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It's funny how you guys who are supposedly winning gamblers are doing so in one of the most efficient, highest limit markets (the NFL).
When are you bozos going to realize there are bigger edges to be found in the smaller markets? Ah, but that's not sexy. You want to pick the winner of SNF not what the longest FG will be in it.
Pretend that 5% of gamblers win longterm. What edge is there in that scenario that makes others want any part of the fastest growing phenomenon in American history. Why do we humans including me think its entertaining to lose money to the 1% its nuts. This alone is reason to question the point of our existence. We desire to strive but love to fail.
Either pick a known loser and fade every one if his bets OR limit the amount you bet to lunch money and only bet the plays you love. When you don't care is when you can remove emotion from it and bet with a clear head. Chasing ALWAYS ends negatively. Even if you win the stupid bet of tripling down, you have learned nothing going forward and are doomed until the next cycle repeats itself and you lose that x3 bet. Keep it small so you don't wind up homeless, screw others who joke about your bankroll and keep it as ENTERTAINMENT.
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Sports betting is beatable but people who win over long haul is lesser then %0.1..maybe %0.01.
Last edited by Sawyer; 01-07-20 at 08:45 AM.
I guess fewer than 0.01% of people have an IQ over 107Originally Posted by Sawyer
Its beatable folks. Its simple, but not easy. It's hard because hardly anyone doing it succesfully talks about it. And plenty talk about sports betting, without making any profit actually. So it's difficult for anyone who wants to learn how to do it properly to avoid all the noise. But its doable.
i think people talk different things. Beating asia in longterm is really hard. Especially prematch. Inplay, its easyer to find value but still. Also depends a lot on sports your betting and what leagues youre covering. Have seen guys who bet on scandinavian low league football with few hundred eur limits in asia and have over 20% roi for many years. Have seen guys who bet bigger leagues with avg 100 bets per month and having around 10% roi. It all depends on many factors and talking about whether its overall beatable or not is pointless argumentation because it all depends on many factors. Beating soft bookies like bet365 cant tell its hard. Hard part is to get money in, getting new accounts and you must evolve yourself also. But is it doable beating soft bookies? Definetly. I know guys who do this 6+ years and some even 12+ years focusing only in beating soft bookies. So its not hard, only a lot of hustle.
10% ROI at Asian books seems crazy high to me.
I'd like to hear more on staying alive at soft bookies. How do you keep opening new accounts? I've seen people selling bet365 accounts online but I also heard that a lot of those are scams.
I got my ass kicked on the bowl games this year and glad there are no more left. Otherwise I’d have lost even more $
At least I have a chunk of cash back at Heritage, and thankfully they now count the live wagering towards that.
Of course it is if you just bet straight and not have many weapons in your arsenal Like bonuses, arbs and futures , hedging
i got some secret leagues no one knows about
It's very simple. You have friends, yes?
Are you run out of friends? Well, you have friends of your friends.
Are you run out of friends of friends? Well, you have friend of your friend's friend.
Let's make a conclusion..
Beating softbooks: Possible. Not hard if you're betting value. (Value betting: Picking precious odds in soft bookmaker compared to sharp bookmakers. Example: Dallas -3 is -110 @ Pinnacle and Pinnacle changes Dallas -3 to 6 and you pick Dallas -3 at softbookmaker.
Beating asians: Very challenging. Only sharp betting syndicates and real professionals (very rare) can do this.
With any market, it is easier to beat the earlier you bet. Much more challenging the more you wait which is why there are limits
Closing line? Impossible in an efficient market
sometimes i feel like bill murray in ground hound day, it's the same thing over and over each and every day
good lucks sbr
Last edited by cincinnatikid513; 01-08-20 at 03:26 AM.
Yes most guys in europe atleast buy accounts... mostly from FFF or they have some good account seller. Not allowed by bookies but what you gonna do. 10% Roi in asia means different things. Im not talking about having this roi in games where limits are 10+k. Im talking about games where limits are 200-300. Small games with those teams involved only locals or specialist know about. Those games remain untouched from big syndicates simply because they have no interest to bet on games where limits are so low. For example, Scandinavian U soccer leagues like Allsvenskan Norra, Södra etcm norway u19, finnish and so on.
Again this conclusion is based on assumption that all betting activity in Asia is done with big games/leagues with very high limits. Asia offers a lot of "trash" games also with small limit games(limits like 200-300eur) where there is a lot of value to be found. Im not saying that beating asians is easy, especially when one focuses on big games like UK Premier league, NBA, Super Bowl etc(then its very hard) But when you focus on so called trash leagues then there is value to be found.
Hard to find value on these events with tiny limits. Just bet few times and odds get smashed. +150 can drop to +100 even after 2 bets. It makes things harder for arbers and value hunters. Pinnacle limits for minor leagues were higher in the past. Nowadays, even Pinnacle limits are very short in minor leagues.
This is my point.
Yes Sawyer i totally agree with you about that. SBO Limits on most games i look are 50-150€ while Singbet or others have 200-500. Also pinni, sbo and i guess some few others have reduced limits in broker accounts also making it even harder to bet. Regarding with value, there is value otherwise would not argue about itHave a friend who only bets Scandinavian and sometimes other low leagues in asia only with avg stake 200-400. Yes, those are small stakes but guy makes a bit over 100 bets per month with avg roi 20% so his profits he makes per month in a country where he lives and where avg salary is 1k its pretty ok for him.
It is beatable if you have the edges and odds at various bookies.
Taking the best odds available is key, but that leads to limiting problems and management issues.
Since September I am tracking my picks on public.
With best odds available at closing odds my record is:
705 -633
47.52
But with avg odds or at one bookie alone this profit is nowhere near it, a bit over 10 units.
So timing and shopping for odds is nearly as important as the picks themselves.
If you follow LB yes
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I haven't had a job in about 8 years, I gamble full time have my own place, a new car and no idea what to do next, you have to lose alot of money or everything before u get patience and understand how to gamble, people who think it's impossible yeah you might as well stop because u can't teach anyone how to gamble, u either get it or don't. When u start winning u get to see people are aholes and jealousy is a bitch, your ex's will msg u and beg ( not the hot ones, the single mum's with 3 kids or single mum's with different baby daddys) it's better if u keep it to yourself and don't tell anyone u win alot as even your family and relatives can turn on u and make bs stuff. I just spent 15k on gold since when u pay of your house and car u dunno what to spend your money on and u buy stupid shit, I have over 25k off unclaimed winning bets in my wallet in case I need to go really big on a bet and don't have to spend all day putting 50, 100 notes in the machine which can be annoying if u have a fukked up note as the tab machine can lock up your money while the alarm goes off wasting your time while people stare at u, can prove have 25k in unclaimed winning tickets by taking photo then scan all tickets into 1 with the exact amount and date of day scan, I keep nearly all my winning tickets as paranoid, the tab has probably the shiitest odds out of all books but once u win regularly u don't give a shit about .05 to .1 difference. I will never work again, I feel sorry for people who work hard for jackshit money that I can make in 1 bet, to people who will give me shit and say I air bet, my life is pretty sweet https://imgur.com/a/fIXdcd6
We know you don’t airbet
Where do you live?
How
Many books?
Do you take bonuses ?? Arb?
i hope those arent your unclaimed tickets
I suggest you to learn how to use paragraph when writing.
I think record keeping is a must. Know what you are good at and what you are not. For instance, I'd like to think I know how to cape College Basketball but reality through record keeping tells me I cannot thus I will lower my bet size significantly. Since gambling is legal in my State now, I will try my hand in MLB this upcoming season as I've never given this sport a serious run.
Truly a helpful suggestion
JJ, like you said and I quoted, even if you get a guy backed by the persian outfit of SoCal, that allows 50k wagers ...
if you spot play or play like 6-10 times a year, they cut you off.
They want volume players = losers. Correct?
The volume players I know hit early lines all at the same time on ppH books so that lines can't be adjusted. There's always a catch, it's never JUST picking winners. It's picking winners at a price that's key.
Yeah I know a worker can enter the numbers and steal the ticket
Cool story bro
i'd say meaningful $ volume on a decent number of games at game time odds and -110 (equiv to 5% commission?) is very tough to win consistently
note, on the 5% commission, i assume winner and loser each pay it...... i know we've had this debate many times before as to who pays commish...... i'd say either both winner and loser pay OR winner pays and everyone runs reasonably close to 50/50 long-term. so it's approx 5% commish.
Yeah man everyone loses gambling, idiot
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