[Chi_archie]

2806 deaths today.

That should be the highest



For the first wave anyways

[JIBBBY]

I'm happy for your health and also jealous, keep up your routine.
Why do you take your blood pressure??? Isn't that a test for a possible future heath event?
Ergo, you do believe in testing for unseen eventualities. That is a good thing.
Don't throw testing under the bus because it is in the way of how you want things to transpire!
Stay safe!

Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..

[lakerboy]

Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..

High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby

[JIBBBY]

High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby

It could be.. My immune system is stacked LB.. I never get sick.. Bring on Corona.. I probably already had it and beat it already and don't even know it.. I have no fear...

OPEN THE ECONOMY.. Everyone is afraid of this nasty flu that probably will never go away.. Just get it already!!!!

[d2bets]

Death not the measure

New infections are

Only if the positivity rate goes down. Otherwise new infections is just a byproduct of the level of testing.

[gauchojake]

Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

Open the economy!!!!

[JIBBBY]

Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

Open the economy!!!!

Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .

[gauchojake]

Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .

Love ya pal.

Stay safe

[BadNina]

Apparently, NY feels they have peaked. The governor said they do not need the Comfort any longer.

More testing helps with real data since so far they have been basing their projections off of numbers they are just throwing darts at. Which is why they have to keep adjusting them downward each day.

[Chi_archie]

Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..

keep taking care of it!

[Chi_archie]

New IHME update on the model, inceased the US total deaths by August, by about 5,000 more yesterday.

gives projections on when states should be able to safely open.

COVID-19 estimation updates

---

View the COVID-19 projections

COVID-19: What’s New for April 21, 2020

Main updates on IHME COVID-19 predictions since April 17, 2020

MORE DATA, IMPROVED MODELS, BETTER ESTIMATES

Our last release on April 17 involved a number of model updates and innovations, namely substantially improving our death model and including initial predictions on when US states could safely consider easing current social distancing policies while shifting to robust containment strategies (widely available testing, contact tracing and case-based isolation, restrictions on mass gatherings).
With no substantive model changes since April 17, today’s release provides an update with new data for Europe and the US. We also aim to release initial estimates for a number of Latin American countries soon, as well as those for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada. The next update will provide a more in-depth discussion around key findings for Europe and the US.
KEY FINDINGS FROM TODAY’S RELEASE (APRIL 21, 2020)

A focus on when US states could consider easing social distancing if containment measures are in place

Today’s release involves the second iteration of projecting when states may be able to consider easing currently implemented social distancing policies – if and only if – strong containment measures already have been instituted. Based on the latest available data and updated predictions of COVID-19 prevalence, the table below outlines potential timing of these considerations.

Estimates from today’s release suggest that 30 states may fall below the 1 prevalent case per 1,000,000 threshold during May (greens to the light yellow in the map below). As further detailed in the April 17 update, this threshold is considered a conservative estimate of the number of COVID-19 infections that states could reasonably identify via active case detection and contact tracing.


Current trajectories indicate that 12 states may need to wait until at least June 8 or beyond that time before they fall below the 1 prevalent infection per 1,000,000 threshold. These projections could change as new data become available or different policies are implemented.
Results from today’s release indicate these projected “threshold” dates are, on average, later than those released on April 17. Arizona, Florida, Kansas, and North Dakota had the largest shifts to later dates. The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release, as well as predictions of longer (and flatter) epidemic peaks for several states. The table below shows predicted dates for each release, with states listed in alphabetical order.

When might US states safely shift to containment strategies?Prediction of the earliest week to potentially consider easing currently implemented distancing policies if strong containment measures (widely available testing, contact tracing, case-based isolation, and restrictions on mass gatherings) are already in place*
State	Today’s release (April 21)	From the April 17 release	Change since the April 17 release
Alabama	May 17	May 18	-1 day
Alaska	May 6	May 11	-5 days
Arizona	June 23	June 8	+15 days
Arkansas	June 20	June 22	-2 days
California	May 17	May 18	-1 day
Colorado	May 25	May 25	0 days
Connecticut	June 7	June 1	+6 days
Delaware	May 17	May 18	-1 day
District of Columbia	June 5	June 8	-3 days
Florida	June 11	June 1	+10 days
Georgia	June 19	June 15	+4 days
Hawaii	May 6	May 4	+2 days
Idaho	May 15	May 11	+4 days
Illinois	May 19	May 25	-6 days
Indiana	May 20	May 25	-5 days
Iowa	June 26	June 29	-3 days
Kansas	June 19	June 1	+18 days
Kentucky	June 11	June 8	+3 days
Louisiana	May 22	May 18	+4 days
Maine	May 13	May 18	-5 days
Maryland	June 5	June 8	-3 days
Massachusetts	June 7	June 8	-1 day
Michigan	May 19	May 18	+1 day
Minnesota	May 30	May 25	+5 days
Mississippi	May 30	June 1	-2 days
Missouri	June 7	June 1	+6 days
Montana	May 1	May 4	-3 days
Nebraska	June 30	June 29	+1 day
Nevada	May 18	May 18	0 days
New Hampshire	May 16	May 11	+5 days
New Jersey	May 27	June 1	-5 days
New Mexico	May 22	May 18	+4 days
New York	May 27	June 1	-5 days
North Carolina	May 10	May 11	-1 day
North Dakota	July 12	June 29	+13 days
Ohio	May 14	May 18	-4 days
Oklahoma	June 14	June 15	-1 day
Oregon	May 25	May 25	0 days
Pennsylvania	May 27	June 1	-5 days
Rhode Island	June 7	June 8	-1 day
South Carolina	June 5	June 1	+4 days
South Dakota	June 25	June 22	+3 days
Tennessee	May 20	May 25	-5 days
Texas	June 7	June 1	+6 days
Utah	June 21	June 15	+6 days
Vermont	May 8	May 4	+4 days
Virginia	June 5	June 8	-3 days
Washington	May 26	May 18	+8 days
West Virginia	May 7	May 4	+3 days
Wisconsin	May 21	May 18	+3 days
Wyoming	May 23	May 25	-2 days

* This prediction is based on when the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections falls below 1 per 1,000,000. To read more on this approach, please refer to our April 17 estimation update.

[Tanko]

Great info Chi... Thanks

Summary of the number of states easing social distancing rules by week.
May week 1: 4
May week 2: 4
May week 3: 11
May week 4: 9
May week 5: 2
End May total: 30

Then 9 more open 1st week of June.
The states with the biggest chunks of the US economy would be slowly returning mid-May through first part of June.

So if everything holds to projection (a big if), 39 states should start easing implementations of social distancing by June 7th.

Seems like the numbers will move some from this timing but at least we have some ideas of when we will be progressing.

Thanks Chi.