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Best bets for Deontay Wilder-Luis Ortiz 🥊
Best bets for Deontay Wilder-Luis Ortiz
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Rematches, in the main, are very eagerly awaited, especially in the heavyweight division. But this weekend sees a rematch taking place in Las Vegas that has generally been greeted with a feeling of disdain in the fight game. This rematch sees a WBC heavyweight title clash between 34-year-old champion Deontay Wilder and 40-year-old Luis Ortiz.
Why is everyone feeling so underwhelmed when the first encounter between these two fighters was a good one? To many, Wilder (41-0-1, 40 KOs) has still not faced the very best contenders in the division, even though he has been the WBC belt holder for nearly five years. Long-term mandatory challengers have been made to wait, and the only defense Wilder has made that most fight insiders believe to be meaningful is the draw against Tyson Fury nearly a year ago -- a fight where many believe he got favorable scores from two of the three judges.
However, let's concentrate on what Wilder has done. He has stopped his opponents in all but two of his fights, and he has knocked down every single opponent he has faced. The power of the Wilder right hand is the key to every fight he has or will participate in, and at no time can that be dismissed.
Ortiz (31-1, 26 KOs) has a record that on the surface shouldn't be underestimated. However, the Cuban has never beaten anyone inside the top 10 in the world rankings. In his only contest against a top-10 opponent, he was stopped in 10 rounds by Wilder 20 months ago after boxing well and causing Wilder problems. Add in the doubts around his actual age (there are many who believe he is older) and it is difficult to make a case for him reversing the result this time around. A big right hand landing flush from the Cuban, though, could still make it happen.
The tale of the tape shows that both fighters are big men. At 6-foot-7, Wilder is 3 inches taller than Ortiz, and Wilder's 83-inch reach will see him enjoy an advantage of 5 inches. Wilder has improved since that night in March 2018 when he emerged victorious, and he will surely be looking to have more control of the fight and use his advantages to control the distance and make it difficult for Ortiz to establish any kind of foothold.
Both men have an extensive history of early stoppage wins. Thirty of Wilder's 40 stoppage wins have come inside three rounds, as have 15 of the 26 stoppage victories by Ortiz. History also shows that when a champion has stopped an opponent previously, he generally stops the same opponent faster in the rematch. Joe Louis did this with Billy Conn, Rocky Marciano with Jersey Joe Walcott, and Mike Tyson with Frank Bruno. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if that happens on this occasion and therefore will be recommending a play on the under in the total rounds market.
Pick: A small play under 6.5 rounds at -125 or better or under 5.5 rounds at -105 or better.
What do the industry insiders/experts say?
"As far as Wilder-Ortiz 2 goes, I'm picking Wilder. The new and conditioned Ortiz is nice to see, but old habits die hard. I don't see this new look undoing a career long style. Nothing can truly prepare you for when Wilder's right hand lands so I am going Wilder by late round stoppage."
-- Amy Green, writer for boxingscene.com and elector for the Women's Boxing Hall of Fame
"Wilder's 10% better now and will be more confident than in the first fight, and Ortiz is a year older, and not 40 years old, but very likely much older. Ortiz will get stopped earlier this time."
-- Rick Glaser, international boxing agent, broker and consultant
"The two men are going in opposite directions now. Ortiz at 40 years maybe older left a piece of himself in the ring in the first fight; as close as he came, he just came up short. Wilder grew from that experience. it really forged him into a better fighter and proved he can take it as well as give it. I don't see this fight being on the level of the first encounter. Wilder wins more one-sided and closes the show earlier."
-- Danny "Mac" McGarvie, Canadian matchmaker
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Originally Posted by jjgold
