I wouldn't bet NO, SA is definiitely the contrarian look.
Of course it's contrarian for a reason. I don't think the Zion return is skewing the line too much, but I do think it's increasing the overall volume.
So some of that public money is justified on NO. NO is hot right now and gaining the hype tonight, but SA is heating up too.
The Contrarian in me says it's SA or nothing here, I do like the 3.5 and this thing is subject to RLM, for what it's worth, but less so as the day goes on. I have close game forecast with NO winning by less than 5. That forecast is 54-46 vs. the close over it's last 100 plays, for just +2 units.
When I account for the market adjustments to create the Contrarian Fund radar, the line adjusts to make the +3.5 a decent look. The +4 was better of course, but was the victim of RLM already. We're right on that edge.
I think the line probably holds here until late, then if it's going to move it's a blink from the market, one way or the other. We've already pulled off of 4, so it's possible it goes back.
Read that last sentence again, it means nothing conclusive at all. It only tells adds to the post that there is evidence for movement both ways, as of right now, so who the fuk knows?
But to make it have meaning and give a prediction, I think it goes back to +4. I am holding off unitl then.