[Hman]

Best bets for UFC Fight Night: Jessica Eye vs. Cynthia Calvillo

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


The UFC remains in Las Vegas for the remainder of June, which means that because of travel restrictions, the competition will continue to draw from its roster of fighters already in the U.S. We're starting to see rapid rebookings as a result of the lack of talent available. Both Charles Rosa and Ray Borg are bouncing back from losses just last month to compete again this week. Interestingly, both are underdogs. These rebookings are likely to happen again over the coming weeks, so pay attention to the effect of the short layoff this week before it becomes a larger pattern.


This fight card is also notable for the low average weight of the fighters. Only three of 11 matchups will take place over 145 pounds, and one of those is only because Rosa and Kevin Aguilar are moving up to lightweight from featherweight. Despite seeing the majority of fights the past two weeks in the small UFC cage end inside the distance, this throwback lineup to the WEC might drag down the finishing average.



Prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+, and the main card starts at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN/ESPN+.


Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

---

Women's flyweight main event: No. 1 Jessica Eye (-125) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (+115)


Tale Of The Tape

	CYNTHIA CALVILLO	JESSICA EYE
Last fight weight class	Strawweight	Flyweight
Age	32	33
Height	64	66
Reach	65	66
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Analyzed minutes	82	162
Standup striking offense
Total knockdown ratio (scored:received)	0:0	0:2
Distance knockdown rate	0.0%	0.0%
Head jab accuracy	15%	24%
Head power accuracy	33%	29%
Total standup strike ratio	0.9	1.3
Striking defense
Total head strike defense	77%	74%
Distance knockdown defense ("Chin")	100%	99%
Wrestling and grappling
TD attempts per min standing/clinch	0.37	0.09
Takedown accuracy	43%	45%
Advances per takedown/top control	1.9	1.6
Opponent takedown attempts	13	32
Takedown defense	69%	59%
Share of total ground time in control	94%	26%
Submission attempts per trip to ground	0.64	0.39

When odds were first released, Calvillo was the mild betting favorite. But a steady backing of Eye has flipped the odds. (Don't be surprised to see them close to even.)


Eye is currently the No. 1 contender in the women's flyweight division, having moved down after being edged by a series of contenders at bantamweight. Meanwhile, Calvillo is moving up from strawweight, where she was ranked 10th. This flavor of MMA math doesn't always predict outcomes, but it does confirm that Eye is accustomed to facing larger opponents than Calvillo, and it's hard to compare their performance numbers directly without that in mind.


On paper, the striking matching is close. Eye is the busier striker, and Calvillo has shown better power accuracy and slightly better defense. On the ground, the differences are more glaring. Calvillo has spent much more grappling time in control of opponents and has used submissions more once on the mat. However, given the potential size and strength advantages for Eye, this imbalance might be washed away.


Ultimately, this matchup looks close, and we'd be tempted to lean Calvillo as an underdog. But the added unknowns from the weight class shift make it a pass. The odds are unlikely to diverge enough to see value on either side.


E+ recommends: Pass.

---

Other fight card values

When Marvin Vettori (-200) was booked to face Karl Roberson (+175) when the UFC returned from the pandemic layoff, we recommended Vettori. That fight was canceled when Roberson faced complications due to his weight cut after also missing his number on the scale. Video of Vettori's angry reaction to the cancellation fueled interest in seeing the bout rebooked, and now we should see Vettori highly motivated in a spot where we already liked him.


E+ recommends: Money line play on Vettori.


As a potential upset, consider Rosa (+150). Yes, he took a lopsided loss last month to grappling ace Bryce Mitchell, but Rosa also survived 15 minutes in some very bad spots. He's clearly tough as nails, and his opponent this week is unlikely to take the fight to the ground. If it stays standing against Aguilar (-170), Rosa could be the busier and more accurate striker.


E+ recommends: Money line lean on Rosa.

[KVB]

Love the spinner weights, they can beat the shit out of each other without a knockout.

I'll take the OVER.

[SamsNCharge99]

one of the worst cards all year