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Week 3 XFL Best Bets 🏈
Week 3 XFL best bets: A number we like on each game
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Our experts -- ESPN betting analysts Doug Kezirian and Anita Marks, sports betting deputy editor David Bearman and Matt Youmans of the Vegas Stats & Information Network -- are here to give their best bets for XFL's Week 3 slate.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Saturday's games
Houston Roughnecks (-6, 45.5) at Tampa Bay Vipers
Kezirian: Like any sports league, the XFL has a wide gap between the best and worst teams. Houston might be at the top and Tampa Bay is near the bottom, so I have no problem laying six points in Houston's first road game.
The undefeated Roughnecks have looked sharp in their first two games and are led by early MVP candidate P.J. Walker. As for the winless Vipers, supposed "quarterback whisperer" Marc Trestman has played three different quarterbacks for an offense that has yet to produce a touchdown. Oklahoma State product Taylor Cornelius figures to get the start, and I expect him to play better now that he is not in a loud environment like CenturyLink Field. However, Walker is a total stud and should have no issues putting up enough points to cover.
Pick: Houston -6
Youmans: Sharp bettors have been pounding these games under the total. Six of eight have stayed under, but at some point the trend will end. We have seen the totals drop from the low 50s to mid-40s, so the value in playing unders is decreasing.
The XFL needs more scoring, and Tampa Bay needs to show some life. This game has a good shot to reach the 50s, mostly because of the Roughnecks, who are scoring 32.5 points per game. Walker, who has passed for 221 yards per game with seven touchdowns, and wideout Cam Phillips are starring in coach June Jones' offense. The Vipers have had no offensive stars, but they could get a boost after trading for wide receiver S.J. Green, who was a playmaker in the CFL.
Pick: Over 45.5
Marks: I'm on the fence with the Vipers, a team that can rack up the yards and move the chains but then gets rattled in the red zone. Tampa has not scored an offensive TD this season ... #VenomLESS.
No word yet on whether Aaron Murray will start this week, but it doesn't matter; all three gunslingers -- Murray, Cornelius and Quinton Flowers -- flat out stink. Combined they have five interceptions, a 13% sack rate and have led the Vipers to a total of 12 points in two games.
Meanwhile, Houston has one of the best quarterbacks in the XFL. Walker has thrown seven touchdown passes, has 442 passing yards, 53 rushing yards and a 108.5 QB rating to lead his early MVP campaign. The Walker-Jones tandem has been magical, and the run-and-shoot offense fits P.J. to a T.
Pick: Houston -6
Dallas Renegades (-5, 43.5) at Seattle Dragons
Marks: Landry Jones made his XFL debut last week, but I was far from impressed. He got off to a slow start and tossed two interceptions and looks out of shape ... heck, I could probably run a better 40 time!
I like the under here, considering head coach Bob Stoops likes to run the ball and has not been very aggressive, settling for field goals rather than going for it on fourth down. Dallas is averaging 17 points per game. And the Dragons' offense has been as damp as Seattle, averaging just 18 points per game, and quarterback Brandon Silvers is a turnover machine.
Jim Zorn will rely on his rushing attack, a three-headed monster of Kenneth Farrow, Ja'Quan Gardner and Trey Williams that posted 95 yards in Week 1 and 117 yards in Week 2. Maybe Seattle should be called the Ghidorahs rather than Dragons (Google it!). Expect a home crowd of 30,000-plus to help Seattle keep this close.
Pick: Under and Seattle +5
Sunday's games
New York Guardians at St. Louis BattleHawks (-9, 42.5)
Bearman: I've touted the unders for both weeks and have been rewarded, as six of the eight games have hit under the total. The different level of talent and some overaggressive predictions with the new rules led to higher posted totals. The PAT rules (teams can go for 1, 2 or 3 points) -- expected to increase scoring -- have actually gone the other way, as teams have converted only 27% of 1-point conversions and 29% overall, far below the "almost automatic" kicked PAT.
I expect some market correction like we had with the Alliance of American Football, but if a total involving the Guardians is in the 40s, I will continue to take the under. Last week, New York became the first team to be shut out, and QB Matt McGloin was benched after his poor performance. New York has been outgained by more yards (415) than it has actually totaled (363) in two games, both last in the league. The Guardians are also 2-for-21 converting on third down this season, the worst mark in the league.
On the other side, the Battlehawks have had a good offense (382 yards per game), but it is one based on ball control. They have averaged 23 more plays per game than their opponents while averaging a league-high 158.5 yards on the ground. The combination of a ball-control team and one that has not found its offense screams under for me.
Pick: Under 42.5
Marks: The Guardians are a hot mess. I'm not certain McGloin has parked the bus he used to run over his entire coaching staff on national TV last week -- he told Diana Russini that the Guardians needed to "change the whole entire game plan." Considering New York is playing back-to-back road games, that's a tall task with very little time to right this ship ... or bus.
McGloin is working with a subpar offensive line and a head coach in Kevin Gilbride whose "2000 and late" offense might not be a good fit for an explosive XFL. The Guardians are averaging only 45 plays per game, while St. Louis is running 77 plays per game. Marinate in that for a minute.
The Battlehawks have the fourth-best offense in the league, and quarterback Jordan Ta'amu is performing above expectations. St Louis advances to 3-0 ATS (against the spread) on Sunday.
Pick: St. Louis -9
DC Defenders (-7.5, 44) at Los Angeles Wildcats
Bearman: Acknowledging it's a small sample size, but through two weeks, DC has been the best team top to bottom. The Defenders have scored 58 points (second most), allowed 19 points (best in the league) and showed the ability to score at both ends (four offensive TDs, three defensive/special teams TDs).
Quarterback Cardale Jones (511 passing yards, four TDs) is an early MVP candidate, and his weapons include WR Rashard Ross (six catches, 147 yards, TD) and a three-headed backfield that has averaged 88 rushing yards per game. They will be able to score on a Wildcats team that is last in the league in scoring defense (62 points), yards allowed (759) and pass yards allowed (55) through two games.
I was all set to the lay the 7.5 based on those stats alone, but L.A., despite being 0-2 ATS, has been in both games late. The Wildcats trailed Dallas by three at the end of third quarter last week and were down one to Houston in Week 1. Both games were terrible fourth quarters for the L.A. defense, resulting in non-covers. Add to that that it's DC's first road game and the number doesn't look as good as it once did.
With Josh Johnson and Nelson Spruce already on the same page and Spruce looking unstoppable through two games, the Wildcats can score, too. Bucking my conventional wisdom and seeing that the market has dropped some totals this week, I will take my first over of the season.
Pick: Over 44
Marks: DC is the best team in the XFL -- which you can still get at +200 to win the championship ... #JustSaying.
The Defenders are averaging 29 points per game and will face an L.A. defense that is allowing over 6 yards per play, due in part to having one of the worst defensive back groups in the XFL.
Jones, who happens to be the best quarterback in our nation's capital (sorry, Dwayne Haskins), and his long-ball threat will be too much for the Wildcats to defend. Look for DC head coach Pep Hamilton to focus on improving the Defenders' PAT efficiency as well (they have converted only one of seven tries this season).
Defensively, the Defenders are allowing only 9.5 points per game and also recently traded with L.A. for disgruntled defensive end Anthony Johnson. And this week Johnson gets to face his former team -- the team he quit on because the Wildcats fired defensive coordinator Pepper Johnson after Week 1. Tee that mad boy up! The Defenders roll big time.
Pick: DC -7.5
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Originally Posted by JoeCool20
