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you are right most are scammers
but the overunderexpert detail over 2382 days with each pick including losing months
no b.s. guy lists losing over 30 days +
also every day can show an email header date and time stamped its real
for those who go take the through each day including the losing months no further explanation is necessary
for those who dont none would suffice
When I look this thread, I realize once again why bookmakers are still in business. Because most people are still living in stone age; discussing martingale and cashout strategies, tailing so-called hot cappers.
Guys, I will tell you the ULTIMATE system. The best system ever. This is called VALUE BETTING. Stoke City is playing versus Reading and Stoke City odds change from -110 to -150. Well, if you can grab Stoke City at -110, you will make profit over long haul. Maybe Stoke City doesn't win that day. It doesn't matter. You will win over long haul because you're picking a value price. Don't waste your time with stupid systems please. Otherwise, sports betting will be unbeatable for you all your life.
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Sawyer i respect you as a capper and i agree that value betting sounds like a great way to stay in the green but you left out the part that all value bettors leave out when extolling the virtues of value betting. How do we predict a player injury, line-up change or any other line moving event. How do we become fortune tellers? If you really want to show the forum that value betting is the way to go simply list a few examples of games that you were able to anticipate the shift and how. This would eliminate some of the mystery behind your approach and truly help a great deal of us become better bettors. Really interested to hear your response...Originally Posted by Sawyer
P.S. Just to be clear. I am not asking how to tell a line is slightly off. This no doubt comes with experience. I am specifically asking about the example you give. Movement from -110 to -150 usually occurs from an event like the ones I have listed above. Again, how do you foresee those events?
Last edited by SoccerWatch; 02-12-20 at 10:47 AM.
I might be using your value betting strategy already. I won my Chiefs winning the super bowl +650 by placing a bet 6 months early and my Trump winning the 2020 presidential election at +250 by placing a bet 2 years early. My bets are based on predicting the distant future. When these hits I will make large profit from distant future betting while the public bets at close future betting.
Always remember the time value of money. Your money is tied up for the duration of each bet, while a daily bettor can compound.
Im not Sawyer but i also do valuebetting, betting on dropping odds, whether on prematch or live. For me, it all comes from experience. Even doing this on asia(mostly live but sometimes prematch also). Most of the time you just need to be fast. When info is released(like injury), then for a big game with ok limits, market would not drop instantly but it takes some time. So you have to be fast to get this info and to bet on it. I could give you example from day ago. Odds: decimal, Game is Llaneros de Guanare FC v Liverpool FC Montevideo. I spotted good action 3-4h before game on ht over 1.5 and ht away win, causing odds to drop from 2.8 for away ht win to 2.4 ors. So i noticed that pinnacle starting odds for ht over 1 were 2.2(this is pure opening which means bad limits) and the time when i went to pinnacle, the ht over 1 goal line odds were 1.98 with limits about few hundred. So i staked from 1.98 til 1.8 and predicted that the closing line would be around 1.5-1.6 which were the odds it ended on dafabet(pinnacle removed the market approx 1h before game). Also i did this on local bookies at odds 2.2, 2.1 etc. So basically with valuebetting, like it is with stock trading, you just follow the trend. This is true, that most of the time, you cant get info faster than everyone else, especially on big games. You just have to follow the trend. On smaller games, lets say local 3rd division soccer game, you can get info that 3 key players from fav. are missing therefore betting against the fav but if its not in asia then doing this on soft bookies requires you to have a good amount of soft bookies.... In live betting, it is of course a bit different and getting value there requires good prematch knowledge about teams, compared with live performance and odds movements on those games. Also experience.
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Thanks for the reply C. This definitely helps me to better understand the value system. As a noob, I assumed that the books would adjust their lines before you the bettor could swoop in. It is encouraging to see that this is not the case. I will definitely put more time into watching the lines from the open. Have a good weekend!!
Most importantly, you have to bet on odds which you think have value. Ones goal is to get the highest possible odds, does not matter if its 1 day before match or 1hour. So by keeping that in mind, you should get be in profit sooner or later.Thanks for the reply C. This definitely helps me to better understand the value system. As a noob, I assumed that the books would adjust their lines before you the bettor could swoop in. It is encouraging to see that this is not the case. I will definitely put more time into watching the lines from the open. Have a good weekend!!
And no, sharp books do not adjust the lines automatically once info changes. On big games, perhaps, i do not know. But on smaller games, they can take the hit and then recover without realising that the ones who made the hit, know that current line is wrong. If you want to beat the asia, i would suggest to scoup info by yourself or get some good contacts who do not mind sharing the info with you. But most important is to learn the craft, the markets you bet and how the odds move.
Good luck mate!
Actually, you don't have to foresee these events. How you can tell a line is off? Simple, just look Pinnacle.
Pinnacle is far from perfect. They open a tennis player at 2.5/+150 and close at 1.5/-200 because the market disagrees. Sometimes the reason is as simple as "the guy played really good in the previous game".
Last edited by Gaze73; 02-15-20 at 10:45 AM.
Please elaborate. What do you mean just look at pinnacle? I have never used the value approach but i believe it has merit.
You know-nothings have a million different approaches to a very simple question. Yes it is beatable IF you know what you are doing. The problem with you guys is that NONE OF YOU know what you are doing.
QH , your Shtick is well past the expiration date
...
Last edited by Sam Odom; 02-16-20 at 10:27 AM.
bias lines with good odds happens every day, can be explained so many ways getting a headache reading this stuff
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It means if ur local bookmaker has odds for home team win 2 and pinnacle has 1.8(decimal)then it is a clear value. Or what others call, line shopping.I would prefer finding value on pinnacle(asians) rather than soft bookies simply because asians do not limit valuebettors same way as soft bookies do.
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Okay i see what you mean. Thanks again dude!
Sawyer marry me and give me your locks daily
Impossible to make any money long term from gambling. Don't be morons people.
Not impossible but keeps getting harder yes. Especially in europe where limits before were much lower than in US.
But hard is good, it means more people will give up meaning more cake for hard workers
If it was impossible, it couldn't exist. When I bet on Kansas State first half +2.5, the sportsbook is betting they won't cover --and they have about a 50% chance of losing that bet, so it absolutely is a gamble on their part. Yet the sports books do make lots of money. Because they are only risking $1 to win $1.10. They have an advantage. Which means only making bets with an advantage (like sportsbooks or casinos do), is a way to make money.
if you bet $100 on 100 games per game at -110 odds you start out 0-10
1 in 1 / 2^10 = 1 in 1024 = 0.098%
The money and the total games bet is completely irrelevant. But going 0-10 at any point in those 100 games is 8.5%
Last edited by TommieGunshot; 02-18-20 at 07:12 AM.
Yes, it is beatable. But it is very difficult. I doubt that very many people are ahead long term. No doubt that there are some.
Consider casino games. Something like craps has a relatively high return for players, but still less than 1.00. Long term (like infinity), everyone would lose. But in real life some would be ahead based on random occurrences. I suspect if you had a distribution curve on net profits by person, the bulk of the curve would be negative. However there would be some positives in the tail.
The same would apply to sports betting. The real question is "Are any of the people in the positive tail there because of skill?".
yes, in the long run nobody wins. when I say nobody I will give a caveat of maybe 1% but I think 1% is probably too high. the people who tell you they win tell them to post their plays for 5 or 6 months.
nobody wins in the long run. if you play sports before you die you will be in the red. don't listen to the clowns who will disagree with me because they don't know. I do know, nobody wins--period.
Depends on volume. You can lose money over 2000 bets even with good +EV, just from natural variance.
yeah, well no kidding. If you make one super bowl bet in your life and you win you are a winner. I don't believe that is the spirit of the question. I think the question being asked means can a player after years and decades of playing sports end up a winner. My answer is a absolute no with a very very small caveat, probably less than 1%.
I have been in this game longer than most of you are alive, I have booked for over two decades. when the bookie tells you I am the only bookie who losses he is lying. even stupid bookies win, even bookies who make mistakes win. the player that wins at the end of a lifetime is extremely rare. these clowns who tell you they are lifetime winners are liars. Almost all of them.
to me this is an evident observation. would business and states spend hundreds of millions of dollars just to get sports action if they are going to lose. Oh, of course they have losing days, they even have losing weeks, but at the end of the year and every year they are in the black.
and big daddy whatever his name is has not one clue about anything. I have never read anything that makes sense from that clown. he is a BS artist in all his glory.
-105 lines are the way
Really bad that its so hard in US. In Europe, if you have unlimited stream of soft bookie accounts, very easy to make money and win. Simply by taking value from soft side and you will probably have atleast 5% roi. Beating Asia, different story because of different playground
My reply was just to the bit about posting a 5/6 month record. That could be a few hundred bets or fewer, ie basically meaningless.
Didn't sharps take down cascade, wsex and betislands?? There are winners out there.....
I wonder how much you can get away with winning at BM or Heritage?? Anyone here gotten the boot after winning too much from them?
too many people play for action and not making money imo.with so many games on tv on a given night it way too easy to bet game after game.2 to 3 games on any given day is all you need.........(ck)
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Risk management by ownership not sharp bettors. If you book more than you can handle, that's on ownership.
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