1. #36
    Chi_archie
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    2806 deaths today.

    That should be the highest



    For the first wave anyways

  2. #37
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mike Huntertz View Post
    I'm happy for your health and also jealous, keep up your routine.
    Why do you take your blood pressure??? Isn't that a test for a possible future heath event?
    Ergo, you do believe in testing for unseen eventualities. That is a good thing.
    Don't throw testing under the bus because it is in the way of how you want things to transpire!
    Stay safe!
    Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

    That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

    I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

    Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..
    Last edited by JIBBBY; 04-21-20 at 11:41 PM.

  3. #38
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

    That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

    I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

    Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..
    High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby

  4. #39
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by lakerboy View Post
    High blood pressure is a pre-existing condition. Run to a hospital and die jobby
    It could be.. My immune system is stacked LB.. I never get sick.. Bring on Corona.. I probably already had it and beat it already and don't even know it.. I have no fear...

    OPEN THE ECONOMY.. Everyone is afraid of this nasty flu that probably will never go away.. Just get it already!!!!

  5. #40
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by Brock Landers View Post
    Death not the measure

    New infections are
    Only if the positivity rate goes down. Otherwise new infections is just a byproduct of the level of testing.

  6. #41
    gauchojake
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    Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

    Open the economy!!!!

    $20
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  7. #42
    JIBBBY
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    Quote Originally Posted by gauchojake View Post
    Jobby you're an alcoholic with a bad liver and high blood pressure. How you haven't had a stroke or heart attack is a medical miracle.

    Open the economy!!!!
    Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

    I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .

  8. #43
    gauchojake
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Lol Jakey.. Not an alcoholic just yet as I don't wake up to drinking or drink in the afternoons.. Lol.

    I do drink at night only and the old Liver still functions normally last I checked .
    Love ya pal.

    Stay safe

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  9. #44
    BadNina
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    Apparently, NY feels they have peaked. The governor said they do not need the Comfort any longer.

    More testing helps with real data since so far they have been basing their projections off of numbers they are just throwing darts at. Which is why they have to keep adjusting them downward each day.

  10. #45
    Chi_archie
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    Quote Originally Posted by JIBBBY View Post
    Hereditary, my Family curse is HP... I gotta work on that constantly to keep it down naturally..

    That's my curse in life since I was in my 30's if you can believe that.. HIGH BLOOD PRESSURE..

    I Gotta keep up the cardio, eat raw garlic daily, beets, and I don't stress and low salt intake.. Eat spinach and blueberries daily also. I hover around 130/85 when I'm on my game and in good shape.. Right now I'm 135/85.. Like I said riding a little high this winter.. Was 145/95 and starting feeling like shit a few months ago as I was getting out of shape and drinking to much. Heard ringing in my ears at times and new exactly what it was..

    Wake up call a few months ago for me in the dead of winter.. Got back on that horse instead of going on HP meds and starting working out and eating perfect... I'm Good now again and feel great ..

    keep taking care of it!
    Points Awarded:

    JIBBBY gave Chi_archie 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  11. #46
    Chi_archie
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    New IHME update on the model, inceased the US total deaths by August, by about 5,000 more yesterday.

    gives projections on when states should be able to safely open.

    COVID-19 estimation updates



    COVID-19: What’s New for April 21, 2020

    Main updates on IHME COVID-19 predictions since April 17, 2020

    MORE DATA, IMPROVED MODELS, BETTER ESTIMATES

    Our last release on April 17 involved a number of model updates and innovations, namely substantially improving our death model and including initial predictions on when US states could safely consider easing current social distancing policies while shifting to robust containment strategies (widely available testing, contact tracing and case-based isolation, restrictions on mass gatherings).
    With no substantive model changes since April 17, today’s release provides an update with new data for Europe and the US. We also aim to release initial estimates for a number of Latin American countries soon, as well as those for Puerto Rico and by province in Canada. The next update will provide a more in-depth discussion around key findings for Europe and the US.
    KEY FINDINGS FROM TODAY’S RELEASE (APRIL 21, 2020)

    A focus on when US states could consider easing social distancing if containment measures are in place

    Today’s release involves the second iteration of projecting when states may be able to consider easing currently implemented social distancing policies – if and only if – strong containment measures already have been instituted. Based on the latest available data and updated predictions of COVID-19 prevalence, the table below outlines potential timing of these considerations.

    Estimates from today’s release suggest that 30 states may fall below the 1 prevalent case per 1,000,000 threshold during May (greens to the light yellow in the map below). As further detailed in the April 17 update, this threshold is considered a conservative estimate of the number of COVID-19 infections that states could reasonably identify via active case detection and contact tracing.


    Current trajectories indicate that 12 states may need to wait until at least June 8 or beyond that time before they fall below the 1 prevalent infection per 1,000,000 threshold. These projections could change as new data become available or different policies are implemented.
    Results from today’s release indicate these projected “threshold” dates are, on average, later than those released on April 17. Arizona, Florida, Kansas, and North Dakota had the largest shifts to later dates. The main driver of these later predictions is the increase in reported deaths since the last release, as well as predictions of longer (and flatter) epidemic peaks for several states. The table below shows predicted dates for each release, with states listed in alphabetical order.

    When might US states safely shift to containment strategies?Prediction of the earliest week to potentially consider easing currently implemented distancing policies if strong containment measures (widely available testing, contact tracing, case-based isolation, and restrictions on mass gatherings) are already in place*
    State
    Today’s release (April 21)
    From the April 17 release
    Change since the April 17 release
    Alabama
    May 17
    May 18
    -1 day
    Alaska
    May 6
    May 11
    -5 days
    Arizona
    June 23
    June 8
    +15 days
    Arkansas
    June 20
    June 22
    -2 days
    California
    May 17
    May 18
    -1 day
    Colorado
    May 25
    May 25
    0 days
    Connecticut
    June 7
    June 1
    +6 days
    Delaware
    May 17
    May 18
    -1 day
    District of Columbia
    June 5
    June 8
    -3 days
    Florida
    June 11
    June 1
    +10 days
    Georgia
    June 19
    June 15
    +4 days
    Hawaii
    May 6
    May 4
    +2 days
    Idaho
    May 15
    May 11
    +4 days
    Illinois
    May 19
    May 25
    -6 days
    Indiana
    May 20
    May 25
    -5 days
    Iowa
    June 26
    June 29
    -3 days
    Kansas
    June 19
    June 1
    +18 days
    Kentucky
    June 11
    June 8
    +3 days
    Louisiana
    May 22
    May 18
    +4 days
    Maine
    May 13
    May 18
    -5 days
    Maryland
    June 5
    June 8
    -3 days
    Massachusetts
    June 7
    June 8
    -1 day
    Michigan
    May 19
    May 18
    +1 day
    Minnesota
    May 30
    May 25
    +5 days
    Mississippi
    May 30
    June 1
    -2 days
    Missouri
    June 7
    June 1
    +6 days
    Montana
    May 1
    May 4
    -3 days
    Nebraska
    June 30
    June 29
    +1 day
    Nevada
    May 18
    May 18
    0 days
    New Hampshire
    May 16
    May 11
    +5 days
    New Jersey
    May 27
    June 1
    -5 days
    New Mexico
    May 22
    May 18
    +4 days
    New York
    May 27
    June 1
    -5 days
    North Carolina
    May 10
    May 11
    -1 day
    North Dakota
    July 12
    June 29
    +13 days
    Ohio
    May 14
    May 18
    -4 days
    Oklahoma
    June 14
    June 15
    -1 day
    Oregon
    May 25
    May 25
    0 days
    Pennsylvania
    May 27
    June 1
    -5 days
    Rhode Island
    June 7
    June 8
    -1 day
    South Carolina
    June 5
    June 1
    +4 days
    South Dakota
    June 25
    June 22
    +3 days
    Tennessee
    May 20
    May 25
    -5 days
    Texas
    June 7
    June 1
    +6 days
    Utah
    June 21
    June 15
    +6 days
    Vermont
    May 8
    May 4
    +4 days
    Virginia
    June 5
    June 8
    -3 days
    Washington
    May 26
    May 18
    +8 days
    West Virginia
    May 7
    May 4
    +3 days
    Wisconsin
    May 21
    May 18
    +3 days
    Wyoming
    May 23
    May 25
    -2 days
    * This prediction is based on when the upper bound of the 95% uncertainty interval for all-age COVID-19 prevalent infections falls below 1 per 1,000,000. To read more on this approach, please refer to our April 17 estimation update.




  12. #47
    Tanko
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    Great info Chi... Thanks

    Summary of the number of states easing social distancing rules by week.
    May week 1: 4
    May week 2: 4
    May week 3: 11
    May week 4: 9
    May week 5: 2
    End May total: 30

    Then 9 more open 1st week of June.
    The states with the biggest chunks of the US economy would be slowly returning mid-May through first part of June.

    So if everything holds to projection (a big if), 39 states should start easing implementations of social distancing by June 7th.

    Seems like the numbers will move some from this timing but at least we have some ideas of when we will be progressing.

    Thanks Chi.

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