[Hman]

Best bets for college football's conference title games

ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)


Every Thursday during the season, Bill Connelly, Doug Kezirian, Preston Johnson and Phil Steele will provide their top plays across the college football landscape.


Here are their best bets for the final full week of the college football season:


Season ATS records:
Connelly record: 30-16-2 (1-4 last week)
Steele record: 31-41-1 (2-3 last week)
Johnson record: 35-25-1 (2-2 last week)
Kezirian record: 46-36-1 (1-2 last week)


Note: Lines displayed are Caesars Sportsbook lines as of Wednesday night.
Saturday's games


Cincinnati Bearcats at Memphis Tigers (-9)

Connelly: SP+ has loved Memphis all year and has been mostly right for doing so -- it is 6-3-1 picking against the mid-week spread over the last 10 games and missed last week's line by just one point.


Last week's game was against Cincinnati, though, and the result (a 34-24 Memphis win against Cincy's backup QB) was close enough that this week's line is a little tighter: The Tigers are -9 as opposed to last week's -11 or so.


SP+ has only grown more defiant, though. Memphis' efficiency advantage last week (and the fact that Cincinnati actually passed better with its backup QB than with Desmond Ridder) suggested that the game wasn't far from a Memphis blowout. After projecting a 13.9-point UM win last week, it's projecting 15.4 this week. Even if we give the Bearcats a Ridder boost (they could run the ball better this time), that's still a decent cushion. Let's take the Tigers once more!


Pick: Memphis -9



LSU Tigers (-7) vs. Georgia Bulldogs

in Atlanta
Connelly: One of Georgia's top three receivers (Lawrence Cager) is out, and another (George Pickens) is suspended for the first half. Star rusher D'Andre Swift is trying to shake off a shoulder injury. So why does SP+ project a really tight game (LSU 29-26), and why am I backing it up with a Best Bet pick? Defense and special teams, basically.


Georgia hasn't allowed more than 20 points in a game all season. The Dawgs have faced four SP+ top 25 teams and allowed an average of 15 points per game. LSU will almost certainly top that, but Georgia's old-school approach -- slow the game to a crawl by running the ball and working the clock, make sure your defense doesn't face many possessions, swallow up the opponent's go-to offensive tendencies -- has them 11-1 and one minor upset away from a second College Football Playoff appearance.


Could LSU's defense (which is coming off its best performance of the season) swallow up Georgia's run game, force the Dawgs into a Plan B (if they have one), and eventually pull away? Absolutely. But Auburn nearly knocked off LSU with similarly strong defensive play, and even without a full-strength Swift, UGA has a much better run game than AU. A better defense, too, for that matter. This could absolutely be a dogfight until the end.


Pick: Georgia +7



Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Central Michigan Chippewas (-7)

in Detroit
Steele: Last week Miami led 27-14 at Ball State at the half, but with numerous players going down with injuries in the game (including QB Brett Gabbert), coach Chuck Martin decided to play mostly backups in the second half and was outscored 27-0 after halftime. The RedHawks clinched the MAC East two weeks ago and only beat lowly Akron by three points that week, so they enter with zero momentum. The defenses are close, but Central Michigan has a significant edge of offense with Tennessee transfer QB Quinten Dormady and two potential 1,000-yard rushers in Jonathan Ward and Kobe Lewis. Central played in the much tougher division in the MAC and should also have the crowd edge with this game in Detroit.


ATS pick: Central Michigan -7



UAB Blazers at Florida Atlantic Owls (-7.5)

Steele: In Lane Kiffin's two bowl seasons with FAU, he is 18-6-1 ATS with his wins by 24.1 PPG. Oklahoma transfer QB Chris Robison has been much improved this year, hitting 62 percent of his passes with a 22-5 ratio. Mackey Award finalist TE Harrison Bryant leads the team with 965 receiving yards and Alabama transfer BJ Emmons has rushed for 124 yards the last two weeks since returning from injury. UAB outgains foes by 161 yards per game at home but by just 27 yards per game on the road. UAB has taken on the weakest schedule in the country while two of FAU's losses have been to Ohio State and UCF. The Blazers have faced three bowl teams on the road this year and lost those by 21.7 PPG.


ATS pick: Florida Atlantic -7.5



Virginia Cavaliers at Clemson Tigers (-28.5)


in Charlotte


Steele: This seems like a lot of points for a title game, but Clemson is the class of the ACC. The Tigers have one of the top offensive lines in the country, a dangerous set of receivers and one of the nation's top running backs in Travis Etienne (8.3 yards per carry). Trevor Lawrence has a 16-0 ratio in the last five games and takes on a banged-up Cavaliers secondary that has allowed 302 yards per game passing the previous four weeks. The Clemson D is No. 1 in the country holding foes to 178 yards per game below their season average and know the key to stopping Virginia's offense is to stop QB Bryce Perkins, who is their leading rusher.


Virginia is coming ff a tough comeback win against their rival that had beaten them 15 straight times and also needed a win to wrap up the Coastal, and that game went to the final seconds. Clemson coasted versus rival South Carolina 38-3, and the Tigers are 9-2 ATS versus FBS foes this year.


ATS pick: Clemson -28.5


Kezirian: Only one play for me and it's a ridiculous spread ... or is it? You don't want to make a habit of laying more than four touchdowns in a conference championship game, but the ACC is an outlier. I think Clemson is the nation's best team and the conference is incredibly weak.




The Tigers have covered six straight against FBS opponents with a scoring margin of at least 30 points in every one. That stat - and Dabo Swinney -- gives me more confidence to lay this kind of lumber. Swinney has demonstrated a willingness to run up the score, and the defending champs are eyeing the top overall seed in the CFP.


On top of this, Virginia is extremely limited on offense. The Cavaliers rank 50th in offensive efficiency and I have minimal faith that Bryce Perkins (71st with a 132.6 QBR) can succeed against a Clemson defense that leads the nation in efficiency. The 'Hoos just beat Virginia Tech in their rivalry game, snapping a streak of 15 straight losses the Commonwealth Cup series, so it's also a bit of a flat spot for them.



ATS pick: Clemson -28.5

[CanuckG]

Like ULL and Georgia

[BigdaddyQH]

Some things just never change. Steele will finish below .500 AGAIN, someting he does quite regularly. Fading this phony would have netted you a nice 56.7%. Of course, Steele thinks that the Pope is Jewish, so what else can you expect from this loser?

[jjgold]

Memphis game strange

Cincy banged up

Baylor ML

[BigdaddyQH]

JJ. As usual, you are dead wrong about Baylor. If you had any money, you would be throwing it away, but since you do not, you will lose more air. Why is the Memphis game strange? They defeated this same team at the same stadium last week by 10 points and are now favored by 9 1/2. That seems logical to me.

[ZIPPER HEAD]

JJ. As usual, you are dead wrong about Baylor. If you had any money, you would be throwing it away, but since you do not, you will lose more air. Why is the Memphis game strange? They defeated this same team at the same stadium last week by 10 points and are now favored by 9 1/2. That seems logical to me.

Tongue punch my fart box you molester

[ElJefe305]

LSU by 14+

[gojetsgomoxies]

connelly with a 1-4 ATS record last week.... i wonder if capping early vs. late in the season makes a big difference. (i understand one week = small sample size)... also, rivalry week plays differently (i do find the rivalry weak underdog worked well years ago, but not so well recently. i haven't checked)

i can't believe miami-ohio quasi-tanked a game to stay fresh for the conference championship... you'd think in CF that final record means alot. whereas nfl, sitting players final week makes more sense)..

didn't know CM has a stud transfer QB... that explains quite a bit.

[Renegades]

C Mich offense is really really good. I watched them a few times this year

[gojetsgomoxies]

connelly headed for 0-2......... steele is 1-1 with clemson to come.

steele/connelly record is assuming georgia and memphis are losers ATS