They also vote much more, old people vote at far higher rates than younger people.Originally Posted by Judge Crater
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10-27-20 12:02 AM #1681
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10-27-20 12:26 AM #1682
Trump hit 3 cities in Pa today. If he wins Pa, he wins the election.
Meanwhile in Philly(where most of the Biden votes come from) they just recorded their 400th murder today. That is the most murders in the city since 2006. And with over 2 months to go, they'll more than likely break even more records this year.
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10-27-20 12:34 AM #1683
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10-27-20 12:53 AM #1684
Trump wins this election easy. Hunter will take care of his daddy after this election. Smoke crack with his pops and change his depends. Maybe both will look at child porn on his laptop. Think his Wife Jill will go bang some younger dudes and divorce Joe.
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10-27-20 01:19 AM #1685
poll conducted by InsiderAdvantage for the Center for American Greatness of 400 likely voters in Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump now leading in the state. The poll was conducted the evening of October 25 by both IVR and live cell phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent and is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The results:
Donald Trump: 48.4%
Joe Biden: 45.5 %
Jo Jorgensen: 3 %
Undecided: 3 %
Within margin of error.
All three of the states Trump won before are too close to call; WI, MI and PA. I think he wins WI easily.
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10-27-20 01:35 AM #1686
that oil comment cost biden penn. the leading search on google in penn is can i change my vote.
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10-27-20 02:20 AM #1687
Maybe the worst pollster there is. Originally Posted by RoyBacon
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10-27-20 02:21 AM #1688
The early vote is so overwhelming dem. Originally Posted by Kermit
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10-27-20 06:16 AM #1689
How many did you go to? Asking for a friend so as to stay away from you for 14 days....... Originally Posted by Kermit
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10-27-20 07:18 AM #1690
That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right? Originally Posted by vitterd
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10-27-20 07:18 AM #1691
LMAO tards and their covid. Dude it ain't The Plague. I know an overweight 74 year old who got over it in a couple of days. Originally Posted by rkelly110
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10-27-20 07:23 AM #1692
Your wife probably has good genes. Death sentence for some. Originally Posted by RoyBacon
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10-27-20 07:24 AM #1693
He had one here just 2 weeks ago. I didn't go. I'm not into camping out all day for things like that. Originally Posted by rkelly110
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10-27-20 08:29 AM #1694
Where did you get +400 three weeks ago? Originally Posted by lakerboy
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10-27-20 08:58 AM #1695
This could not be more false Originally Posted by lakerboy
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10-27-20 09:10 AM #1696
In his dreams. Trump was actually about even with Biden in PA in September. Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz
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10-27-20 09:14 AM #1697
I have lost 5 family members dip shit. Originally Posted by RoyBacon
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10-27-20 09:19 AM #1698
Your first mistake was believing polls. Data suggests Biden not doing particularly well in any swing state (and take away the fictitious polls, can you really be surprised?) Originally Posted by pavyracer
Data shows Trump meanwhile winning FL & AZ & NC ... and in MI it looks like he's flipping Oakland County, 2nd biggest in the state. GOP turnout there off the charts, just ask Michael Moore.
Time for that last minute push, Joe!
Joe? Where's Joe?
Anyone seen Hunter?
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10-27-20 09:22 AM #1699
I'm throwing the BS flag on that one. Link me to their orbits. Probably just told you they died so they get the fvvk away from your weird bean-vomit smelling azz. Just one theory. Originally Posted by chico2663
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10-27-20 09:27 AM #1700
This is completely false. I mean, absolutely the opposite is happening. Originally Posted by ByeShea
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10-27-20 09:27 AM #1701
Please post the data. Originally Posted by ByeShea
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10-27-20 09:31 AM #1702
Trump gains overnight
Betfair
Biden -200
Trump +198
Trump was at +192 earlier, seems to be grinding back up.
I think this maybe was caused by the Philadelphia riots overnight. I didn't see anything else in the news to cause a ten cent drop.
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10-27-20 09:32 AM #1703
He has none. It’s all nonsense and lies. ByeShea follows some guy on twitter named Larry and listens to him. The guy has been wrong about every race he’s ever predicted. Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz
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10-27-20 09:41 AM #1704
He was +400 in Vegas on oct 4 Originally Posted by pavyracer
These were odds on oct 16
You think he was even then went to+250? Lol paver.
He is +160 today
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10-27-20 09:44 AM #1705
Action network? Wtf?
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10-27-20 09:46 AM #1706
From Dave Wasserman of non-partisan Cook Political Report's Twitter feed today
Let's see...what should we put more faith in?
1) A molehill of state-level online polls from attention-seeking, off-brand pollsters? Or...
2) A mountain of district-level polls from established pollsters tasked w/ helping their parties make smart resource allocation decisions
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10-27-20 09:49 AM #1707
Bottom line odds have dropped on trump Originally Posted by vitterd
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10-27-20 09:50 AM #1708
Originally Posted by Judge Crater
Like 2016? Yea, let's be dumb azzes and make the same mistake twice. LOL
I agree Trump is losing and I obviously agree with the "markets". But everyone including the markets KNOW there is a Trump under count to factor in. The only question is how much is it?
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10-27-20 09:50 AM #1709
Bet trump then. Let me know how that works out. I posted the early pa voting numbers last night. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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10-27-20 09:53 AM #1710
I mean. Just take a look Originally Posted by vitterd
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10-27-20 09:53 AM #1711
I took it last week+190. I don't need to let you know how it works out. You will find out soon. Originally Posted by vitterd
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10-27-20 09:54 AM #1712
I already know but I can’t wait to see all the disappearing acts next week. Originally Posted by lakerboy
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10-27-20 09:56 AM #1713
absolutely correct, the big electoral sites ( 538, Larry Sabato, Cook Report, etc.) all put odds of Trump much longer than the betting markets. I am not sure there is value for trump in the betting markets as they are already discounted.
Originally Posted by RoyBacon
Last edited by Judge Crater; 10-27-20 at 10:00 AM.
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10-27-20 10:28 AM #1714
The most damning stats I've seen is the already voted polls. Trump is down 8ish points in the midwest. Even if you take out the dems over sample and massage the MOE you come up with too big of a hill to take on election day. Originally Posted by Judge Crater
Close? Yes. Value? As a famous SBR gambler once said; there ain't much value in losing.
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10-27-20 10:33 AM #1715
@NateSilver538
17hIf the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).
@NateSilver538Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?)
Originally Posted by RoyBacon
Originally Posted by RoyBacon
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