[stevenash]

This is just my opinion but that total seems to be 8 to 10 points off.
I’m not overthinking this, both teams can score, I’m sending in over 41.5 now.

[Buckandadime]

I initially thought that maybe there was snow/bitter cold in the forecast..
Low 50's and rain..
That is an awfully low #..
Good luck Nasher..

[jjgold]

Army terrible this year

[mpaschal34]

Seems this thread comes up almost every year and I say to be cautious. I think the last 7 games have gone under (none of them scoring over 41 points). I don’t have the exact history, but it’s something like 12 of the last 13 has gone under.

Yes these teams can score....but they also know each other’s offense pretty well. So they know how to defend it as well. History will show, there are a lot of long drives that eat a lot of clock since they are always running.

This could be an outlier year....but I wouldn’t count on it.

[jjgold]

If you think the line is off by 10 points how come you don’t put 20,000 on it?

[Tanko]

Historically, its kind of remarkable how under this game has been.
Hasn't been close (within a TD) to the O/U since 2010.

[leetreaper]

21-17 Final.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

7 in a row and 11 of 13 have been 41 or less and both teams love to run the ball a ton, which shortens the game. Don't take the bait; under is the play.

[Easy-Rider 66]

A turnover here or there and it may go over. May tease game to over GL Nasher.

[stevenash]

If you think the line is off by 10 points how come you don’t put 20,000 on it?

Because I don’t bet 20k on anything.
I might put 10k on the sun rising in the east tomorrow but that’s pretty much it.

This is why you’re a broke fuk dik Gold and I’m not.
I manage my cash.

Now run along.

[stevenash]

7 in a row and 11 of 13 have been 41 or less and both teams love to run the ball a ton, which shortens the game. Don't take the bait; under is the play.

I understand what you are saying but a result from say 2012 has no bearing on a result of a game being played in 2019.

[gojetsgomoxies]

as mentioned, HUGE UNDER game......... i think it's been under every year since 2006.... most years haven't been close to OVER.

the O/U has come down the last few years. but even that hasn't been enough to get close to an OVER.

what makes this an UNDER?..... 2 teams that run the ball almost all the time. eat up huge amounts of clock with long drives. 4 down football too (i.e. they plan for it being 4th and 3 and then go for it successfully). the teams D understand defending the option as they see it every day.

what is different this year? navy is higher scoring than in the past and better D. but still it's almost exclusively running the ball. they did have some good passing moments in 2019 but it's still 85% running plays.

so i'd say UNDER is still semi-obvious pick....... sagarin has total at 56. so good argument for over. he doesn't model the actual game though (i don't think), only power rating stats.

[DrunkHorseplayer]

I understand what you are saying but a result from say 2012 has no bearing on a result of a game being played in 2019.

I agree but these teams still run the same types of offense, which is very conducive to under. Good luck whichever way you go.

[Renegades]

Seems this thread comes up almost every year and I say to be cautious. I think the last 7 games have gone under (none of them scoring over 41 points). I don’t have the exact history, but it’s something like 12 of the last 13 has gone under.

Yes these teams can score....but they also know each other’s offense pretty well. So they know how to defend it as well. History will show, there are a lot of long drives that eat a lot of clock since they are always running.

This could be an outlier year....but I wouldn’t count on it.

Yep it goes under every year. Army has 0 threat of the pass so once the fullback dive gets stopped...and it always does because navy knows exactly what they want to do...then army has no other options. At least navy has integrated some semblance of a passing attack

[LT Profits]

Aren't service academy UNDERS like 101-1 the last 102 games?

[gojetsgomoxies]

I understand what you are saying but a result from say 2012 has no bearing on a result of a game being played in 2019.

but why go OVER on something that has gone UNDER forever?

of course, if you apply some past scores to 42 total, then i assume some (many?) would have gone OVER.

i am curious about the scores when the spread was fairly high like this year

[mpaschal34]

Navy has had some high scoring teams in the recent past. Yet this game always seems to be about ball control.

Two recent events kept the scoring lower...

1. The massive snow game from a few years ago.
2. The year Navy played in the AAC championship game, they lost both their starting QB and their best RB (oddly on the same play). That was the week before the Army/Navy game.

[Renegades]

Look at air force vs army from earlier in the year. Army started the game with an 11 minute drive for 0 pts. 0!!!! They ran 8 plays from inside the 10 and didnt get in. If I didnt see it with my own eyes I wouldnt have believed it.

Thats what happens in the service academy games. Those option runs that gash most defenses do not work when playing each other. You have to be able to pass a little to loosen up the defense. Remember Keenan Reynolds?! Why do you think navy was so successful during his career. He could complete a pass. Army cannot.

[Buckandadime]

Aren't service academy UNDERS like 101-1 the last 102 games?

AF/Navy went over 46.5 this year..

[gojetsgomoxies]

recent games (6-7 years) would have been comfortable UNDER's on 42 point total, except for one push (can't remember exactly, but very close to push)

[Buckandadime]

Totals this year
Army 5-5-1
Navy 7-4

[Renegades]

AF/Navy went over 46.5 this year..

See my point. Air Force can pass a little. Same with navy. Army cannot. The army games that go over are when they play teams they can bludgeon in the run game and when their opponent has speed on offense and throws a lot. Army is solid vs the run but if you have speed receivers and a good passing game you can light them up

[LT Profits]

AF/Navy went over 46.5 this year..

1-1 this year, AF/Army went went Under

[LT Profits]

Aren't service academy UNDERS like 101-1 the last 102 games?

Under 34-9-1 since 2005

[trytrytry]

easy under

[Buckandadime]

So with the recent history of this game(L 10 games of the series, 0-10 O/U) the under is the play but if you look at it from the recent history of both teams this year (L5 games each, 7-2 O/U) the over seems to be the play..
This seems to be quite the conundrum..

[stevenash]

Look at air force vs army from earlier in the year. Army started the game with an 11 minute drive for 0 pts. 0!!!! They ran 8 plays from inside the 10 and didnt get in. If I didnt see it with my own eyes I wouldnt have believed it.


Thats what happens in the service academy games. Those option runs that gash most defenses do not work when playing each other. You have to be able to pass a little to loosen up the defense. Remember Keenan Reynolds?! Why do you think navy was so successful during his career. He could complete a pass. Army cannot.

Yes, Hoskins can not complete a pass, but Perry can.
Coming from a Navy family I pay attention to Navy football on a weekly basis, those who do not think Navy is still all run all the time, they are not.

Middies are a complete offensive package who I think can hang a 31 burger (plus) on Army.
Past results have no influence on my decision here. I seriously think Navy scores early and often.
And to those who don’t think so, fine, fade my ass.

And no, there isn’t a team total posted yet but if the game line is 10.5 and the total is 41.5 than more than likely the team total points for Navy would be 26 (26 Navy - 15.5 Army) Basic math says 26 + 15.5 = 41.5 which is the game betting total, 26 - 15.5 = 10.5 which is the game line.

If the team total is indeed 26 then I will bet that over for 50 or 100 because that’s what I bet Gold you bald headed miserable half a hump prick ‘ya, not 20k.

[jjgold]

I love these guys that think lines are wrong

Nothing is every wrong

[stevenash]

Nothing is every wrong

Except your brain.

[Buckandadime]

I love these guys that think lines are wrong

Nothing is every wrong

Not gonna do any research but a quick scan of my brain says that Denver/Houston line yesterday was wrong..

[stevenash]

I think it’s time to take a long extended break from SBR.

You got a bald headed fuk defending Bear who is detrimental in two ways to these boards, he’s driving away good posters with countless inane threads while at the same time preventing potential new members from joining due to the inane content a potential new member reads before deciding he’s not going to spend minute or dollar one here.

Yet posters like Bear get coddled by mods like Gold.

[Tanko]

Nasher...
I hope its a 70+ pt game. Good luck.

[Renegades]

Yes, Hoskins can not complete a pass, but Perry can.
Coming from a Navy family I pay attention to Navy football on a weekly basis, those who do not think Navy is still all run all the time, they are not.

Middies are a complete offensive package who I think can hang a 31 burger (plus) on Army.
Past results have no influence on my decision here. I seriously think Navy scores early and often.
And to those who don’t think so, fine, fade my ass.

And no, there isn’t a team total posted yet but if the game line is 10.5 and the total is 41.5 than more than likely the team total points for Navy would be 26 (26 Navy - 15.5 Army) Basic math says 26 + 15.5 = 41.5 which is the game betting total, 26 - 15.5 = 10.5 which is the game line.

If the team total is indeed 26 then I will bet that over for 50 or 100 because that’s what I bet Gold you bald headed miserable half a hump prick ‘ya, not 20k.

I agree with you on Navy. I dont trust army to score enough though. Thats my fear. Army cannot pass at all and they are not going to get explosive run plays vs navy like they do vs other teams.

[Biff41]

Army terrible this year

Is Army terrible on offense or defense? Nasher may have a good point.

[Biff41]

Odds on Navy are already at -10.5. If they only throw up a kiddie burger even if Army comes in weak this is a tough one to bet. Maybe the Over if weather report is good.