Originally Posted by
Louisvillekid1
Im going to share my thoughts on the card here.
Race 1
16k ** on the grass going a mile
#1 Crumb Cake 20/1 , The only reason Im mentioning this horse, is because their is some potential for this one to be a surprising part of the early pace. Draws the rail and drops the weight after showing b2b 3/8’s works, but can’t win and highly doubt will even hit the board.
#2 Last Jet Out 20/1, not a factor
#3 Lovedisc 9/2, I don’t really see this morning line being very accurate. I have no interest in using this one in any fashion. I suppose dropping down and I like the connections but I’m Looking elsewhere.
#4 Soy Borracho 15/1, Not a factor
#5 Anywhere Road 20/1, Not a factor
#6 Fayez 12/1, Outside contender chance. 0-14 but has hit the board in 5 of those and the #’s are slightly improving. Just missed last time out, but for me an trifecta play only.
#7 Berry Hill 8/1, This one showed some early kick in the debut at this level @29/1. Finishing about 5 behind the #6 Fayez. Could take a step forward today in the 2nd attempt, but Im looking elsewhere.
#8 Proud Country 30/1, also come outta that same race, running 11th beating by 18 @ 28/1. Connections are strong, but I’m not interested
#9 First in Line 6/1, Beautifully breed animal , War Front / Indian Charlie , being handled by top flight connections in Mr. Weaver and Jersey Joe returns. They plummet this one down from 50k, and add the eye cups. This barns does some good work 2nd time out and should take a step forward in this spot. However won't be my top pick, because this free fall drop for a horse they just paid 135k for (now you have to understand that sire fee was 125k alone so this horse wasn’t taking money at the Keeneland September scale and now it can be all yours for 16k. Feels Desperate, and could easily score, but I’ll be using underneath mostly.
#10 Mayito 7/2, One of the tops jock in florida is enticed to ride this one for the new barn under Joseph Saffie. Now Saffie, has huge numbers 1st off the claim/Private Purchase, but he has been ice cold. He is one of trainers that I suspected was cheated and might of cleaned up after the fbi raid because he’s icicles right now. Plus after paying 32k for this one and being on the bench for 2 months, its not a positive to be dropping for half that today. Obv a factor is fully tuned up, but not on top for me.
#11 Hero Up 4/1, Hector Diaz Jr, only has one scheduled mount on the card and this one is the clear speed on this field. Horse is dropping down for the 2nd straight time and is a major factor on the front end here in a race w/o a ton of pace. $10 is a tasty price and my top pick to wire this group.
#12 Rapstorerocks 8/1, I Think this one could be a nice price play and I’d include on the multi race bets if Hector can’t get the 11 home. Dropped in to this spot the 1st of this month and encountered a ton of trouble, steading twice, the running line shows the z pattern but once this one got room he made up 4 lengths on the back stretch finishing 6th but only beaten by 2.5 and gets the hottest jock in florida aboard to upgrade the cockpit. Not sure if shortening back up is helpful, however,drawing the 12 post should be guided to a better trip. Kelly Breen is a very solid trainer.
Top pick #11 Hero up 4/1, But I’ll need around that price in this type of field, wouldnt be playing this one to win less than 5/2, really need close to that Morning line.
Multi Race: 11 A ,12 B , 9 B , 6 C 10 C
Could be a nice race to hit an exotic, but I don’t love this one that much to key alone on top. Would have to cut the bet down and use the 9,12 as well. something like 9,11,12 w/ 9,10,11,12 w/ 6,9,10,11,12….