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UFC Fight Night: Best bets for Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira 👊
UFC Fight Night: Best bets for Anthony Smith vs. Glover Teixeira
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
The UFC pulled off its first fight card Saturday with UFC 249 in a socially distanced world, and just days later, we're getting another event. Given the backlog of talent awaiting a matchup, this card is fairly stacked with talent for a Wednesday night card. Why not? After all, MMA is one of the only shows in town at the moment.
The odds are very close up and down the event, with only one betting favorite priced above 2-to-1 (Sijara Eubanks). It's one of the closest full events of betting lines in a long time, making it receptive for bettors who see a clear angle.
Let's take a closer look at the light heavyweight main event between two former title challengers and also look for value further down the card.
Prelims from VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena begin in Jacksonville, Florida, begin at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and the main card begins at 9 p.m.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Light heavyweight main event: No. 3 Anthony Smith (-180) vs. No. 8 Glover Teixeira (+150)
Tale Of The TapeStill ranked in the top 10 of the division, Smith and Teixeira have each risen to level of title contender only to be sent back down in one-sided decision losses to the champion, Jon Jones. But that doesn't mean these guys are in the same phase of their careers.
ANTHONY SMITH GLOVER TEIXEIRA Last fight weight class Light heavyweight Light heavyweight Age 31 40 Height 76 74 Reach 76 76 Stance Orthodox Orthodox Analyzed minutes 144 175 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (scored:received) 5:2 4:4 Distance knockdown rate 1.8% 2.2% Head jab accuracy 34% 39% Head power accuracy 36% 31% Total standup strike ratio 1.0 0.7 Striking defense Total head strike defense 69% 68% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 98% 98% Wrestling and grappling TD attempts per min standing/clinch 0.15 0.50 Takedown accuracy 27% 38% Advances per takedown/top control 1.0 1.9 Opponent takedown attempts 38 65 Takedown defense 50% 60% Share of total ground time in control 23% 67% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.35 0.23
Teixeira, now on the wrong side of 40, has taken much more accumulated damage since his title loss. However, he's also sporting a decent winning streak. In a division known for heavy hitters, Teixeira has absorbed 336 distance head strikes and 661 total head strikes through his UFC career. He ranks sixth all time in the division for the former and 10th all time for the latter. This cumulative damage, combined with his age, is a big risk against a younger fighter who likes to brawl.
Long hailed as an elite grappler at 205 pounds, Teixeira rarely relied on his submission game during his rise through the UFC. Since 2019, however, he's finished two of three opponents by submission. I wondered if the recent submission victories would reveal an intentional shift to a more grappling-centric game plan, but instead found that he hasn't landed more than a single takedown in each of past three wins, which is not out of character for his career as a whole.
If the two stand and trade, they display similar performance metrics. They have the same reach and stance, and both have a high mix of power strikes, rarely using their jabs. Smith is more accurate with his power strikes, but Teixeira has the more accurate jab. They average a very similar pace of output overall while standing, but Teixeira tends to let opponents outwork him. Expect a slow start and lots of feeling out on the feet. Smith will mix in kicks more than Teixeira, and there's no clear evidence that either will try to put the fight on the floor.
We're taking a lean based on Teixeira's age and cumulative damage that could make him more susceptible to a late finish in a fight that might not have very clear round-winners early on.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Smith, but no play unless his price drops.
Other fight card values
Of the many 60-40 betting line matchups on the card, the lone middleweight matchup features Marvin Vettori (-175) versus Karl Roberson (+145). Vettori's last loss came in 2018 against current champion Israel Adesanya, and that fight ended in a split decision. Vettori will be the more active and accurate striker and also has solid takedown defense should Roberson try to escape there.
E+ recommends: ML play on Vettori.
Looking for plus money, Ray Borg (+140) is an interesting play against Ricky Simon (-170). There's risk in that Borg is back at bantamweight after struggling with weight issues, and Borg's price could get better. Both men are wrestlers, but Borg has succeeded with much more wrestling-centric game plans in the past, spending minimal time trading at a distance, where we'd have to favor Simon.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Borg, fight goes the distance for parlays.
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Originally Posted by hankcream
