1. 03-21-20 11:13 AM #1
    sdtnvols42
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    Any Good Sports Handicapping Books Out Now

    Anyone recommend good sports handicapping books? Any new ones out
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  2. 03-21-20 11:14 AM #2
    carolinakid
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    i would just do a goggle search........
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  3. 03-24-20 11:58 PM #3
    lleytian3
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    If you are just starting out and want to be serious about this, I would start out with "sharper" and "sharp sports betting"

    "weighing the odds in sports betting" and "how the professionals beat the pro football point spread" are good

    "The logic of sports betting" is probably the best sports betting book to date, and can give you a step by step guide on how to win in today's sports betting world

    I would also strongly recommend decision type books by authors like Daniel Kahneman, Gary Klein, and Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

    A good starting book for decision making is "Thinking in bets"
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  4. 03-25-20 05:23 AM #4
    sdtnvols42
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    Thanks bro reading Sharper right now
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  5. 03-25-20 05:58 AM #5
    jjgold
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    What winners ever write books??
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  6. 03-25-20 06:35 AM #6
    Easy-Rider 66
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    What winners ever write books??
    Andrew Beyer
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  7. 03-25-20 12:34 PM #7
    danrubin12
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    depends how technical you want to get.

    Andrew Mack wrote a couple books on sports modeling in excel that is useful. there are others available if you want to work in R or Python.

    Logic of Sports Betting is useful for understanding the sports betting markets, how to trade and minimize house edge.

    Joe Peta's Trading Bases is a good read. Outlines some basic principles of baseball handicapping that could be applied to other sports with a little creativity.
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  8. 03-25-20 01:46 PM #8
    gojetsgomoxies
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    larry seidel's college basketball books are good........ and like the previous comment, you can probably take general principles and apply them in other sports.
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  9. 03-25-20 01:47 PM #9
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    What winners ever write books??
    all kinds of authors make way more money than any sports gambler could ever dream of.
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  10. 03-26-20 01:58 PM #10
    TommieGunshot
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    A few years old, but I found Trading Bases to be one of the best from this century: https://www.amazon.com/Trading-Bases.../dp/0451415175

    There are also the old standbys, The Odds by Millman and Smart Money by Konik.
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  11. 03-26-20 01:59 PM #11
    jjgold
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    There’s basically only about five principles you need you don’t have to read books
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  12. 03-26-20 03:02 PM #12
    johnnyvegas13
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    I will save u the trouble there r none
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  13. 03-30-20 02:17 AM #13
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by sdtnvols42 View Post
    Thanks bro reading Sharper right now
    Cool man, how you liking it?
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  14. 03-30-20 02:18 AM #14
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    There’s basically only about five principles you need you don’t have to read books
    What are those principles?
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  15. 03-30-20 07:58 AM #15
    hubie69
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    Yes, lots, pm me and I'll shoot ya a list
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  16. 03-30-20 02:52 PM #16
    gojetsgomoxies
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    i've always wanted to try handicapping but 1) it seems to time intensive, 2) i would have thought anything i can come up with that people would just say that's obvious.

    here's a good example........... tell me if this makes sense.

    take a poorly ranked team. but they have good run defense. everything else is bad, including pass defense...... what if they play a good team who achilles is mediocre passing attack. but very good defense and run offense.......... is this a situation that makes sense?

    to me handicapping is coming up with things that aren't captured in some sort of adjusted-power rating (power rating adjusted for injury stuff, and some sort of recency).....

    basically looking for this amongst reasonably similarly rated teams (say under 7 point spreads)... A beats B, B beats C. C is surprisingly highly competitive with A........... i see stuff like this in mediocre tiers of high school sports. or at my local tennis/golf club. but that's a long way from pro/college sports.
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  17. 03-30-20 03:01 PM #17
    clockwise1965
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    I've read several handicapping books. I have yet to read a book that provides a model that translates to being a profitable sports bettor.
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  18. 03-30-20 10:27 PM #18
    gojetsgomoxies
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    it's hard to have too many good books about handicapping...... seems to me like it's alot of hard work and highly judgemental... it doesn't seem like it's backtestable.

    i'm thinking a perfect example would have been the detroit lions with calvin johnson. i can't remember how good the team was but i think mediocre at best.......... so a big swing factor is whether X team has a CB who has decent shot at containing MegaTron. so bad team with great CB might be good choice.

    like i said, you need to find stuff that makes the game play quite differently to power ratings and of course ultimately the point spread...... power ratings track point spreads pretty well once there's alot of season data.
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  19. 03-31-20 01:37 AM #19
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    i've always wanted to try handicapping but 1) it seems to time intensive, 2) i would have thought anything i can come up with that people would just say that's obvious.

    here's a good example........... tell me if this makes sense.

    take a poorly ranked team. but they have good run defense. everything else is bad, including pass defense...... what if they play a good team who achilles is mediocre passing attack. but very good defense and run offense.......... is this a situation that makes sense?

    to me handicapping is coming up with things that aren't captured in some sort of adjusted-power rating (power rating adjusted for injury stuff, and some sort of recency).....

    basically looking for this amongst reasonably similarly rated teams (say under 7 point spreads)... A beats B, B beats C. C is surprisingly highly competitive with A........... i see stuff like this in mediocre tiers of high school sports. or at my local tennis/golf club. but that's a long way from pro/college sports.
    I would say sports betting is time intensive period, so if your not putting a lot of time into this you won't be very good which applies to most things.

    Next anything that you can come up, or what it sounds like what the public perception is on a certain game gives you an advantage. As sports betting becomes more legal in more states, it will gain popularity. As more of the 'public' bet on a high profile game there are a lot of times where it will be profitable betting against the public. One of the best examples of this is Connor McGregor vs Floyd Mayweather. The ML on mayweather had tremendous value as the betting public was heavily on McGregor.

    Your situation makes sense, but it is definitely a situation I wouldn't bet on. One of the more fundamental aspects what you want to look for is a good rushing offense vs a bad rushing defense and you could insert pass offenses and defenses here as well.

    Handicapping can include everything you said but the biggest thing you missed is motivation. Motivation especially in college football is huge. If your able to handicap motivation well in college football that would be profitable as well.

    Hope this helps. Good Luck
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  20. 03-31-20 01:42 AM #20
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by clockwise1965 View Post
    I've read several handicapping books. I have yet to read a book that provides a model that translates to being a profitable sports bettor.
    Then you haven't read any good ones. Any good handicapping or sports betting book starts off that this is not a formula to win at sports betting. As any logical person would understand that if they put a certain formula for winning in a book that market would obviously soon catch on.

    What a lot of the books I recommend say is that they will give you a guide to winning in sports betting. I'm sure people that are putting in time to try and get better are not so naive that they think there is a magic formula in one of the books that show you exactly what to bet to be profitable. Come on man...
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  21. 03-31-20 02:01 AM #21
    MrCOB
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    Quote Originally Posted by danrubin12 View Post
    depends how technical you want to get.

    Andrew Mack wrote a couple books on sports modeling in excel that is useful. there are others available if you want to work in R or Python.

    Logic of Sports Betting is useful for understanding the sports betting markets, how to trade and minimize house edge.

    Joe Peta's Trading Bases is a good read. Outlines some basic principles of baseball handicapping that could be applied to other sports with a little creativity.
    This is a good list. Andrew Mack's first book was quite short, but has some useful tools and I think it was worth the money. Still I can't bring myself to order the second book - I guess it is good as well, but I still find the price per the sheer volume of content a bit high.

    Joseph Buchdal's Fixed Odds Sports Betting was also quite decent.
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  22. 03-31-20 07:41 AM #22
    hubie69
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    There’s basically only about five principles you need you don’t have to read books
    Just because you can't read doesn't mean the rest of us can't enjoy the activity.
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  23. 04-02-20 09:32 PM #23
    gojetsgomoxies
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    lleytian, thanks........ good comments

    i didn't mean for my comments to be comprehensive.... just an idea.

    we have a thread about modelling game scores....... and people, including me, said "why re-invent the wheel"... tons of excellent data scientists do this already....... why not take the game score prediction as your base and work around it? and that would be a good team against a poor team, but poor team's one strength matches up very well against..

    i agree totally on motivation and in professional travel sports using spots..
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  24. 04-03-20 07:04 AM #24
    oilcountry99
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    Quote Originally Posted by sdtnvols42 View Post
    Thanks bro reading Sharper right now
    me to, good book, did you like it?
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  25. 04-04-20 12:14 AM #25
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by gojetsgomoxies View Post
    lleytian, thanks........ good comments

    i didn't mean for my comments to be comprehensive.... just an idea.

    we have a thread about modelling game scores....... and people, including me, said "why re-invent the wheel"... tons of excellent data scientists do this already....... why not take the game score prediction as your base and work around it? and that would be a good team against a poor team, but poor team's one strength matches up very well against..

    i agree totally on motivation and in professional travel sports using spots..
    I like the idea about taking game score predictions on starting from there. I would probably say power ratings would give you a much better base though.

    Speaking of modeling do you have any models you make on games? Or do you know where I could find those people that do model game scores?
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  26. 04-04-20 06:15 AM #26
    clockwise1965
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    Quote Originally Posted by lleytian3 View Post
    Then you haven't read any good ones. Any good handicapping or sports betting book starts off that this is not a formula to win at sports betting. As any logical person would understand that if they put a certain formula for winning in a book that market would obviously soon catch on.

    What a lot of the books I recommend say is that they will give you a guide to winning in sports betting. I'm sure people that are putting in time to try and get better are not so naive that they think there is a magic formula in one of the books that show you exactly what to bet to be profitable. Come on man...
    Don't be ridiculous!

    There are literally thousands of books on handicapping sports.

    Your suggesting that with the right handicapping books you will long term at the sportsbook. If so, why do 98% of sports bettors lose.

    I guess 98% of sports bettors read the wrong books.
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  27. 04-04-20 06:35 AM #27
    Louisvillekid1
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    it’s instilled

    have it or you don’t

    losing , reevaluating , time

    teaches handicapping

    but would never be against reading a book


    wAgering is the hard part
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  28. 04-04-20 08:36 PM #28
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by clockwise1965 View Post
    Don't be ridiculous!

    There are literally thousands of books on handicapping sports.

    Your suggesting that with the right handicapping books you will long term at the sportsbook. If so, why do 98% of sports bettors lose.

    I guess 98% of sports bettors read the wrong books.
    Sports bettors read books? Really? Be honest with yourself, how many friends do you have that watch sports AND read books? I highly doubt that you will have a lot.

    YES that is exactly what I am suggesting. First I said it is a GUIDE to winning in sports betting. I specifically said there is NO "magic formula" that will tell you how to win at sports betting. Next if you read the book and actually put what is in them in practice AND work really hard at it then you will win long term. Its proven.

    98% of sports bettors lose because 90% of them only do this for pure entertainment. The other 8% don't want to put the time, work and effort it takes to win at sports betting. It is that simple. If you work really hard and follow the guidelines laid out in these book you can win long term at sports betting. And you can take that to the bank
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  29. 04-04-20 09:54 PM #29
    jjgold
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    Read a book on religion and save your life not on gambling
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  30. 04-04-20 10:17 PM #30
    biggie12
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Read a book on religion and save your life not on gambling
    JJ continuing to make solid posts now that there is no sports going on. You should be this informative all the time.
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  31. 04-04-20 10:19 PM #31
    jjgold
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    Thanks Biggie
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  32. 04-05-20 07:30 AM #32
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by lleytian3 View Post
    Sports bettors read books? Really? Be honest with yourself, how many friends do you have that watch sports AND read books? I highly doubt that you will have a lot.

    YES that is exactly what I am suggesting. First I said it is a GUIDE to winning in sports betting. I specifically said there is NO "magic formula" that will tell you how to win at sports betting. Next if you read the book and actually put what is in them in practice AND work really hard at it then you will win long term. Its proven.

    98% of sports bettors lose because 90% of them only do this for pure entertainment. The other 8% don't want to put the time, work and effort it takes to win at sports betting. It is that simple. If you work really hard and follow the guidelines laid out in these book you can win long term at sports betting. And you can take that to the bank
    I agree with you, pretty insightful.
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  33. 04-05-20 07:52 AM #33
    jjgold
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    Nothing to learn when everything is random
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  34. 04-05-20 08:38 PM #34
    lleytian3
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Read a book on religion and save your life not on gambling
    LMAO why?

    Reading about some invisible man up there above the clouds looking down laughing at us while we are dealing with a global pandemic with no cure in sight while tens of thousands of people dying?

    Or reading actual real life events where it could lead to real cold hard cash in your hand?

    That sounds like a really hard decision. Yeah I refuse to pollute my brain with some "god" that allows unspeakable tragedies like the unexpected death of Kobe and Gigi Bryant. I'm good.
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  35. 04-06-20 08:39 PM #35
    gojetsgomoxies
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    Quote Originally Posted by lleytian3 View Post
    I like the idea about taking game score predictions on starting from there. I would probably say power ratings would give you a much better base though.

    Speaking of modeling do you have any models you make on games? Or do you know where I could find those people that do model game scores?
    i don't model games........

    i would think 3 types of modelling (at least)

    1) power ratings and scoring data gives u score

    2) next step is looking at pass/rush offense/defense and trying to figure out something different from #1... pace of play too......... one thing i think people miss is when two very similar or disimilar teams play each other. i'm talking probably more outliers. like the service academies vs. good run defenses, although those run D's haven't dealt with the option generally

    3) modelling the game on a play by play basis..... apparently people do this.
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