NBA draft lottery: Potential picks and odds for every team 🏀
NBA draft lottery: Potential picks and odds for every team
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What's at stake for every team in the 2020 NBA draft lottery? What should each team do if it jumps into the top four? And what if it stays put?
Our NBA draft experts break down the likely picks, odds and questions for every franchise pinning its hopes on pingpong balls, including the favorites for Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball and James Wiseman.
The lottery odds for the bottom eight teams are already locked in, and the final playoff picture after the seeding games in Florida will help determine the final slots. Each team that doesn't make the postseason will be slotted into the lottery based on its March 11 record.
Note: This is the first in a series of pieces this week looking ahead to the 2020 NBA draft (Oct. 16) and lottery (Aug. 25). Golden State Warriors | Average pick: 3.7
No. 1 pick odds: 14.0% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Anthony Edwards
No. 4: James Wiseman
Most likely pick: James Wiseman | C
In a draft lacking surefire star power at the top, the Warriors could have a tough decision on draft night if they land at No. 1.
Should they move back and draft a more ready-made contributor like Deni Avdija, Isaac Okoro, Onyeka Okongwu, Tyrese Haliburton or Obi Toppin? Do they zero in on upside prospects LaMelo Ball, Anthony Edwards and James Wiseman?
I'd swing on Ball's incredible instincts and vision as a 6-foot-7 lead guard and pair him with elite shotmakers Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, an athletic wing in Andrew Wiggins, and an all-league small-ball defender in Draymond Green.
They should also consider Avdija given his versatility, experience, modern fit and basketball instincts. A Curry-Thompson-Wiggins-Avdija-Green small-ball lineup could be one of the most dynamic and versatile in the NBA.
But I could see the Warriors opting for Wiseman. The 7-1 physical marvel could reach his sky-high potential as a DeAndre Jordan-style finisher and defensive anchor with offensive upside should he land in an environment such as Golden State's. -- Schmitz Cleveland Cavaliers | Average pick: 3.9
No. 1 pick odds: 14.0% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Isaac Okoro
No. 4: James Wiseman
Most likely pick: Onyeka Okongwu | F
After drafting guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland in back-to-back years (as well as the promising Kevin Porter Jr. last year), Cleveland would probably be less interested than other teams in ball-dominant guards LaMelo Ball and Anthony Edwards.
That might lead the Cavs in the direction of Okongwu or Okoro, depending on where their pick falls. Neither player needs plays called for him to make his presence felt, and either should complement Sexton and Garland.
And with Cleveland's hole on the depth chart at forward, Avdija is a compelling option, thanks to his defensive versatility and basketball instincts. -- Givony Minnesota Timberwolves | Average Pick: 4.1
No. 1 pick odds: 14.0% | Top-three pick odds: 40.1% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Anthony Edwards | G
With Karl-Anthony Towns and D'Angelo Russell locked in, president of basketball operations Gersson Rosas is in search of a third star to add to the skilled pair of 24-year-olds. This pick could come down to Ball or Edwards.
But a defensive trio of Ball, Russell and Towns would be one of the league's most vulnerable. On top of that, Russell is one of the league's only non-superstars to post a usage rate over 30 in three consecutive seasons -- he and Ball both need volume and freedom to be at their best.
That opens the door for Edwards -- a gifted 6-5, 225-pound scorer who could do a lot of damage getting downhill with the space Towns and Russell provide. Like Ball, he needs to dramatically improve his defensive intensity, but he has the tools to be an asset on that end, and he'd give the Timberwolves an athletic boost they're otherwise lacking.
Avdija's versatility would also make a lot of sense here. -- Schmitz
No. 1 pick odds: 12.5% | Top-three pick odds: 36.6% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Isaac Okoro
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 4: James Wiseman
Most likely pick: Isaac Okoro | F
With several building blocks in place, the Hawks probably will look to add a player who can contribute immediately and accelerate the franchise's move back to respectability.
For the NBA's third-worst defensive team, that end of the floor has to be a major priority, which might lead the Hawks to look at Okongwu and Okoro, probably the two best defenders in the draft.
Given the Hawks have yet to see Clint Capela -- whom they acquired at the trade deadline -- play a game for them, Okoro's versatility on the wing is probably a better fit, especially his ability to defend point guards and help the Hawks hide Trae Young. -- Givony Detroit Pistons | Average pick: 5.0
No. 1 pick odds: 10.5% | Top-three pick odds: 31.6% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 4: Tyrese Haliburton
Most likely pick: LaMelo Ball | G
While the Pistons have hit singles over the years with value adds Bruce Brown, Christian Wood and Sekou Doumbouya, Detroit is in dire need of a future star, especially in the backcourt.
The fifth pick isn't typically where you find franchise changers. But in this case, it's not impossible that Ball falls to the Pistons, considering the teams expected to draft ahead of Detroit. The Pistons rank 21st in offense and 28th in pace this season, making Ball an ideal choice, given he excels in transition and can generate offense from virtually anywhere on the floor.
As it happens, Ball's manager, Jermaine Jackson, is a Detroit native, played his college basketball and was an assistant coach at Detroit Mercy and had a short stint with the Pistons.
I'd expect Ed Stefanski and recently hired GM Troy Weaver to give do-it-all Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton a long look here as well. -- Schmitz New York Knicks | Average pick: 5.5
No. 1 pick odds: 9.0% | Top-three pick odds: 27.6% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Deni Avdija | F
In the midst of a rebuilding process now headed by new management, the Knicks have more needs than are likely to be addressed with a single draft pick.
One school of thought would be to pick the player with the most star power, which would lead them in the direction of Ball or Edwards. Neither player is a great fit, but a franchise that hasn't made the playoffs in seven years can't afford to pass on talent in favor of fit.
But if Knicks do want a player who complements some of the promising young talent assembled by the previous regime -- namely RJ Barrett, Kevin Knox II and Mitchell Robinson -- the likes of Avdija, Okoro, and to a lesser extent Okongwu, could make plenty of sense. Okoro's defensive versatility, selfless style of play and considerable upside probably would make him fit well with Barrett in a supersized wing duo. -- Givony Chicago Bulls | Average pick: 6.2
No. 1 pick odds: 7.5% | Top-three pick odds: 23.4% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Tyrese Haliburton
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Tyrese Haliburton | G
A revamped Bulls front office, led by vice president of basketball operations Artūras Karnišovas, is in dire need of a pass-first guard to play next to electric scorers Coby White and Zach LaVine, and a wing who can mesh with bigs Wendell Carter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen.
Karnišovas, who helped draft Nikola Jokic in Denver, could fill both needs in one player by selecting Serbian-Israeli point forward Avdija. The 19-year-old Maccabi Tel Aviv product has the basketball instincts and court vision to operate as a big guard for stretches while also possessing the size and versatility at 6-9 to play either forward spot when off the ball.
If Avdija is off the board, Chicago could consider a guard like Tyrese Haliburton or a proven big man like Obi Toppin, especially given the inconsistency from both Carter and Markkanen. -- Schmitz Charlotte Hornets | Average pick: 7.0
No. 1 pick odds: 6.0% | Top-three pick odds: 19.0% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Onyeka Okongwu
Most likely pick: Obi Toppin | F
The Hornets have been avoiding a full-blown rebuild for years in hopes of cobbling together a playoff team, which they haven't had since 2016. The results are glaring holes on the roster and very little star power.
Swinging for the fences to bring in Ball or Edwards would make sense if Charlotte has the opportunity, and this has to be considered the floor for a high-ceiling prospect like Wiseman.
Short of that, drafting a versatile wing in Avdija, putting the ball in his hands and empowering him to reach his full potential as a big playmaker could end up being a wise move long term. -- Givony Washington Wizards | Average pick: 8.0
No. 1 pick odds: 4.5% | Top-three pick odds: 14.5% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 4: James Wiseman
Most likely pick: Precious Achiuwa | F
Ranking dead last in defensive rating, the Wizards need a rim protector to slot next to scoring forward Rui Hachimura. Landing a shot-blocker such as Okongwu would be a dream for the Wizards should they end up in the top three.
Given the slim odds of jumping up to grab either Okongwu or Wiseman, however, GM Tommy Sheppard and his group probably will have to turn to the draft's next tier of bigs in Dayton's Toppin and Memphis' Precious Achiuwa.
When he's fully engaged and embracing his role, Achiuwa is arguably the draft's most versatile defender, with the ability to check point guards on switches and protect the rim as a small-ball 5. He should also be able to pierce defenses as a Montrezl Harrell-like roller and driver on the other end.
If the Wizards don't focus on defense, Toppin could energize the team's fan base with his high-flying dunks and deep 3s, making him an excellent fit next to John Wall and Bradley Beal. -- Schmitz
Note: This is Washington's slot if the Wizards don't make the postseason. If they do make it in, they will pick outside the lottery. Phoenix Suns | Average pick: 9.2
No. 1 pick odds: 3.0% | Top-three pick odds: 9.9% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Obi Toppin
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Killian Hayes | G
The Suns have exceeded expectations in a season highlighted by the improvement of cornerstones Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton, and strong contributions from several role players.
While Ricky Rubio has proved to be a strong complement to Booker, he's about to turn 30. The Suns might look at 6-5 pick-and-roll guard Killian Hayes. A versatile guard like Haliburton, who can play on or off the ball thanks to his size, strong perimeter shooting and basketball instincts, would also be a great fit. -- Givony
Note: This is Phoenix's likely slot if the Suns don't make the postseason. San Antonio Spurs | Average pick: 10.3
No. 1 pick odds: 2.0% | Top-three pick odds: 6.6% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Patrick Williams | F
DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Rudy Gay are in their 30s and could depart by 2021, so I'd expect the Spurs to take a best player available and build for the future.
With the majority of their young talent in the backcourt in Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Lonnie Walker IV, the Spurs would be wise to take a long look at wings like Devin Vassell, Patrick Williams, Saddiq Bey and Aaron Nesmith. Guards Cole Anthony, RJ Hampton, Tyrese Maxey and Killian Hayes might also generate interest here.
Ultimately, Florida State products Williams (18.8 years old) and Vassell (19.8 years old) might make the most sense in terms of need, youth and the type of character the Spurs tend to want. The physically impressive 6-8 Williams (32% from 3 at FSU) is the perfect pupil for renowned shooting coach Chip Engelland to mold, as he did with Kawhi Leonard. -- Schmitz
Note: This is San Antonio's likely slot if the Spurs don't make the postseason. Sacramento Kings | Average pick: 11.9
No. 1 pick odds: 1.3% | Top-three pick odds: 4.3% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Anthony Edwards
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Tyrese Maxey | G
The Kings can stand to add talent at every position outside of point guard and will be well-positioned to jump on any of the high-upside prospects who fall out of the top 10 due to the uncertainty caused by this year's pre-draft process.
Combo guards who complement De'Aaron Fox, including R.J. Hampton and Maxey, could be especially interesting, but there are real needs in the frontcourt, which a versatile defensive big man like Precious Achiuwa could help shore up. Drafting a deadeye shooting wing like Aaron Nesmith could make sense as well. -- Givony
Note: This is Sacramento's likely slot if the Kings don't make the postseason. New Orleans Pelicans | Average pick: 12.1
No. 1 pick odds: 1.2% | Top-three pick odds: 4.0% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: LaMelo Ball
No. 2: Anthony Edwards
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Saddiq Bey | F
As the Pelicans build around a youthful quartet of Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Jaxson Hayes, they could certainly use a versatile wing who defends, knows how to play, and spaces the floor.
No player in this range fits that description better than Bey, a 21-year-old forward from Villanova who comes from a winning program and aligns with New Orleans' timeline perfectly. At 6-8 with a 7-0 wingspan, Bey has the size to play either forward spot while functioning as a ball-mover, cutter, and spot shooter (career 42% from 3) on offense.
Devin Vassell, Aaron Nesmith, Patrick Williams and Jaden McDaniels could all also draw interest here if David Griffin & Co. are indeed eyeing another wing. Should the Pelicans somehow land in the top three, a Lonzo-LaMelo backcourt, alongside Zion, could make for the most exciting team in the NBA. -- Schmitz
Note: This is New Orleans' likely slot if the Pelicans don't make the postseason. Portland Trail Blazers | Average pick: 13.7
No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Anthony Edwards
No. 2: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 3: Isaac Okoro
No. 4: Deni Avdija
Most likely pick: Aaron Nesmith | G
The Trail Blazers might have reached their ceiling with a clogged salary sheet and not much margin for error as Damian Lillard enters his 30s. At their likely draft position, they can't expect to make a pick that changes their trajectory, but finding a rotation player who can contribute next season is a realistic goal.
Nesmith is a versatile shooter who has the upside to grow into what would be an easy fit on the roster positionally. The same is true of Precious Achiuwa, who can play either big man spot and offers strong switchability to mask the shortcomings on the defensive end of the Portland backcourt. -- Givony
Note: This is Portland's likely slot if the Trail Blazers don't make the postseason. Orlando Magic | Average pick: 13.7
No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7% If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Anthony Edwards
No. 2: LaMelo Ball
No. 3: Deni Avdija
No. 4: Isaac Okoro
Most likely pick: Cole Anthony | G
Although they generally covet length, the Magic have no shortage of young talent at the wing and big spots in Aaron Gordon, Jonathan Isaac, Mo Bamba, Nikola Vucevic and last year's 16th overall pick Chuma Okeke, who sat out this season after tearing his ACL in the 2019 NCAA tournament.
With Evan Fournier holding a $17 million player option, Orlando would benefit from adding another shot creator in the backcourt alongside 6-5 lead guard Markelle Fultz. If available, Tyrese Maxey would be an ideal fit.
If he's off the board, Orlando could look at Hayes, confident scorer Cole Anthony, 6-6 open-court blur R.J. Hampton (if available) or steady 6-5 ASVEL (French league) product and Tony Parker understudy Theo Maledon. -- Schmitz
Note: This is Orlando's likely slot if the Magic don't make the postseason. Brooklyn Nets | Average pick: 13.7
No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7% Trade considerations: The Nets owe their pick to the Timberwolves if it falls outside the lottery. If they land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Onyeka Okongwu
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Isaac Okoro
No. 4: Obi Toppin
Most likely pick: Devin Vassell | G
The Nets will be making a push for the Eastern Conference title next season when Kevin Durant returns to action, and surrounding him with talented role players probably will be a major priority for the front office.
With Joe Harris entering free agency, adding shooting on the wing would provide insurance if Harris' price gets too high for Nets ownership, which could lead the team to look at players like Vassell, Aaron Nesmith and Saddiq Bey. -- Givony
Note: This is Brooklyn's likely slot if the Nets don't make the postseason. Boston Celtics (via Memphis Grizzlies) | Average pick: 13.7
No. 1 pick odds: 0.5% | Top-three pick odds: 1.7% Trade considerations: The Grizzlies owe their pick to the Celtics if it falls outside the top six. If Grizzlies land in the top four, they should pick ...
No. 1: Anthony Edwards
No. 2: Deni Avdija
No. 3: Isaac Okoro
No. 4: Tyrese Haliburton
Most likely pick: R.J. Hampton | G
Assuming this pick goes to the Celtics, Danny Ainge could go a variety of directions.
Despite drafting Grant Williams and Romeo Langford last year, the Celtics could still look to add depth up front and at the off-guard spot, especially with Brad Stevens' willingness to play small.
A floor-spacing, shot-blocking big like Maryland's Jalen Smith could make sense here, whereas combo guards R.J. Hampton and Theo Maledon are worthy of a look. The Celtics could also consider whichever wing falls from the group of Saddiq Bey, Aaron Nesmith, Devin Vassell and Patrick Williams.
Because the Celtics also hold the 26th and 30th picks, Ainge has more freedom to make an upside pick like 7-1 Serbian power forward Aleksej Pokusevski, who handles the ball like a point guard and shoots it like a wing, yet has questions in terms of his NBA readiness and toughness. -- Schmitz
Note: This is Memphis' likely slot if the Grizzlies don't make the postseason.make the postseason.
GTFOOH the Warriors aren't spending a #1 pick on a shot-blocker. This is 2020. They'll take the best prospect. Probably trade the pick before the draft.
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NBA draft lottery: Potential picks and odds for every team 🏀
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