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Best bets for UFC 247: Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes 👊
Best bets for UFC 247: Jon Jones vs. Dominick Reyes
ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)
Saturday's card for UFC 247 from the Toyota Center in Houston features two title bouts. Jon Jones (25-1) will take on Dominick Reyes (12-0) in the light heavyweight main event, which will be preceded by the women's flyweight championship fight between Valentina Shevchenko (18-3) and Katlyn Chookagian (13-2).
Early prelims begin at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with prelims on ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
Light heavyweight main event: Champ Jon Jones (-450) vs. No. 4 Dominick Reyes (+325)
Tale Of The TapeJones opened at closer to 5-to-1, so the market to date has slightly favored the challenger. The current line, while steep, is still one of the lowest of recent history and could come close to where Jones landed against Daniel Cormier and Alexander Gustafsson if the trends continue. Clearly, Reyes deserves some respect for his impressive run at a title shot and undefeated career record. A few factors suggest Reyes will be a tough out.
JON JONES DOMINICK REYES Last Fight Weight Class Light heavyweight Light heavyweight Current Age 32 30 Height 76 76 Reach 84 77 Stance Orthodox Southpaw Analyzed Minutes 315 39 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 5:0 4:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 1.8% 8.3% Head Jab Accuracy 37% 25% Head Power Accuracy 32% 32% Total Standup Strike Ratio 1.1 1.6 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 79% 67% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 100% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.32 0.17 Takedown Accuracy 47% 17% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.7 2.0 Opponent Takedown Attempts 40 25 Takedown Defense 95% 84% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 99% 73% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.24 0.20
This will be only the second time Jones has faced a younger opponent (Anthony Smith). And his most recent outing versus Thiago Santos turned out much closer than the runaway betting odds suggested, ending in a split decision win for Jones. Perhaps the sheen of invincibility is finally losing its luster.
Bettors also could see similarities between the aggressive power striking of Reyes and Santos. On paper, Reyes outperforms in knockdown power, stand-up cage control and overall pace. Jones and Reyes have equal power striking accuracy, but Reyes notably has poor head strike defense, while Jones is notoriously hard to hit. Reyes tends to swing for the fences, while Jones utilizes a measured jab. Reyes is clearly dangerous, but the biggest unknown is how he holds up into championship rounds.
Should the fight stay on the feet, Reyes could have opportunities early if he can close the distance. But the longer Jones has to create space and get his timing down, the more he should be able to strike and fade his way toward winning the later rounds more clearly. But if Jones wants to create a more clear advantage, he could leverage his wrestling to stifle the offense of Reyes and put him into positions that test his less-seasoned grappling game.
Jones-Reyes PropsE+ recommends: It is the first ever pass on Jones. He is the pick to win, but at current odds, there's no value. Should the line drift significantly in either direction, there's some value on the other side. Instead, use "Fight Begins Round 2" in parlays.
Method of Victory Jones by KO/TKO/DQ +230 Reyes by KO/TKO/DQ 9/2 Jones by Submission +230 Reyes by Decision 10/1 Jones by Decision 12/5 Reyes by Submission 20/1 Draw 60/1 Result by Round Jones Round 1 13/4 Reyes Round 1 10/1 Jones Round 2 9/2 Reyes Round 2 14/1 Jones Round 3 6/1 Reyes Round 3 18/1 Jones Round 4 10/1 Reyes Round 4 25/1 Jones Round 5 15/1 Reyes Round 5 30/1 Jones Decision 12/5 Reyes Decision 10/1 Draw 60/1
Women's flyweight championship: Champ Valentina Shevchenko (-1200) vs. No. 1 Katlyn Chookagian (+750)
Tale Of The TapeWomen's division champions tend to be the only UFC matchups that see runaway betting lines, and Shevchenko's reign at flyweight is a perfect example. Having come up short twice in decisions against the women's GOAT, Amanda Nunes, Shevchenko is otherwise undefeated in UFC. And since returning to flyweight, she has been favored in all four appearances, and she closed in on 10-to-1 territory in her past two. So the steep line against a first-time title challenger is not at all surprising.
VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO KATLYN CHOOKAGIAN Last Fight Weight Class Women's flyweight Women's flyweight Current Age 31 31 Height 65 69 Reach 67 68 Stance Southpaw Orthodox Analyzed Minutes 154 120 Standup striking offense Total Knockdown Ratio (Scored : Received) 1:0 1:0 Distance Knockdown Rate 0.9% 0.6% Head Jab Accuracy 21% 22% Head Power Accuracy 31% 26% Total Standup Strike Ratio 0.9 1.0 Striking defense Total Head Strike Defense 88% 79% Distance Knockdown Defense ("Chin") 100% 100% Wrestling and grappling TD Attempts per Min Standing/Clinch 0.35 0.15 Takedown Accuracy 51% 0% Advances per Takedown/Top Control 0.9 NA Opponent Takedown Attempts 27 25 Takedown Defense 78% 56% Share of Total Ground Time in Control 75% 7% Submission Attempts per Trip to Ground 0.15 0.09
The simplified questions are whether there is an obvious hole in Shevchenko's game or an ace in the hole for Chookagian to pull a stunning upset. The answer to the first appears to be no. Shevchenko has survived two fights against Nunes, only losing a close, five-round split decision at bantamweight in their second fight. As an experienced and well-rounded fighter, Shevchenko adds solid defense and resilience. Meanwhile, Chookagian, has lost to Liz Carmouche and Jessica Eye -- two fighters Shevchenko handled easily -- and has no finishes in her UFC victories so far.
Shevchenko will be the more technical striker, and Chookagian's grappling has been ineffective to date. On paper, Shevchenko has been far more effective on the ground than Chookagian, who has yet to land a takedown. That doesn't leave much opportunity for a stunner, but unfortunately, the betting line already reflects the same. However, be careful expecting that the steep betting line supports a finish from Shevchenko. One notable takeaway from Chookagian's performances to date is that she has faced strong competition and has only lost by split decision. Should she turn up the pace, she should remain competitive early, even if Shevchenko pulls away on technical superiority.
E+ recommends: Shevchenko to win, but avoid the total rounds. Given the steep price, most will just use Shevchenko in parlays.
Other fight card values
• If you're looking for a more affordable favorite, consider Andrea Lee (-360) over Lauren Murphy (+280). Murphy is a tough grinder, but Lee's stats show an edge on the feet, as well as on the ground. Lee's price isn't cheap, but it's more affordable than either defending champion.
• For a long shot, consider Ilir Latifi (+210) against Derrick Lewis (-260). Lewis is a knockout threat against anyone. But when he doesn't get it, things can go south. If Latifi is smart, he will use his submission wrestling early and often, emptying Lewis' gas tank and testing his submission defense. Latifi is making his debut at heavyweight, which discounts our expectations, but he has a clear path to an upset worth a stab as long as he is north of +200. His submission prop also is a worthwhile lottery ticket at +1000 or more.
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