1. #1716
    jt315
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    Quote Originally Posted by CWD View Post
    This is what no doubt had his handler’s ripping the retard from his basement .

  2. #1717
    pavyracer
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    • Sep. 5: Trump’s momentum has been staunched. His odds went from -117 to -116. Biden improved from -106 to -109.

    • Aug. 31: Trump’s uptick continued and he is now favored over Biden (-117 to -106, on average)

    • Aug. 28: The candidates are now almost dead-even. Biden is -115 on average. Trump is -110.
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  3. #1718
    Judge Crater
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    Keep going

  4. #1719
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    That's why the odds to win pa were+400 three weeks ago and are now+160 right?
    In post #1 on June 26th Biden was -265 in PA and now he's -200. So yeah, it's changed but I don't remember seeing anything as dramatic as your post above. Maybe I missed it when this happened. But as far I could tell, PA has remained fairly steady for the last 4 months or so.

  5. #1720
    RoyBacon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Crater View Post
    @NateSilver538
    17hIf the polls aren't tightening since the debate—and with 62 million people having voted—we're sort of getting to the point where the only way Trump can win is with a major polling error, bigger than in 2016 (or if the election is stolen somehow).


    @NateSilver538
    Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?)










    Maybe those are his numbers if the game was played today. This is super complex and that actual MOE is realistically 5%+/-.

    That takes you from drawing for an inside straight to hitting any pair on the river.

    If you stumble back on 2016 the same people said the exact same thing looking at almost the exact same data. Kind of spooky.

  6. #1721
    jt315
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    Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

    48.4%
    @realDonaldTrump


    47.6%
    @JoeBiden


    2.2%
    @Jorgensen4POTUS


    0.7% Other

    1.0% Und. See Report:
    https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/




  7. #1722
    RudyRuetigger
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    In Florida, 1,508,165 voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2016 have already voted in the 2020 general election.Registered Dems have an 11.7% advantage among these surge voters, almost triple their 4.3% lead with those early voters who did vote in '16.
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  8. #1723
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  9. #1724
    Mike Huntertz
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    In post #1 on June 26th Biden was -265 in PA and now he's -200. So yeah, it's changed but I don't remember seeing anything as dramatic as your post above. Maybe I missed it when this happened. But as far I could tell, PA has remained fairly steady for the last 4 months or so.
    I've been watching 538 for a while and PA has always been 2-7% Biden. If I saw(which I didn't) +400 I would have jumped on Trump.
    Not saying some obscure book didn't put it out, but not 5D, Pinnacle, BetChris.
    That would be a live dog of which I would have already hedged.

  10. #1725
    Judge Crater
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    This is the pollster who Robocalls only land lines, they also ask the responders how their neighbors are voting.

    To their credit, they alone hit in Michigan and PA in 2016 ( also predicted Trump would win the popular vote )
    In the 2018 midterms, they got destroyed in almost all their predictions. They predicted the Republican's would pick up house seats (they lost 41 seats)

    The poll below has Trump winning 49.9% of the 18-24 vote.


    Quote Originally Posted by jt315 View Post
    Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

    48.4%
    @realDonaldTrump


    47.6%
    @JoeBiden


    2.2%
    @Jorgensen4POTUS


    0.7% Other

    1.0% Und. See Report:
    https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/



    Last edited by Judge Crater; 10-27-20 at 11:35 AM.

  11. #1726
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by jt315 View Post
    Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election#BattlegroundState#PApoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows undecided shrinking and a narrow Trump lead for the first time:

    48.4%
    @realDonaldTrump


    47.6%
    @JoeBiden


    2.2%
    @Jorgensen4POTUS


    0.7% Other

    1.0% Und. See Report:
    https://thetrafalgargroup.org/news/pa-pres-102520/



    Lmao

  12. #1727
    jt315
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Lmao

    Feel free to post those polls showing Biden with double PA leads .

    Guess who had to get ripped from his basement and had to defend himself after his disastrous debate on Thursday ?

    But by all means . Please take the air out of the ball and try to run out the clock.

  13. #1728
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by jt315 View Post
    Feel free to post those polls showing Biden with double PA leads .

    Guess who had to get ripped from his basement and had to defend himself after his disastrous debate on Thursday ?

    But by all means . Please take the air out of the ball and try to run out the clock.
    You find the one fake poll that has trump up one point. Perhaps that cuck with the bow tie might wanna look at the numbers and stop making shit up. He will disappear just like you after Tuesday. The beating is underway.

    Leave and never come back!!

  14. #1729
    jt315
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    You find the one fake poll that has trump up one point. Perhaps that cuck with the bow tie might wanna look at the numbers and stop making shit up. He will disappear just like you after Tuesday. The beating is underway.

    Leave and never come back!!
    You don’t have any balls to post your Biden huge PA lead polls pee squatter .

    The beast told Joe yesterday you better get your ass out of this basement and to Pa and start ‘splaining yo self !

  15. #1730
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by jt315 View Post
    You don’t have any balls to post your Biden huge PA lead polls pee squatter .

    The beast told Joe yesterday you better get your ass out of this basement and to Pa and start ‘splaining yo self !
    I posted the early numbers. It’s a beating. It’s a massive beating!! I posted the early voting numbers. They are bigger than the polls!

  16. #1731
    burdman
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    The complete lack of self awareness from the Trump cult is astonishing.

    Might be the smartest person on SBR. A bunch of racist trumpers that think they know everything couldn’t be more wrong over and over

  17. #1732
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    Leave and never come back!!
    i can actually picture you saying that


    i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







    what a fukkin soyboy
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  18. #1733
    burdman
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    i can actually picture you saying that


    i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







    what a fukkin soyboy
    Nobody is laughing but you

  19. #1734
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    i can actually picture you saying that


    i bet you stomped your foot and crossed your arms too







    what a fukkin soyboy
    You’re a drunk fool and Id pound your empty melon.

  20. #1735
    ByeShea
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    Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

    Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.




  21. #1736
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    You’re a drunk fool and Id pound your empty melon.
    Posts: 40,093



    show me one useful one
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  22. #1737
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

    Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.



    This is why you are always wrong. 2016 was a referendum on Hillary, 2020 is a referendum on trump. This is nothing like 2016. Biden lead has been stable. He hits 50 percent in a number of battleground, trump doesn’t hit 50 in any. You have no idea what you’re in for next week.

  23. #1738
    vitterd
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Posts: 40,093



    show me one useful one
    The one you just quoted.

  24. #1739
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by vitterd View Post
    The one you just quoted.
    you democrats are so fukkin clueless


    i feel bad for you


    i bet you are 60 year old hippy, 140lb soaking wet with no guns


    yet want to defund the police


    best of luck bro


    im not going to lie, a part of me wants biden to win just to see you guys get absolutely fukked over
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  25. #1740
    KVB
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    LMAO, keep watching those lines fellas.

    A lot of betting with your heart and political opinions in here. That’s like being a sports fan and trying to meaningfully gamble on your team.

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  26. #1741
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by KVB View Post
    LMAO, keep watching those lines fellas.

    A lot of betting with your heart and political opinions in here. That’s like being a sports fan and trying to meaningfully gamble on your team.

    Lines dont matter


    why?


    Because they dont allow state parlays

    this is a low level prop
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  27. #1742
    Judge Crater
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    “Political malpractice”: Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz calls the Donald Trump re-election effort the "worst campaign I’ve ever seen."


    If you can post something from someone not being paid by the GOP about Trump being ahead or tied, that's information we could use.

    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

    Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.




  28. #1743
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quit quoting dumbasses...here was Frank Luntz on election night 2016:


    In case I wasn't clear enough from my previous tweets:Hillary Clinton will be the next President of the United States. #ElectionNight





    6:43 PM · Nov 8, 2016 from Manhattan, NY·Twitter for iPhone


    Frank Luntz



    @FrankLuntz

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  29. #1744
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by ByeShea View Post
    Biggest difference between 2016 and today is that Hillary, while her rallies were sparsely attended and few and far between, wasn't confined to her basement most of the last month of the election.

    Somehow it's different now.... riiiiiighhhhtt.



    Look at the voter turnout prices from BetOnline below.

    Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

    01:00 PM

    Over 149.5 million voters
    -225

    Under 149.5 million voters
    +160




    Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

    01:00 PM

    Over 60.5 %
    -150

    Under 60.5 %
    +110





    Does that look the same or different than 2016?

    Here's a link for you to look it up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_...tial_elections

    Scroll down to "Turnout Statistics" in the link above. Do you see a difference between 2020 and 2016?

  30. #1745
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    Look at the voter turnout prices from BetOnline below.

    Voter Turnout in the U.S Presidential Election

    01:00 PM

    Over 149.5 million voters
    -225

    Under 149.5 million voters
    +160




    Voter Turnout in the U.S. Presidential Election

    01:00 PM

    Over 60.5 %
    -150

    Under 60.5 %
    +110





    Does that look the same or different than 2016?

    Here's a link for you to look it up.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_...tial_elections

    Scroll down to "Turnout Statistics" in the link above. Do you see a difference between 2020 and 2016?
    Neither of those matter for the results Galt


    Democrat parts of Florida and Arizona are not going well with turnout for dems
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  31. #1746
    Judge Crater
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    I do not think Biden or the Democrats is counting on winning Florida, hence the lack of campaigning there.

    Follow the money. Where are the campaigns spending resources?

  32. #1747
    JohnGalt2341
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    Quote Originally Posted by RudyRuetigger View Post
    Neither of those matter for the results Galt


    Democrat parts of Florida and Arizona are not going well with turnout for dems
    First off, I want to congratulate you for leaving a post in this thread without insulting someone. I know how hard it is for you to not act like a child in every single one of your posts. Bravo!

    My feeling is, the voter turnout will be MUCH higher than 2016. And this is going to hurt Trump, not help him.

    I guess we'll see in the days and weeks to come.

  33. #1748
    DwightShrute
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnGalt2341 View Post
    First off, I want to congratulate you for leaving a post in this thread without insulting someone. I know how hard it is for you to not act like a child in every single one of your posts. Bravo!

    My feeling is, the voter turnout will be MUCH higher than 2016. And this is going to hurt Trump, not help him.

    I guess we'll see in the days and weeks to come.
    what makes you think that?

  34. #1749
    burdman
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    Quote Originally Posted by Judge Crater View Post
    I do not think Biden or the Democrats is counting on winning Florida, hence the lack of campaigning there.

    Follow the money. Where are the campaigns spending resources?
    Obama was just in Florida with a massive rally just for icing on the cake.

    if by some miracle trump wins, people are gonna wish he wouldn’t starting that night

  35. #1750
    RudyRuetigger
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    Quote Originally Posted by burdman View Post
    Obama was just in Florida with a massive rally just for icing on the cake.

    if by some miracle trump wins, people are gonna wish he wouldn’t starting that night
    yea, bro


    MASSIVE


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