Best bets for early slate of college football bowl games 🏈
Best bets for early slate of college football bowl games
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The College Football Playoff field is set, as are the rest of the bowl matchups. That means plenty of opportunities to bet over the course of bowl season.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian, Bill Connelly and Phil Steele are here to offer up their best bets. We'll keep updating as matchups approach, so follow along!
(2 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN at Thomas A. Robinson Stadium in Nassau, Bahamas)
Connelly: Both of these teams got hot late in the season. Charlotte won its last five and rose from 111th to 98th in SP+ to reach its first bowl, and Buffalo won five of its last six (the Bulls outgained Kent State by 95 yards in their lone loss) and rose from 113th to 84th. That the Bulls improved by more is the reason for them to be favored, but unless Charlotte goes into full "happy to be here" mode, six points is a lot.
This is a pretty interesting matchup of strength vs. strength (Charlotte O vs. Buffalo D) and weakness vs. weakness (Buffalo O vs. Charlotte D). If the 49ers find success against an aggressive, all-or-nothing Bulls pass defense, they could win outright. SP+ projects a 30-28 Buffalo win.
Pick: Charlotte +6.5
Steele: I am on the Joe Moore Award committee for choosing the top offensive line in the country, and Charlotte's unit got high praise on our conference calls during the season. Buffalo also has a solid offensive line, paving the way for 254 rushing yards per game and 5 yards per carry while allowing just eight sacks. The Bulls lost their starting QB in Week 5, and though Kyle Vantrease has thrown for just 155 yards per game in his seven starts, the team is 6-1 ATS in those games. Charlotte has the stronger pass game, but Buffalo has a good-sized edge on defense. Both teams rank near the bottom of my special-teams rankings.
My power ratings have this one close to the line, so with the strong offensive lines, I will look to the over (the past five Bahamas Bowls have averaged 66.2 points per game).
Pick: Lean over 52.5 Tropical Smoothie Cafe Frisco Bowl
(7:30 p.m. Dec. 20 on ESPN2 at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas)
Steele: This one figures to be a shootout, with Utah State allowing foes 33 yards per game above their season average and Kent State yielding 96 yards per game above. The Golden Flashes have a very underrated QB in Dustin Crum, who threw 18 TDS with just two interceptions and is the team's leading rusher with 560 yards. Aggies QB Jordan Love is an NFL prospect, but he had a 32-6 TD/INT breakdown last season with a tremendous supporting cast. With just one other returning starter on offense, this season he has only 17 TDs vs. 16 INTs, and Utah State has gone from 48 PPG to 28 PPG. Kent State has covered six in a row as an underdog versus non-Power 5 teams and is getting a full touchdown here. (The line was Utah State -7 before three players were cited for marijuana use Tuesday.)
(Noon Dec. 21 on ABC at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Steele: This is the fifth Celebration Bowl, which pits the champions from the MEAC and SWAC. North Carolina A&T is 3-0 in this bowl game, including a 24-22 win over Alcorn State last season. With Noah Johnson rushing for 1,080 yards, Alcorn State averaged 285 yards per game rushing and 6.2 yards per carry last season. Johnson went down with a season-ending injury this season, but his replacement, Felix Harper, was the SWAC Offensive Player of the Year.
The Aggies' defense is coming off a game in which it held NC Central to 9 total yards of offense in a 54-0 shutout. My computer and average game grades both have NC A&T winning by 10 points, so there is some definite value here.
(2 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico) Johnson: Maybe the memory of the Aztecs' 27-0 loss to Ohio in last year's Frisco Bowl is still fresh in everyone's minds, as it isn't too often that a MAC school dominates a bowl game. My projection here is San Diego State -6.2, and though the turnaround season from Central Michigan is a great story (1-11 to 8-5 and a MAC title game appearance), it probably speaks more to the lack of talent in the MAC than the actual abilities of the team relative to the rest of the country. Remember: Central Michigan lost 61-0 to Wisconsin earlier this season.
Not only am I getting the more talented team (starting quarterback Ryan Agnew is probable), but I'm specifically buying Rocky Long's defense, which ranks ninth in the country in defensive efficiency (4.6 yards per play) and first in rushing yards allowed per play (2.7). With Long having multiple weeks to prepare his defense for a Chippewas offense that has been playing MAC competition the past few months (124th-ranked strength of schedule), I'm thrilled to buy low here at a cheap number.
Pick: San Diego State -3.5
Steele: San Diego State games have topped 41 points just twice this season -- and they average 32 PPG. Central Michigan has the edge on offense, with RBs Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis, but the Aztecs' defense is No. 6 in the country, holding foes to 110 yards per game below their season average. When you think of San Diego State, you think of RBs who rush for 2,000 yards (two of them in past four years), but this year the top RB is Juwan Washington, with just 500 yards and a poor 3.3 yards per carry. The Aztecs have a significant edge on special teams at No. 17 in my rankings, with Central Michigan at No. 76, and that hurt them in the MAC title game. Central averaged just 13.6 points per game versus the five toughest defenses. I like the Aztecs to win, but they are laying more than a field goal, so I will lean with the under.
(2:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on CBS Sports Network at Exploria Stadium in Orlando, Florida)
Connelly: How much is a hot streak worth to you when a bowl break is involved? Georgia Southern began the season 1-3 and was ranked in the 100s in SP+ in late October, but excellent performances against Appalachian State, ULM and Georgia State not only drove the team to bowl eligibility but also lifted it to 89th in SP+. That's not bad, but do you lose your form with three weeks off?
Liberty, meanwhile, has basically been the same team for the past two months. The Flames were 91st in SP+ after six weeks and 87th at the end of the regular season. Their balanced and dangerous offense is the best unit in this game, and the connection of quarterback Stephen Calvert to receiver Antonio Gandy-Golden could have a field day against a shaky Georgia Southern pass defense. SP+ projects a near toss-up (Liberty by 0.2), which is almost a touchdown's difference with the betting market.
Pick: Liberty +5
Steele: Liberty is 7-5 despite facing the weakest schedule in the country. Hugh Freeze took over a 6-6 team and transformed Stephen Calvert from a QB that had 21 TDs and 18 INTs last season to a 26-5 ratio this season. Despite the schedule, Liberty allowed foes 4.7 yards per carry rushing and 26 yards above their season average. That does not bode well against the Georgia Southern option offense that ran for 261 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry. The Eagles took on LSU and Minnesota in nonconference play, and their defense held foes to 63 yards per game below their season average. This is Liberty's first bowl, and I will go with the team that has the much stronger defense and has played the far tougher schedule.
(3:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at FAU Stadium in Boca Raton, Florida) Steele: SMU is led by Texas transfer Shane Buechele (3,626 yards, 33 TDs, 9 INTS), and FAU is led by Oklahoma transfer Chris Robison (3,392 yards, 26 TDs, 6 INTs). The Owls won the Conference USA title this season, and their two nonconference losses were to Ohio State and UCF. SMU has just two losses this season, but the Mustangs were on the road to Memphis and Navy, who each had double-digit wins. The Owls have the better defense statistically, but the Mustangs had 50 sacks and took on the tougher schedule. I have been riding FAU all season, and though this team is a home underdog, head coach Lane Kiffin has accepted the job to coach Ole Miss. This should be a very competitive, high-scoring game.
Pick: Lean over 70.5
Johnson: Kiffin's departure is official, and defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer is taking over the coaching duties in the interim. The Owls' "reward" after winning Conference USA was the Boca Raton bowl in their own backyard without a head coach. Players look forward to the bowl season and the opportunity to travel to a new place and celebrate their program; FAU doesn't get to do that. Meanwhile Sonny Dykes and the Mustangs just completed their historic 10-win season.
When it comes to my personal projection in this matchup, I make the Mustangs a 5-point favorite. This isn't generally a big enough discrepancy for me to lay -3, but combined with Kiffin's departure and the specific matchup advantages on the SMU side, it's a worthwhile wager. I think most people see FAU's 34.7 PPG and consider the Owls a top-20 offense (again, with Kiffin). Breaking their offense down to a per play basis, however, and FAU only ranks 54th in YPP (5.7) and 88th in success rate (43.1%). Defensively, the Owls rank outside the top 100 allowing pass plays of 30 or more yards. Well, Buechele and the Mustangs' offense rank No. 2 in passes of 30 or more yards. SMU also leads the country with 4.2 sacks per game, while FAU ranks 73rd in sacks allowed per game (2.2). All of this is the product of FAU's 115th-ranked strength of schedule (SMU 75th).
The Mustangs should find success through the air and create havoc on the defensive side of the ball against an offense lacking Kiffin's guidance. Combining everything together points to the SMU side -- which lines up with my projection -- and we have the added bonus of our opponent's coach leaving for a bigger gig in the SEC. Give me the Mustangs in this setup every time.
(5:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Alabama) Steele: Arkansas State has a dangerous offense. Despite losing QB Logan Bonner after four games, backup Layne Hatcher stepped in and threw for 314 yards per game, and wide receiver Omar Bayless is among the nation's receiving leaders with 1,473 yards and 16 TDs. The Red Wolves' defense was hurt by injuries all season and lost four defensive tackles for the season, leaving them vulnerable to the run (they allowed 224 rushing yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry). FIU is led by running backs Anthony Jones and Napoleon Maxwell, who combined for 1,411 yards rushing. Should the Red Wolves stack the box, QB James Morgan is an NFL prospect who has hit 62% of his passes with a 39-10 TD/INT ratio in two seasons. Butch Davis is 6-3 in bowl games, and Blake Anderson is 1-4.
(7:30 p.m. Dec. 21 on ABC at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas) Steele: Chris Petersen started his head-coaching career at Boise State in 2006 and was there until 2014, when he left for Washington. Boise State should have both talented QBs (Hank Bachmeier and Jaylon Henderson) available. The Broncos' defense is led by defensive end Curtis Weaver (13.5 sacks), and the unit held foes to 67 yards per game below their season average. QB Jacob Eason topped 300 yards passing once all season versus FBS foes and will be without his top receiver in tight end Hunter Bryant and left tackle Trey Adams, who are opting to sit this one out. The Huskies are holding opponents to 71 yards per game below their season average. I could make a case for both teams here, so with two solid defenses, I will lean with the under.
Pick: Lean under 49.5 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
(9 p.m. Dec. 21 on ESPN at Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans) Steele: UAB coach Bill Clark took over a team that had not played football for two years and guided it to a bowl game. The Blazers were C-USA champs last season, and this season, with a very inexperienced team, the Blazers got to the C-USA title game. UAB QB Tyler Johnston missed four games, and RB Spencer Brown had five games with two carries or fewer down the stretch. UAB should be healthier for this game, and its defense holds opponents to 294 yards per game. UAB's schedule is 127th in my rankings, but App State has played the 106th-toughest schedule. App State QB Zac Thomas and RB Darrynton Evans are both dynamic, but UAB has some big play WRs in Austin Watkins and Kendall Parham. App State was outgained in four of its wins this year, with a first-down deficit of 106-63. The talent gap is not as large as the spread, and Clark will have his Blazers motivated, while the Mountaineers have a head coach in his first career game.
Pick: UAB +16.5
Kezirian: UAB is arguably the biggest farce this bowl season. The Blazers rank 106th out of 130 in ESPN's Football Power Index and are bowl-eligible only because they've beaten the nation's worst teams. Seven of their eight FBS wins came against opponents that rank in the triple digits of FPI. They also beat Louisiana Tech at home, but the Bulldogs were relegated to a third-string quarterback and lost by six points in Birmingham. FPI ranks Conference-USA dead last among all 10 FBS conferences. The eight bowl-eligible schools are misleading.
Meanwhile, the Blazers face a ranked App State squad that sits 30th in FPI. It is a solid team that won at both North Carolina and South Carolina, and its lone loss came against a triple-option offense (Georgia Southern) in windy conditions. The Mountaineers did lose head coach Eliah Drinkwitz to Missouri, but the school promoted offensive line coach Shawn Clark to head coach. He is not the interim coach, so that bodes well for stability and avoiding potential distractions.
It's a big number, but App State was 5-4 ATS this season when favored by double digits, so the Mountaineers can certainly handle it. I have faith in a blowout, much like we saw in UAB's 49-6 loss in its conference title game.
Pick: App State -16.5 Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
(2:30 p.m. Dec. 23 on ESPN at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida) Steele: UCF was 13-0 in 2017 and 12-0 last season, coming up short versus LSU in the Fiesta Bowl. This season, the Knights are 9-3 and playing in the Gasparilla Bowl, and they could be in for a letdown. However, UCF could come out with a vengeance in nearby Tampa and make a statement. QB Dillon Gabriel had more TD passes (27) than McKenzie Milton did last season (25). UCF has a significant edge on offense, with plenty of explosive playmakers, and the Knights were No. 4 in the country averaging 537 yards per game. Marshall comes in No. 73 in that category, averaging 397 yards. Marshall was on course for the C-USA title game but lost to Charlotte and finished 7-1 in C-USA play. UCF is the stronger team and should win this game, but I am leaning with the 'dog here, as Marshall is 10-3 ATS the past 13 times it has been an underdog, and the Knights are on a 2-7 ATS run overall. Marshall head coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 straight-up and ATS in bowls.
(8 p.m. Dec. 24 on ESPN at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu) Steele: Most bowls have a split crowd, but Hawai'i will be playing in its home stadium. BYU QB Zach Wilson went 18-of-18 passing in a 49-18 bowl win last season. Wilson missed four games midseason but has returned to form. BYU was the only team in the country to open with four Power 5 opponents and pulled upsets of Tennessee and USC. Hawai'i lost twice at Boise, including in the Mountain West title game. BYU beat that same Boise team, but it was against a backup QB. Hawai'i is 4-4 straight-up and 3-5 ATS in this bowl. Hawai'i went to the run-and-shoot, and head coach Nick Rolovich goes with the hot hand at QB between Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro. In its last six regular-season games, Hawai'i averaged 188 yards per game rushing, and the offensive line allowed just 22 sacks on 588 pass attempts. BYU's defense has recorded just 12 sacks. Hawai'i beat a pair of Pac-12 teams at home this season, and BYU is just 1-5 as a favorite this season.
Pick: Lean Hawai'i +1.5
Kezirian: Who doesn't love betting the Hawai'i Bowl? It is an "island game" (pun intended), serving as your lone college football action on Christmas Eve. On that merit alone, it often finds a way into your betting portfolio, but I still think there is value on BYU's offense. The Hawai'i defense ranks 103rd out of 130 schools in defensive efficiency. The Warriors played better down the stretch, but I am going to chalk that up to facing weak offenses. Their final three regular-season opponents (UNLV, San Diego State and Army) have offensive efficiency that ranks worse than 90th. This is still a defensive unit that can get torched by BYU. I also think Hawai'i should score and considered the game total over, but I am slightly more confident in isolating BYU's team total. There is a chance that BYU's physicality could bother Hawai'i, much like we saw Boise State do in the Mountain West title game when the Warriors mustered only 10 points.
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Best bets for early slate of college football bowl games 🏈
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