Agreed, I expect the race to tighten before election day, but there's a national misconception that since '16 was a fluid, back and forth election, therefore '20 has been and will continue to be, too. But the data refutes this. Compare these two pages:
Today, Biden's RCP lead is + 9.5
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
Exactly 4 years ago today Hillary's lead was + 5.8.
http://web.archive.org/web/201606211...nton-5491.html
To see the misconception, scroll below the list of polls on both pages to the graph that tracks each race back 1 year from today.
In '16 Trump was constantly catching Hillary in the polls, tying or nearly tying her 7 different times during the year. With a race that fluid, if election day happens to fall during one of Trump's spikes then either candidate could win and that's what happened.
Compare that to the Trump / Biden graph covering the same time period this year: Trump has never once come close to Biden. People's opinions of Trump this time around are much more solidified than they were 4 years ago which has robbed this race of its fluidity. This time around there's no Trump spikes when he almost ties.
So here's the question: since Biden's lead has remained constant through an economic boom and an economic crash and a time with no pandemic and a time with a huge pandemic, then why should we believe ANYTHING is going to change that lead?
I mean, is a debate win really more race changing than the corona pandemic, yes or no, or 44 million new unemployed? History suggests debate wins are blips that vanish fairly quickly. Obama got his ass kicked in the first debate by Romney and Reagan got his ass kicked in his first debate with Carter, but neither made any difference a week after they were over.