1. #1
    danrubin12
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    Don't bet on where Tom Brady is going to play next - NFL Futures

    Everyone loves an interesting prop bet. But please donít bet on which team Tom Brady will play for next. I did an analysis calculating the hold books are raking in from this futures bet and it's over 30%.
    I know itís exciting and I know itís fun to speculate. It also makes for great clickbait - both Action Network and ESPN have posted articles recently speculating on the odds of Tom Brady joining X team.
    But what the Action Network (with a tagline ďSmart betting made easyĒ) and ESPN neglect to tell you is that it is among the worst bets you can make.
    Hereís why.
    The Hold isÖWHAT?!
    The Action Network referenced odds from FanDuel in their article. They provide very little analysis (with incorrect calculations of implied probabilities) and four links to FanDuel to encourage you to place a wager into a market with a >30% hold for FanDuel.
    Since odds are constantly moving, I grabbed the odds for this prop from FanDuel at 7:00pm ET on March 6th.
    FanDuel Futures Odds - Tom Brady's Next Team
    New England Patriots -155
    Tennessee Titans +250
    Los Angeles Chargers +750
    Las Vegas Raiders +850
    San Francisco 49ers +1000
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1500
    Dallas Cowboys +2900
    Miami Dolphins +2900
    New York Giants +2900
    Indianapolis Colts +3700
    No Team/Retired +3700
    Chicago Bears +5000
    Carolina Panthers +6000
    At first glance, itís hard to tell if this is a good or bad bet offering.
    SPOILER ALERT: itís bad. When we calculate the hold on this market it comes to 31.44%.
    Hold Calculation
    Clearly the Patriots are the favorite here. So why wouldnít FanDuel simply offer up Patriots vs the Field?
    For one, people love to bet on their favorite team rather than the ďFieldĒ. Itís exciting to get big odds on a long shot, and through our own biases we find ways to convince ourselves that X team "has value".
    But FanDuel didnít offer this variety of options to benefit you. They offered it to line their pockets with your money. You see, to get an equivalent hold (31.44%) on Patriots vs Field, FanDuel would have to offer Pats/Field at -155/-570. Yes, you read that correctly: -155/-570.
    I could continue to trash on the Action Network, but I was always taught to give credit where creditís due: FanDuel doesnít even offer the worst odds on this prop.
    We checked out the odds at several other sportsbooks offering this prop, namely Westgate (referenced by ESPN), William Hill, BetMGM and PointsBet. What we found were even more egregious offerings:


    Sportsbook Theoretical Hold
    Westgate 28.57%
    FanDuel 31.44%
    William Hill 38.27%
    BetMGM 41.28%
    PointsBet 45.58%
    Average 37.03%
    Disgusting. Giving someone $1.00 today with the expectation of receiving $0.63 in return 6 months from now is borderline criminal. Do yourself a favor and find something else to bet on.
    Points Awarded:

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  2. #2
    eaglesfan371
    The great game of POT...LIMIT...OMAHA
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    Good write up.

  3. #3
    Emily_Haines
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    The max bet is $100 on this

    No one is getting hurt that bad

  4. #4
    rm18
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    Still can be value. Lamar was +25000 for Heisman Dak was +30000 for ROY despite a big hold.

  5. #5
    jjgold
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    most future bets are sucker juice

    Always remember that

  6. #6
    semibluff
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    The greater the number of possible outcomes the greater the total book price. The more uncertain the market the greater the total book price. Simple gambling market economics. If you find value then bet it. If you don't find value then don't bet it, unless you're ok just betting for entertainment. If you bet a 3-way line on the Premier League you're likely betting into a 104% book. If you bet an NFL handicap 2-way line you're betting into a 105% book. If you bet an F1 race with 6 possible winners sportsbooks will probably make you bet into a 119% book when 110% would be more reasonable.

  7. #7
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Emily_Haines View Post
    The max bet is $100 on this

    No one is getting hurt that bad
    I would put a bill on the colts

    Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired

  8. #8
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    most future bets are sucker juice

    Always remember that
    Correct..

    For every ten futures bets maybe two of them have very good value, the other eight are extreme sucker bets.
    If you can spot the twenty percent long term future bets and don't mind tieng up your money for months at a time than go for it but you're better off with daily low volume spot wagers if you ask me.

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  9. #9
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    I would put a bill on the colts

    Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired
    Rivers will probably go to Indy but that again is still speculation.
    Nobody outside the insiders in the teams front office knows what they are thinking.
    Not only that come draft day there could be an unsuspected trade up or down that surprises everybody.
    Now the Giants are saying they may trade their overall number four pick.
    Or not.
    You just don't know what's going to happen.

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  10. #10
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by stevenash View Post
    Rivers will probably go to Indy but that again is still speculation.
    Nobody outside the insiders in the teams front office knows what they are thinking.
    Not only that come draft day there could be an unsuspected trade up or down that surprises everybody.
    Now the Giants are saying they may trade their overall number four pick.
    Or not.
    You just don't know what's going to happen.
    Agree

    But it only makes sense that he goes to a team w a good o line

    Which imo colts have

    U can eliminate a lot of teams w bad o line / non contender

  11. #11
    BigdaddyQH
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    Agreed. Rivers needs a good OL to protect him because he simply cannot move real well. He needs that pocket. I have a friend who make a wager at a sportsbook in Las Vegas. HE took Rivers to Indy and Brady to Tennessee in a parlay wager offered by that particular book. I do not know what he got for odds, but I believe it was in the vicinity of 12 or 13/1.

  12. #12
    Plaza23
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    -155 is a steal for the Patriots. Bradyís legacy is being with one team his entire career. He isnít going to play anywhere else and the Patriots can pay him more than any other team.

    A real bet would be Patriots -250 vs Retire +200.

  13. #13
    jjgold
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    Pats it is
    I think we will hear and announcement within 2 weeks

  14. #14
    DrunkHorseplayer
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    I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.

  15. #15
    Snowball
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    I think he's gone - and told Belichick to Fuq Off on the phone this week.

    Kraft will have to override Belichick, or can him.
    Last edited by Snowball; 03-08-20 at 10:45 AM.

  16. #16
    johnnyvegas13
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.
    From all recent interview he insists he's not retiring

    So all we know is he is gonna play and play for a contender

  17. #17
    Harry N. Lloyd
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    I would put a bill on the colts

    Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired
    Johnny Johnny Johnny, tsk tsk tsk.

    Do you not remember Deflategate? That playoff game when the Pats beat Indy 45-7 but the crybaby Colts blamed it all on the footballs and then Brady got fined millions of dollars and had to serve a 4 game suspension?

    Brady is more likely leave Giselle for Lena Dunham than he is to suit up for those sniveling snitches, the Colts.

  18. #18
    Bostongambler
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    He stays


    Thread Closed!

  19. #19
    stevenash
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostongambler View Post
    He stays


    Thread Closed!
    More than likely he stays in New England but it makes for good sports radio talk.
    Colts or Pats.

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  20. #20
    DoctorStrong
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    I think he leaves

  21. #21
    TheGuesser
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    Quote Originally Posted by DrunkHorseplayer View Post
    I have to believe that if Brady was staying, he would've already signed. He's going elsewhere or retiring.
    Why? He's reveling in all this pub, and he is enjoying being a Free agent for the first time. He'll listen to others love all over him, and then re-sign with NE. If he signs with NE early, he misses out on all the fun.

  22. #22
    thechaoz
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    Those lines are a joke.

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  23. #23
    The Kraken
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    Quote Originally Posted by thechaoz View Post
    Those lines are a joke.
    Almost as bad as the ones I had last weekend

    Shits getting saddddd

  24. #24
    Grits n' Gravy
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnnyvegas13 View Post
    I would put a bill on the colts

    Only team w value and it make so much sense w luck retired
    Like Harry said, no chance. Indy snitches.

  25. #25
    cincinnatikid513
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    any team that gives a declining 43 year old 30 million plus a year has lost it's mind

    welcome to the raiders tom
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  26. #26
    danrubin12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Plaza23 View Post
    -155 is a steal for the Patriots. Brady’s legacy is being with one team his entire career. He isn’t going to play anywhere else and the Patriots can pay him more than any other team.

    A real bet would be Patriots -250 vs Retire +200.
    For those who are *certain* that he's going to the Pats, I'd suggest shopping for the best line out there. I've found books with -125...

  27. #27
    danrubin12
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    hope no one laid -155 on Pats...

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