1. 03-20-20 10:28 PM #1
    asiagambler
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    FIDE Chess Candidates Kirill Alekseenko +1230

    Ok so after 3 matches, Alekseenko is tied for last place with 1 point (2D 1L)

    His opponent Wang Hao is tied for 1st with 2 points (1W 2D)

    Alekseenko got a wild card entry and he's by far the lowest rated player in the field

    But I think he's being undervalued and Wang overvalued

    Wang beat his countryman Ding Liren in the first round but Ding's really been off his game here. I think the quarantine really affected him and he couldn't prepare with his seconds

    Wang hasn't really impressed since, drawing against Giri despite having a good position and lucky to draw against Grischuk with a bad position

    It's also worth noting that Ding had Wang dead to rights in their match but blundered away a winning position

    Alekseenko lost to top rated Caruana but that's expected. I thought he played pretty well last round against Nepomniatchi with a bold exchange sacrifice and just barely missed out on a winning sequence

    Overall, I think he's not intimidated and playing in his home country of course helps

    Wang will go for the win here since he's white and Alekseenko is the wild card that everyone is expected to go for points against

    So we should see a sharp game and Alekseenko has shown good counterattacking abilities as black. He has relatively recent wins as black against Karjakin and Harikrishna, two 2750+ players. I think these odds are worth a shot
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    coanwe gave asiagambler 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  2. 03-20-20 10:32 PM #2
    asiagambler
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    Game starts tomorrow 7 AM ET I think
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  3. 03-20-20 10:34 PM #3
    JayLA
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    We really doin this asia?

    Are draws common? It's at 1.65
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  4. 03-20-20 10:38 PM #4
    cincinnatikid513
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    they gonna show this on espn ocho
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  5. 03-20-20 10:40 PM #5
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayLA View Post
    We really doin this asia?

    Are draws common? It's at 1.65
    Not much else to bet Jay

    Just a small bet for me, cashed out most of my funds already

    Draws are very common, especially among the top players
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  6. 03-20-20 10:41 PM #6
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    they gonna show this on espn ocho
    Nope but there's bunch of live streams with commentary if you want Cincy
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  7. 03-20-20 10:45 PM #7
    cincinnatikid513
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Nope but there's bunch of live streams with commentary if you want Cincy
    heck,yah i ll watch why not nothing else on but depressing news
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  8. 03-20-20 10:46 PM #8
    asiagambler
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  9. 03-20-20 11:00 PM #9
    cincinnatikid513
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    ive heard of magnus isn't he the best
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  10. 03-20-20 11:08 PM #10
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by cincinnatikid513 View Post
    ive heard of magnus isn't he the best
    yup he's the current champion and he's also considered the best player of all time, not just of this current era

    He's one of those people who can remember everything he ever did down to all the minute details. Obviously good trait to have for chess
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  11. 03-20-20 11:12 PM #11
    jizay
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayLA View Post
    We really doin this asia?

    Are draws common? It's at 1.65
    Hella common. Winner of this tourney plays for the world championship, so you'd think players are looking for decisive results (doesn't matter if you're 2nd or 8th), yet there have still been some ridiculous draws.
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  12. 03-20-20 11:16 PM #12
    JayLA
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    Hmm ok I'll play it safe and play the no draw line at 6 for lunch money
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  13. 03-20-20 11:17 PM #13
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by JayLA View Post
    Hmm ok I'll play it safe and play the no draw line at 6 for lunch money
    Oh wow I actually like that bet a lot. Where did you bet it?

    I didn't realize books had draw no bet lines for chess lol
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  14. 03-20-20 11:18 PM #14
    JayLA
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    It's a colombian book that I suspect uses pinny lines. Pinnacle blocked their own site in Colombia so I can't confirm.
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  15. 03-20-20 11:22 PM #15
    asiagambler
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    Yes that's actually a very useful way to bet chess since draws are so frequent

    The draw is almost always chalk between two strong players
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  16. 03-20-20 11:24 PM #16
    JayLA
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    1.22 for Wang
    6 for Kirill

    3 way and double chance

    Lol is there an over under?
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  17. 03-20-20 11:28 PM #17
    asiagambler
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    O/U could be done for total moves but that seems wayyy too unpredictable and random
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  18. 03-21-20 09:46 AM #18
    jizay
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    Aleeksenko in deep trouble. Draw is best result for him.
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  19. 03-21-20 10:13 AM #19
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by jizay View Post
    Aleeksenko in deep trouble. Draw is best result for him.
    What?? He was never in any danger of losing
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  20. 03-21-20 10:14 AM #20
    jizay
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    What?? He was never in any trouble of losing
    Wang had a winning chance. Aleeksenko never did. He defended well, will be a draw.
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  21. 03-21-20 10:14 AM #21
    JayLA
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    the book refunded bet
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  22. 03-21-20 10:16 AM #22
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by jizay View Post
    Wang had a winning chance. Aleeksenko never did. He defended well, will be a draw.
    What winning chance??

    Saying Alekseenko had no winning chance is completely different from saying he is in trouble
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  23. 03-21-20 10:18 AM #23
    asiagambler
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    Pawn on 7th rank is not a winning chance lol

    It's not like Wang had a significant advantage and blundered

    Wang had a very small advantage (engine gave about +0.75 at its peak) and Alekseenko defended adequately
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  24. 03-21-20 10:29 AM #24
    asiagambler
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    Game was nothing special. I'm very surprised Wang played such a conservative opening. Alekseenko decided against playing something risky and the game turned into a typical KIA

    Caruana had a winning chance

    MVL had a winning chance

    This was nothing
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  25. 03-21-20 10:34 AM #25
    jizay
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    Quote Originally Posted by asiagambler View Post
    Game was nothing special. I'm very surprised Wang played such a conservative opening. Alekseenko decided against playing something risky and the game turned into a typical KIA

    Caruana had a winning chance

    MVL had a winning chance

    This was nothing
    Caruana and MVL were definitely winning. Caruana absolutely blundered. Qd4 was winning. But most of the other games are just disappointing. Who cares if you're 2nd or 8th, you only play for the WC if you win. You'd think there would be more chances taken.
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  26. 03-21-20 10:37 AM #26
    asiagambler
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    Quote Originally Posted by jizay View Post
    Caruana and MVL were definitely winning. Caruana absolutely blundered. Qd4 was winning. But most of the other games are just disappointing. Who cares if you're 2nd or 8th, you only play for the WC if you win. You'd think there would be more chances taken.
    Well that was my point with Wang

    He's white going against the wild card and you open with... Nf3??

    Game was basically drawn after that move lol
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  27. 03-21-20 10:46 AM #27
    asiagambler
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    As for other players taking chances, they definitely will as the tournament progresses

    There's still a lot of chess to be played and remember it's still just 1 point separating 1st and last

    There's no reason for someone to be completely reckless yet
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