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Best bets for UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal 👊
Best bets for UFC 251: Kamaru Usman vs. Jorge Masvidal
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
It might not be beachside, but the UFC's rebranding of Yas Island in Abu Dhabi as "Fight Island" certainly delivered some fresh buzz to the sport. The location will host elite matchups in a fresh environment, buoyed by previously travel-restricted talent stacking four coronavirus pandemic fight cards over three weeks.
Fighters have been scratched from recent matchups due to positive tests, but in a twist, the main event this week has generated increased excitement due to a late replacement.
With the dropout of Gilbert Burns and rapid replacement by Jorge Masvidal, defending welterweight champion Kamaru Usman defends his title against the current "BMF" belt holder. That means that at UFC 251, there are arguably four belts on the line. That's not bad sports entertainment for one weekend.
In the bantamweight and featherweight divisions, two former champs will return to the cage as underdogs. Jose Aldo and Max Holloway will not face each other (they've already done so twice), but both will get a shot at a title. It's a test of whether the betting market has too short a memory or knows when to favor fresher talent.
Prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Welterweight championship: Champ Kamaru Usman (-300) vs. No. 3 Jorge Masvidal (+250)
Tale Of The TapeThe defending champ is about to face his third consecutive opponent with American Top Team experience in a title fight. Having bested Tyron Woodley and Colby Covington, Usman has strong backing in the betting market, suggesting that he could close at a price higher than his prior title appearances. Is that because Masvidal took the fight on short notice or because a dominant wrestler-striker hybrid presents a bad matchup for a wily but undersized knockout artist?
KAMARU USMAN JORGE MASVIDAL Last fight weight class Welterweight Welterweight Age 33 35 Height 72 71 Reach 76 74 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 183 293 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 5:0 10:5 Distance knockdown rate 2.8% 2.6% Head jab accuracy 36% 33% Head power accuracy 35% 37% Total standup strike ratio 1.2 0.9 Striking defense Total head strike defense 72% 76% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 98% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.71 0.20 Takedown accuracy 51% 58% Advances per takedown/top control 1.0 0.4 Opponent takedown attempts 17 113 Takedown defense 100% 80% Share of total ground time in control 100% 64% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.05 0.16
It might be a combination of both. Usman was preparing to face Burns, who did to Woodley what previously only Usman had managed to do. Usman undoubtedly wants to leverage his dominant top game, and against an older, slightly smaller opponent who has been pinned against the cage before, that seems like a favorable strategy.
Fans should expect Masvidal to have his best chances while standing; he has succeeded in striking duels enough to ensure that his highlight reel will echo in eternity. But many of those knockouts came against fighters not necessarily at their peaks or in a full weight class smaller. He gets a slight edge in terms of technical striking compared to Usman, but Masvidal's knockdown rate is on par with the champ's, and Masvidal has taken far more damage between the two. Plus, Usman averages a more aggressive pace.
Masvidal likely wants a striking duel, but that by no means guarantees he'll get the better of one. Meanwhile, should Usman feel pressure at any point on the feet -- he fully capable of keeping the fight against the cage or on the mat -- he can easily rack up points on the cards.
E+ recommends: Money line play on Usman.
Other plays on the fight: The main event is the title fight least expected to go the distance. But the durability of both fighters, as well as the presumed respect of each other's threats, could lead to a feeling out process and a conservative game plan early.
E+ recommends: Use the over 1.5 rounds in parlays or the money line over 2.5 rounds. If Usman got any coaching whatsoever this week, it was to not take risks or drop for a takedown against a flying knee.
Featherweight championship: Champ Alexander Volkanovski (-220) vs. No. 1 Max Holloway (+185)
Tale Of The TapeOn paper, we can easily see why this is a fun pairing to run back a second time. These two average the highest combined standup striking pace of any of the three title pairings, and both deliver their aggressive strikes with abnormally high precision. In their first fight, Volkanovski implemented leg kicks early and often but technically was outstruck in the final two rounds.
MAX HOLLOWAY ALEX VOLKANOVSKI Last fight weight class Featherweight Featherweight Age 28 31 Height 71 66 Reach 70 71 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 310 111 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 8:0 4:1 Distance knockdown rate 0.8% 2.7% Head jab accuracy 32% 40% Head power accuracy 41% 41% Total standup strike ratio 1.2 1.1 Striking defense Total head strike defense 71% 68% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.02 0.51 Takedown accuracy 83% 35% Advances per takedown/top control 3.6 0.8 Opponent takedown attempts 134 22 Takedown defense 85% 73% Share of total ground time in control 42% 84% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.32 0.14
However, the rematch of last year's upset of the longtime featherweight champ is occurring under strange circumstances. Holloway revealed that he did not train with any partners, despite having lost to Volkanovski in a predominantly standup affair. There are real concerns about Holloway's ability to control early exchanges against an opponent who now knows that Holloway is not invincible.
The numbers lean Volkanovski -- but only slightly. Holloway has taken enormous amounts of damage in his career, well beyond his years. But he's still young. He showed in his first fight that he can rally and put on his usual high pace despite being hurt. However, it's difficult to imagine that he can do better in a rematch under current circumstances.
E+ recommends: Slight lean on Volkanovski but not at current prices. Likely a pass unless prices tighten up or diverge significantly to make an upset by decision prop possible.
Bantamweight championship: No. 3 Petr Yan (-240) vs. No. 6 Jose Aldo (+200)
Tale Of The TapeThe first title fight of the night will determine the new bantamweight champion after Henry Cejudo's abdication by retirement. Former and longtime featherweight champion Aldo recently dropped to bantamweight but lost his division debut. The matchup is a strange one, given the higher-ranked fighters available in the division, but nonetheless, Yan will return from his knockout of Urijah Faber to take on Faber's old rival, Aldo.
PETR YAN JOSE ALDO Last fight weight class Bantamweight Bantamweight Age 27 33 Height 67.5 67 Reach 67 70 Stance Switch Orthodox Analyzed minutes 69 304 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 7:1 9:2 Distance knockdown rate 3.3% 2.3% Head jab accuracy 28% 32% Head power accuracy 35% 34% Total standup strike ratio 1.1 0.9 Striking defense Total head strike defense 76% 76% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 99% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.24 0.08 Takedown accuracy 53% 65% Advances per takedown/top control 0.4 1.5 Opponent takedown attempts 24 96 Takedown defense 88% 92% Share of total ground time in control 67% 72% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.09 0.14
Changing weight classes always complicates things. On one hand, Aldo earned comparable striking stats against larger and more formidable opponents than Yan has faced. On the other hand, in a five-round fight, endurance was never Aldo's strength, and that could be further at risk after he had to drop additional weight.
Assuming the numbers aren't skewed by Aldo's drop in weight, Yan is capable of putting on a greater pace and changing levels. If Aldo can't pull out one of his old tricks early in an away-game setting, it could be a long night for him.
E+ recommends: Money line lean on Yan.
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Originally Posted by TheMetsSuck
