed by previously travel-restricted talent stacking four coronavirus pandemic fight cards over three weeks.


    Fighters have been scratched from recent matchups due to positive tests, but in a twist, the main event this week has generated increased excitement due to a late replacement.


    With the dropout of Gilbert Burns and rapid replacement by Jorge Masvidal, defending welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against the current "BMF" belt holder. That means that at UFC 251, there are arguably four belts on the line. That's not bad sports entertainment for one weekend.


    In the bantamweight and featherweight divisions, two former champs will return to the cage as underdogs. Jose Aldo and Max Holloway will not face each other (they've already done so twice), but both will get a shot at a title. It's a test of whether the betting market has too short a memory or knows when to favor fresher talent.


    Prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.


    Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

    Welterweight championship: Champ Kamaru Usman (-300) vs. No. 3 Jorge Masvidal (+250)


    Tale Of The Tape

    KAMARU USMAN JORGE MASVIDAL
    Last fight weight class Welterweight Welterweight
    Age 33 35
    Height 72 71
    Reach 76 74
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 183 293
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 5:0 10:5
    Distance knockdown rate 2.8% 2.6%
    Head jab accuracy 36% 33%
    Head power accuracy 35% 37%
    Total standup strike ratio 1.2 0.9
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 72% 76%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 98%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.71 0.20
    Takedown accuracy 51% 58%
    Advances per takedown/top control 1.0 0.4
    Opponent takedown attempts 17 113
    Takedown defense 100% 80%
    Share of total ground time in control 100% 64%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.05 0.16
    The defending champ is about to face his third consecutive opponent with American Top Team experience in a title fight. Having bested Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington, Usman has strong backing in the betting market, suggesting that he could close at a price higher than his prior title appearances. Is that because Masvidal took the fight on short notice or because a dominant wrestler-striker hybrid presents a bad matchup for a wily but undersized knockout artist?


    It might be a combination of both. Usman was preparing to face Burns, who did to Woodley what previously only Usman had managed to do. Usman undoubtedly wants to leverage his dominant top game, and against an older, slightly smaller opponent who has been pinned against the cage before, that seems like a favorable strategy.


    Fans should expect Masvidal to have his best chances while standing; he has succeeded in striking duels enough to ensure that his highlight reel will echo in eternity. But many of those knockouts came against fighters not necessarily at their peaks or in a full weight class smaller. He gets a slight edge in terms of technical striking compared to Usman, but Masvidal's knockdown rate is on par with the champ's, and Masvidal has taken far more damage between the two. Plus, Usman averages a more aggressive pace.


    Masvidal likely wants a striking duel, but that by no means guarantees he'll get the better of one. Meanwhile, should Usman feel pressure at any point on the feet -- he fully capable of keeping the fight against the cage or on the mat -- he can easily rack up points on the cards.


    E+ recommends: Money line play on Usman.


    Other plays on the fight: The main event is the title fight least expected to go the distance. But the durability of both fighters, as well as the presumed respect of each other's threats, could lead to a feeling out process and a conservative game plan early.


    E+ recommends: Use the over 1.5 rounds in parlays or the money line over 2.5 rounds. If Usman got any coaching whatsoever this week, it was to not take risks or drop for a takedown against a flying knee.



    Featherweight championship: Champ Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. No. 1 Max Holloway (+185)

    Tale Of The Tape

    MAX HOLLOWAY ALEX VOLKANOVSKI
    Last fight weight class Featherweight Featherweight
    Age 28 31
    Height 71 66
    Reach 70 71
    Stance Orthodox Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 310 111
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 8:0 4:1
    Distance knockdown rate 0.8% 2.7%
    Head jab accuracy 32% 40%
    Head power accuracy 41% 41%
    Total standup strike ratio 1.2 1.1
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 71% 68%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 99%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.02 0.51
    Takedown accuracy 83% 35%
    Advances per takedown/top control 3.6 0.8
    Opponent takedown attempts 134 22
    Takedown defense 85% 73%
    Share of total ground time in control 42% 84%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.32 0.14
    On paper, we can easily see why this is a fun pairing to run back a second time. These two average the highest combined standup striking pace of any of the three title pairings, and both deliver their aggressive strikes with abnormally high precision. In their first fight, Volkanovski implemented leg kicks early and often but technically was outstruck in the final two rounds.


    However, the rematch of last year's upset of the longtime featherweight champ is occurring under strange circumstances. Holloway revealed that he did not train with any partners, despite having lost to Volkanovski in a predominantly standup affair. There are real concerns about Holloway's ability to control early exchanges against an opponent who now knows that Holloway is not invincible.


    The numbers lean Volkanovski -- but only slightly. Holloway has taken enormous amounts of damage in his career, well beyond his years. But he's still young. He showed in his first fight that he can rally and put on his usual high pace despite being hurt. However, it's difficult to imagine that he can do better in a rematch under current circumstances.


    E+ recommends: Slight lean on Volkanovski but not at current prices. Likely a pass unless prices tighten up or diverge significantly to make an upset by decision prop possible.



    Bantamweight championship: No. 3 Petr Yan (-240) vs. No. 6 Jose Aldo (+200)

    Tale Of The Tape

    PETR YAN JOSE ALDO
    Last fight weight class Bantamweight Bantamweight
    Age 27 33
    Height 67.5 67
    Reach 67 70
    Stance Switch Orthodox
    Analyzed minutes 69 304
    Standup striking offense
    Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 7:1 9:2
    Distance knockdown rate 3.3% 2.3%
    Head jab accuracy 28% 32%
    Head power accuracy 35% 34%
    Total standup strike ratio 1.1 0.9
    Striking defense
    Total head strike defense 76% 76%
    Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 99%
    Wrestling and grappling
    TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.24 0.08
    Takedown accuracy 53% 65%
    Advances per takedown/top control 0.4 1.5
    Opponent takedown attempts 24 96
    Takedown defense 88% 92%
    Share of total ground time in control 67% 72%
    Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.09 0.14
    The first title fight of the night will determine the new bantamweight champion after Henry Cejudo's abdication by retirement. Former and longtime featherweight champion Aldo recently dropped to bantamweight but lost his division debut. The matchup is a strange one, given the higher-ranked fighters available in the division, but nonetheless, Yan will return from his knockout of Urijah Faber to take on Faber's old rival, Aldo.


    Changing weight classes always complicates things. On one hand, Aldo earned comparable striking stats against larger and more formidable opponents than Yan has faced. On the other hand, in a five-round fight, endurance was never Aldo's strength, and that could be further at risk after he had to drop additional weight.


    Assuming the numbers aren't skewed by Aldo's drop in weight, Yan is capable of putting on a greater pace and changing levels. If Aldo can't pull out one of his old tricks early in an away-game setting, it could be a long night for him.


    E+ recommends: Money line lean on Yan.

  2. #2
    TheMetsSuck
    TheMetsSuck's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 01-14-12
    Posts: 2,363

    Masvidal at +200. Sign me up

  3. #3
    Kermit
    My Finger Smells Like Pork
    Kermit's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-27-10
    Posts: 22,568
    Betpoints: 60

    Quote Originally Posted by TheMetsSuck View Post
    Masvidal at +200. Sign me up
    I'd take him at +275 to win ITD. I don't see how he could win a 5 round decision.

  4. #4
    Art Vandelay
    Corona on St. Pats... WTF!
    Art Vandelay's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-11-06
    Posts: 4,032
    Betpoints: 5822

    Quote Originally Posted by Kermit View Post
    I'd take him at +275 to win ITD. I don't see how he could win a 5 round decision.
    Yep, if it goes all 5 rounds Usman takes it. I'm on Masvidal ITD or KO/TKO!
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 08/06/2020

    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/27/2020


  5. #5
    Fred The Hammer
    Fred The Hammer's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-13-13
    Posts: 6,374
    Betpoints: 6755

    BetOnline has Over 4.5 +115. I'm hoping Street Jesus catches him, but not betting it. I have Yan in a bunch of parlays and +105 to win by KO. Aldo is near the end and 135 is hard on him. Yan physically reminds me of Khabib. Not really that muscular, but incredible functional strength

  6. #6
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 20,954
    Betpoints: 11

    Quote Originally Posted by Fred The Hammer View Post
    BetOnline has Over 4.5 +115. I'm hoping Street Jesus catches him, but not betting it. I have Yan in a bunch of parlays and +105 to win by KO. Aldo is near the end and 135 is hard on him. Yan physically reminds me of Khabib. Not really that muscular, but incredible functional strength
    If you like Usman, that over 4.5 at + money looks enticing.
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/27/2020

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/17/2020

    SBR Bash
    Punta Cana
    Attendee 2/4/2017


  7. #7
    Unwritten Law
    Unwritten Law's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 10-31-13
    Posts: 2,407
    Betpoints: 60

    Damn Jake cleaning up these Trivias!
    175 pts

    3-QUESTION
    SBR TRIVIA WINNER 07/30/2020


  8. #8
    magpie878
    magpie878's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-04-18
    Posts: 697
    Betpoints: 2591

    Quote Originally Posted by Art Vandelay View Post
    Yep, if it goes all 5 rounds Usman takes it. I'm on Masvidal ITD or KO/TKO!
    Two different bets? Confused, as ITD covers all winning methods other than decision.

  9. #9
    CanuckG
    CanuckG's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 12-23-10
    Posts: 20,537
    Betpoints: 120

    Every square I know will be eating up Masvidal +200

  10. #10
    sosawestbrook
    sosawestbrook's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-10-16
    Posts: 2,773
    Betpoints: 2748

    3 all time greats as big underdogs & they tell you to eat the chalk. classic ESPN.

  11. #11
    johnnyvegas13
    johnnyvegas13's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 05-21-15
    Posts: 13,191
    Betpoints: 33

    Dogs have won a lot of title fights...

  12. #12
    jonal
    jonal's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-01-09
    Posts: 708
    Betpoints: 327

    over in the usman fight seems like a good bet

  13. #13
    Robert Schroeder
    PARTY TIME
    Robert Schroeder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-17-07
    Posts: 134
    Betpoints: 18

    Yan , Halloway, Usman parlay free money !!!

Top