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Best bets for UFC 248: Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero 👊
Best bets for UFC 248: Israel Adesanya vs. Yoel Romero
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
A return to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas means that UFC 248 is a major fight card intended to draw plenty of attention.
Not only are we getting two titles fights, but both feature two current champions growing into international stars, and each is making a first title defense. Coincidentally, both are facing talented challengers who have plenty of title fight experience of their own. The incumbent champs are both betting favorites and likely to close that way, but we're only backing one with any confidence.
Early prelims begin at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and prelims are at 8 p.m. on ESPN. The main card starts at 10 p.m. on PPV.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, as of Thursday.
Middleweight main event: Champ Israel Adesanya (-280) vs. No. 3 Yoel Romero (+230)
Tale Of The TapeAdesanya is the phenom that the UFC hopes can combine the formerly untouchable skills of Anderson Silva with the confidence and dominance of Jon Jones. He has talent, charisma and now a belt. And just as important, he has a flashy video game style-striking arsenal that that has caught the sport's attention. But he's certainly not getting a layup for his first title defense.
ISRAEL ADESANYA YOEL ROMERO Last Fight Weight Class Middleweight Middleweight Age 30 42 Height 76 72 Reach 80 73 Stance Switch Southpaw Analyzed minutes 102 176 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (Scored : Received) 10:0 10:3 Distance knockdown rate 6.3% 5.1% Head jab accuracy 35% 34% Head power accuracy 37% 35% Total standup strike ratio 1.1 0.8 Striking defense Total head strike defense 76% 73% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 98% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per min standing/clinch 0.03 0.42 Takedown accuracy 0% 32% Advances per takedown/top control NA 0.3 Opponent takedown attempts 49 37 Takedown defense 86% 78% Share of total ground time in control 40% 58% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.43 0.00
Romero has faced plenty of talented strikers, and, surprisingly, has chosen to stand and trade with most of them. He has put in admirable performances -- winning most of his fights and losing a few to top talent -- all while rarely relying too heavily on the wrestling base that earned him an Olympic medal. He's accurate with explosive power when he swings for the fences, but he doesn't do well outpointing opponents with pace and volume.
Romero could consider himself a more powerful version of Kelvin Gastelum, who took Adesanya the distance in a closely contested title fight. Romero could change levels and probably will test Adesanya's youth and resilience (and his chin) at some point on the feet. But the risk with each fight past age 40 is that Romero's speed and durability will finally start to fade.
E+ recommends: At these odds, it's a pass. A small flier on Romero might be worthy, assuming more steam on Adesanya pushes odds further apart. If Romero approaches the +300 range he is worth a small play, but he has to make weight -- and look healthy doing so.
Women's strawweight championship: Champ Weili Zhang (-190) vs No. 4 Joanna Jedrzejczyk (+160)
Tale Of The TapeZhang has only four UFC appearances to date but is riding a 20-fight win streak that grabbed our collective attention only after a clear decision victory over a well-ranked Tecia Torres. That earned her a title shot against Jessica Andrade, which resulted in a stunning first-minute upset by knockout for Zhang. If the market thought that was a fluke, then she would not be favored against Jedrzejczyk, who has been that division's most dominant prior champion, amassing five successful title defenses and losing only to opponents in title fights. Yet here we are.
WEILI ZHANG JOANNA JEDRZEJCZYK Last Fight Weight Class Strawweight Strawweight Age 30 32 Height 64 66 Reach 63 65.5 Stance Switch Orthodox Analyzed minutes 34 247 Standup striking offense Total knockdown ratio (Scored : Received) 1:0 1:2 Distance knockdown rate 2.6% 0.3% Head jab accuracy 19% 23% Head power accuracy 31% 34% Total standup strike ratio 1.8 1.6 Striking defense Total head strike defense 79% 75% Distance knockdown defense ("Chin") 100% 99% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per min standing/clinch 0.51 0.04 Takedown accuracy 31% 63% Advances per takedown/top control 1.4 0.0 Opponent takedown attempts 3 122 Takedown defense 100% 81% Share of total ground time in control 80% 20% Submission attempts per trip to ground 0.50 0.04
The UFC history on Zhang is limited, but her stats are impressive; plus, there's a feeling she's only getting better with each performance. On paper she's a dual-threat fighter who can stand and trade but also puts the opponent on the mat. And while Jedrzejczyk made a career of being a busy and effective striker, Zhang might be the first to look even more voluminous and aggressive in her output than the Polish former champ.
Should it stay on the feet, Zhang will have a power advantage, plus the confidence to push forward enough to use it. What she needs to avoid is getting into a strike-and-fade contest against an experienced Muay Thai striker with an endless gas tank. If rounds are close, Zhang's coaches should encourage takedowns to solidify time in control and possible dampen Jedrzejczyk's offensive output. One thing Jedrzejczyk has never had is an effective ground offense, though she will force opponents to chase her.
E+ recommends: ML lean on Zhang, but not north of -200.
Other fight card values
An affordable favorite is Beneil Dariush. His matchup with Drakkar Klose pits a contrast between Dariush's aggressive style that finishes fights or results in his own loss by finish with the slower style of Klose, who has gone to the cards in every UFC appearance. Dariush is more accurate, more aggressive and much more likely to control the ground game.
E+ recommends: Dariush ML -170
For underdog potential, consider Neil Magny over Li Jingliang. Magny knows how to grind out a win and has deep experience against ranked opponents. Li has looked strong at times, but his best performances have come closer to home and against unranked talent.
E+ recommends: Magny ML +150
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