Finals champ? MVP? 29 NBA bets we like for 2019-20
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The NBA season is already upon us. The action kicks off with a Tuesday doubleheader featuring the Pelicans visiting the defending champion Raptors, followed by the new-look Lakers and Clippers. There is a full slate of games Wednesday.
With the offseason over (if there really is one with all the activity going on), it's a good time to look at some futures that might be worth a wager heading into the 2019-20 season.
Jordan Schultz, Joe Fortenbaugh, Doug Kezirian and Preston Johnson offer some of their best values on the board.
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. NBA title bets
Fortenbaugh: The Sixers have eclipsed 50 victories in each of the past two seasons and no longer have to worry about Kawhi Leonard and the Toronto Raptors, who sent them packing with a ridiculous Game 7 buzzer beater in last spring's Eastern Conference semifinals. JJ Redick's defection to New Orleans will sting, but the arrivals of Al Horford and Josh Richardson give Philly the longest and rangiest roster in the East. Don't be the least bit surprised if Ben Simmons busts loose in Year 3.
Johnson: For starters, the 76ers unexpectedly turned Jimmy Butler into Horford and Richardson. They were able to resign Tobias Harris, whom they traded for midseason, and they're arguably deeper and have more upside with second-year player Zhaire Smith healthy and rookie Matisse Thybulle making an immediate impact on the defensive end. They were a miracle Kawhi bounce in Game 7 from potentially beating the NBA champs a year ago anyway. The Eastern Conference is a two-team race between the Bucks and the Sixers, and I give Philadelphia the slight edge to advance. Plus, their price is better.
Fortenbaugh: The Nuggets finished first in the NBA in home wins (34) and fourth in overall regular-season victories (54) last season en route to gaining extraordinarily valuable playoff experience via not one, but two Game 7s. The Denver roster features a legitimate MVP candidate in Nikola Jokic, was upgraded in July's trade with Oklahoma City for underrated forward Jerami Grant and will benefit greatly as stud guard Jamal Murray (now in Year 4) continues to make significant strides developing his game. With the Golden State dynasty on the rocks, I'm looking for reasons to bet on anybody but the favorites in the Western Conference.
Johnson: I project the Rockets to be the best team in the Western Conference this year. I think the high-variance approach to adding a player like Russell Westbrook to the roster is sound. It could absolutely be a train wreck, but it might also put them over the top, which is the type of situation we are looking for when making a bet priced as high as 12-1.
Westbrook's explosiveness in transition and ability to attack the basket are one of a kind. Houston already plays an analytically savvy brand of basketball, and now two of the past three MVPs are running on the same team. The Warriors have been their nemesis in the playoffs, but Golden State will be taking a drastic step back in regards to viable title contention. It's now or never for this iteration of the Rockets, and at these odds it's worth a bet.
Schultz: Rather quietly, Utah has become one of the most complete teams in the West. Nobody will benefit more from the Mike Conley acquisition than Donovan Mitchell, who no longer has to be the primary playmaker and scorer to close out games. The veteran Conley, per Synergy Sports, ranks as one of the game's premier 3-point shooters, both in spot-up and off-the-dribble situations. He will provide a floor-spacing steadiness well beyond Ricky Rubio's limits. Additionally, I loved general manager Dennis Lindsey's move to sign Jeff Green, along with the addition Bojan Bogdanovic from Indiana as well as sign Quin Snyder to an extension.
Veteran big man Ed Davis, via Portland, is another strong add. He can back up Rudy Gobert and give you 20 hard-fought energy minutes every night. Bottom line: This is easily the most talented roster Quin Snyder has had, and we should expect him to take full advantage. I also like the Jazz over 54.5 wins. Over/under total wins
Kezirian: The Grizzlies are a bad basketball team. They were dead last in scoring last season, 27th in offensive efficiency and lost their best offensive weapon by trading Conley. Rookie Ja Morant will provide some excitement, and Jonas Valanciunas will post respectable numbers, but they won't prove to be the difference between wins and losses. Andre Iguodala figures to resurface with a new team, and this entire situation will reek of a rebuilding effort. Throw in a Western Conference schedule, and The Grind House will officially assume a new identity.
Johnson: This is a 23-win team if they never tank for draft pick position at any point in the season. We know that's inevitable, so this is a bunch of hype around young players (and five power forwards) that are ultimately a few years away. This has slowly become one of my favorite season win totals bets of the year.
Kezirian: Why am I picking a team to improve its win total by more than 50% even after it didn't add a marquee free agent? Because injuries wreaked major havoc on last season's 22-win squad. Zach LaVine, Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr. missed 87 combined games, and the team fired its coach midseason. It was a year full of such disarray that it featured reports of players boycotting practices as well as starting lineups of guys I have never heard of. However, there is reason for legitimate optimism.
Coach Jim Boylen has a new contract, and all reports indicate he has squashed the locker room tension. Denzel Valentine returns after missing the entire season to recover from ankle surgery. Otto Porter Jr. joins the healthy Baby Bulls, after posting impressive numbers following his midseason acquisition. Thaddeus Young is an important veteran signing, particularly after losing Robin Lopez this summer. They're not a good team, but I do think they win at least 34 games, assuming better health.
Schultz: This is hardly a knock on the Pelicans' young roster, but rather it's a realistic view of the Western Conference. New GM David Griffin did a fine job in the draft with Zion Williamson, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Better yet, the pass-first (and second) Lonzo Ball is the ideal lead guard for this offense. Escaping LeBron James' shadow will pay dividends for Brandon Ingram long-term as well. With all its talent, New Orleans can morph from afterthought to monster, even without Anthony Davis.
But the Pelicans must first endure a learning curve extending into the 2020-21 season, not including Zion's absence to start the season, which has knocked this number down. Learning how to win in this league is no easy task. Even though Alvin Gentry's club will secure its fair share of high-profile victories, take the under on this wager.
Schultz: The 39-win Kings narrowly missed the playoffs last season. No team in the West has a better crop of young talent, and we can expect Sacramento to cruise over this number. Point guard De'Aaron Fox (third in most improved player voting) is a blooming star, as is backcourt mate Buddy Hield, who posted a stellar splits last season at 20.7 PPG, 45.8 FG% and 42.7 3PT%. Marvin Bagley III might have been overshadowed by the likes of Luka Doncic and Trae Young, but the former Duke All-American still tallied a healthy 14.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. The West is very tough, but Sacramento has enough horses to win 43-45 games and make its first postseason since 2006 (+260 odds).
Schultz: This number is an insult to an improved Blazers team fresh off a conference finals appearance. Hassan Whiteside is a sensible acquisition as a rim protector and roll man who enters Portland having already established a good relationship with Damian Lillard. Lillard and McCollum comprise arguably the NBA's top backcourt. They will be buoyed by the re-signing of Rodney Hood and first-round draft choice Nassir Little as an instant energy source and defensive ace off the bench. Portland surpassing the 50-win barrier is a fine assumption to thicken your wallet.
Fortenbaugh: Golden State's win total opened north of 50 but has been plummeting ever since -- and for good reason. Durant now cashes checks courtesy of the Brooklyn Nets and Klay Thompson (ACL) will be out until after the All-Star break, which means the best-case scenario features him in the mix for just 27 games.
As for the current roster, Stephen Curry (turns 32 in March) and Draymond Green (turns 30 in March) have combined to play in 197 playoff games over the past five seasons, which means the "check engine" light is flickering. Veteran leaders Iguodala and Shaun Livingston are gone, the Western Conference is stacked and regular-season complacency -- which has been an issue over the past two seasons -- won't be as easy to overcome this season. Oh, I almost forgot about the growing pains that should accompany a new system featuring D'Angelo Russell. The target is 2020-21, not this year.
Schultz: Public perception is not always reality. Gone is the endless drama and glorious playmaking of Kyrie Irving. And that's just fine. His replacement, Kemba Walker, comes with none of the baggage but similar offensive prowess. Horford's loss surely hurts, but this remains one of the most talented teams in the league with one of its best coaches to boot in Brad Stevens. Look out for a bounce-back year from third-year forward Jayson Tatum, who will benefit enormously from Irving's departure, as well as shot-hunting forward Marcus Morris.
Too often last season we saw Tatum limp to a sluggish start, only to find himself all but removed from the offense the rest of the game while Irving played hero ball. To that point, the same can be said about Jaylen Brown, who will turn 23 before the season. Brown came alive during the playoffs and needs more opportunities with the ball in his hands to maximize all of his gifts. Both he and Tatum are hoping for rookie-scale extensions, providing even more incentive to collectively put together productive seasons.
Utah Jazz over 53.5 wins
Kezirian: Every season there is one team that treats the regular season more seriously than most. Two years ago it was the Rockets, fresh off the Chris Paul trade; last season it was the Bucks with a new offense focusing on the 3-pointer. My gut tells me it is Utah this year, a team rejuvenated by the addition of Conley and Bogdanovic and the conference's new-found parity with Kevin Durant's departure from the Warriors.
Both Conley and Bogdanovic are exactly what this team needed, as Mitchell was forced to carry too much of the offensive load. After a disappointing season (by their standards), I can see the Jazz attacking the regular season with seriousness and hunger. This is their championship window, and they know it. Additionally, they typically have an inflated home record during the regular season because of opponents' lengthy road trips and altitude. This could be a dominant home team.
Fortenbaugh: The Bucks won more regular season games (60) than any team in the NBA last season and, in the process, learned a very valuable lesson: regular-season success means nothing if you come up short in the playoffs. And that is exactly what transpired in last spring's Eastern Conference Finals after the Bucks blew a 2-0 series lead and lost in six games to the Raptors.
Expect the 2019-20 campaign to feature more load management and less intensity in an effort to escape the vulnerable Eastern Conference, which means a definite regression is on the horizon in regards to last season's 20-1 record when coming off a loss. Malcolm Brogdon (28.6 minutes per game, 15.6 points per game, .426 3-point percentage) landed in Indiana this offseason and won't be easy to replace. MVP bets
Kezirian: Harden has finished first or second in voting in three straight seasons. The Beard has also finished among the top two scorers for five straight years, which figures to continue with Mike D'Antoni at the helm. This race is wide open among some top-tier players, but I like the value with Harden. I am not that concerned about Westbrook inhibiting his production. Harden won the award alongside Chris Paul, and while I realize Westbrook is not as deferential, I do think the trade humbled him and his role is different on this team.Harden's new running 3-pointer could also endear him to fans and voting media members. His propensity to draw fouls sours fans, and this could actually be a difference-maker.
As for the contenders, Curry concerns me because he figures to enjoy much higher volume with Thompson's injury and Durant's departure. Giannis Antetokounmpo also could continue to evolve and repeat. I expect Davis and LeBron to split votes and rest several games with a larger goal on a healthy playoff run. Harden at 7-1 is enough for me to get involved.
Luka Doncic (50-1)
Schutz: Despite breaking down a tad and enduring some pedestrian splits to the close the season, Doncic enjoyed a record-setting rookie campaign en route to capturing Rookie of the Year honors. The 20-year-old already possesses a patented step-back and affects the game in a number of ways. Doncic uses his strength well, squaring up defensively and coaxing away tightly contested rebounds. Most importantly, he is already an elite playmaker who will love nothing more than running the two-man game with his new frontcourt partner, Kristaps Porzingis. Year 2 should bring about improved efficiency for Doncic, more wins and serious MVP consideration. Rookie of the Year bets
Ja Morant (7-2)
Schultz Blessed with devastating quickness, downhill speed and rare finishing ability in the paint, Morant is as physically gifted a lead guard to enter the league as you will find. His explosive scoring and highlight-reel dunks should not overshadow his rare basketball acumen and passing gifts. Morant is flanked in Memphis by another young star in second-year forward Jaren Jackson Jr., which means he will have ample opportunities to play the two-man game and quickly learn how to operate an offense in the half court. It is evident, too, that Morant has developed a strong connection with fellow rookie Brandon Clarke, another jumping jack forward who runs the floor and catches lobs with ease.
Schultz: The second-year forward out of Missouri remains one of the NBA's enigmas, as was Ben Simmons when he was forced to sit out his first season. Remember, Porter has played only three competitive basketball games since graduating high school in 2017. And yet, his array of offensive skills are tailor made for the modern NBA game. At 6-foot-10, he can handle the ball, shoot and score at all three levels. The Nuggets have legitimate championship aspirations and will likely take it slow with Porter, but a second-half push on a winning team could help him land ROY.
Schultz: Herro has been a favorite of mine for some time, and he's in the perfect spot to be a secondary playmaker and scorer for a team that desperately needs shooting around Butler. What stands out most with Herro isn't merely the dead-eye shooting, but also his ability to make plays operating out of ball screens. Herro was terrific during summer league, knocking down triples while also showcasing a more complete game than John Calipari ever allowed for at Kentucky.
Other bets
Nets to miss playoffs (+250 at Westgate)
Kezirian: I am operating under the assumption that Durant will miss the entire regular season. Can Kyrie successfully carry a team all by himself? He has only demonstrated the opposite, and health has been an issue. I realize the Nets have a solid supporting cast, but they only won 42 games last season. Are they really that much better with Irving and his baggage replacing All-Star D'Angelo Russell? Is Kyrie committed to this season, or is he prioritizing his brand (commercials and movies) in the Big Apple until Durant returns for the 2020-21 season?
Bucks to win Central Division (-550 at FanDuel)
Kezirian: Honestly, these odds are shocking. By comparison, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas has posted Milwaukee -2000. The Bucks have the league's highest win total at 57.5; the next-closest in their division is the Indiana Pacers at 47, and all reports indicate Victor Oladipo is not returning anytime soon from his knee injury. Milwaukee is an odds-on favorite to win the Eastern Conference and should have no problem prevailing in the Central. Obviously, anytime you lay this kind of lumber, you have to factor in significant injuries. The protection is that the Bucks are one of the NBA's deepest teams. So, in a worst-case scenario, this is a team that is built to withstand such a setback.
Johnson: This line should be closer to -1000. I'd be more reluctant to lay the big price if Oladipo was healthy out of the gate for the Pacers (the only other team in the division that could possibly give Milwaukee a run). This isn't the case, however, and -550 is a bargain worth grabbing.
Rockets to win Southwest Division (-278 at DraftKings)
Kezirian: First, let's forget about the Grizzlies; they're headed straight for the draft lottery. The Spurs, Mavericks and Pelicans will all flirt with the playoffs, and I am indifferent as to who will finish higher among that trio. In my eyes, the Rockets are a notch above.
Granted, having competent teams in the mix does open the door for Houston to underperform, but I still believe in the two-time division champs. Westbrook is a net positive. I was never a huge fan of him in OKC, given how the team used him, but I think he will complement Harden quite well. Given Paul's age and recent injuries, I believe the Rockets upgraded.
This team just overwhelms opponents with its 3-point shooting. They've led the league in makes and attempts for three straight years. This system works and is proven over an 82-game season, especially when you have an MVP candidate in Harden leading the way. With the perceived demise of the Warriors, the Rockets understand this is their golden opportunity. They have to seize it, and it starts with a high playoff seed. That's why they will treat the regular season with a sense of urgency.
76ers to win Atlantic Division -160 (FanDuel)
Johnson: I already am extremely bullish on this Sixers team, and at -160 they need to win the Atlantic only 61.5% of the time to break even on this proposition. I have Philadelphia winning 69.4% of the time, or a price of -227. Ben Simmons attempted 3-pointers under 65.5 -177 and made 3-pointers under 16.5 -177 (DraftKings)
Johnson: I get that Simmons made a 3-pointer in a preseason game against the Guangzhou Long-Lions, but read that sentence again. Twitter exploded, and the hype train is real, but I'm perfectly fine betting against the hype. Simmons has attempted 17 3-pointers in the regular season in his two-year career (160 games). He's made 0 of them. I'd be utterly shocked if Simmons 3-pointers became a thing in the 2019-20 season.
Curry highest average points per game (+250 at FanDuel)
Johnson: With Westbrook in Houston with Harden and Curry leading the charge for the Warriors sans KD and Klay, this is automatic at the price of +250. We saw what Steph was doing in the playoffs this past season, and even though it was preseason, he dropped 40 in 25 minutes before sitting for the majority of the second half. To win the scoring title a player must play in 70 games or score at least 1,400 points. As long as Curry is able to play roughly half of his games this season, he will qualify.
The Warriors are playing at an even faster pace than the league-leading Atlanta Hawks did last season, and the defense is worse than it has ever been in the Steve Kerr era. Steph will be doing Steph things -- a lot -- and we get to bet on them at +250.
Curry highest average made 3-pointers per game -240 (FanDuel)
Johnson: More of the same, though it's worth noting that Curry still won this fairly easily last season despite Harden attempting a record 13.2 3-pointers per game. Curry is the best shooter ever and will have as big of a green light as he has ever had in his career. I'm all over it.
Johnson: This is essentially Lou Williams versus the field, but I wanted to take a shot on someone other than Williams. His role is likely going to be changing with the likes of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George arriving in Los Angeles, and at the very least his volume will go down. Dinwiddie, on the other hand, may be leading the charge for a portion of the season while Kyrie recovers from injury.
Even if Dinwiddie were to start in 49% of the games he plays in, he'd qualify for this award. Last season he averaged 16.8 points and 4.6 assists on 44% shooting (that's Lou territory anyway). With an uptick in responsibility with Russell in Golden State and Irving averaging just 63 games played per season in his career, Dinwiddie's opportunity at +700 is the bet to make.
Schultz: LeVert has the size and skills to become a bonafide star. At 6-foot-6, he is extremely creative with the ball and flashes signs of the long-range marksmanship necessary to mesh well alongside Irving. Kenny Atkinson and the entire Nets staff trust the fourth-year forward to continue his ascent as one of the NBA's marquee young players.
Schultz: Murray remains one of the league's best-kept secrets. After a torn ACL kept him out all of last season, the 23-year-old has the keys to Gregg Popovich's offense, to which Murray's size, athleticism and creativity will lend itself well. The Seattle native who prepped at Rainier Beach -- the same high school as Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson, Terrence Williams, Doug Christie and Kevin Porter Jr. -- possesses all of the attributes to become the Spurs' next great point guard. Portland Trail Blazers over 47 wins
Schultz: This number is an insult to an improved Blazers team fresh off a conference finals appearance. Hassan Whiteside is a sensible acquisition as a rim protector and roll man who enters Portland having already established a good relationship with Damian Lillard. Lillard and McCollum comprise arguably the NBA's top backcourt. They will be buoyed by the re-signing of Rodney Hood and first-round draft choice Nassir Little as an instant energy source and defensive ace off the bench. Portland surpassing the 50-win barrier is a fine assumption to thicken your wallet. Golden State Warriors under 47 wins
Fortenbaugh: Golden State's win total opened north of 50 but has been plummeting ever since -- and for good reason. Durant now cashes checks courtesy of the Brooklyn Nets and Klay Thompson (ACL) will be out until after the All-Star break, which means the best-case scenario features him in the mix for just 27 games. As for the current roster, Stephen Curry (turns 32 in March) and Draymond Green (turns 30 in March) have combined to play in 197 playoff games over the past five seasons, which means the "check engine" light is flickering. Veteran leaders Iguodala and Shaun Livingston are gone, the Western Conference is stacked and regular-season complacency -- which has been an issue over the past two seasons -- won't be as easy to overcome this season. Oh, I almost forgot about the growing pains that should accompany a new system featuring D'Angelo Russell. The target is 2020-21, not this year. Boston Celtics over 49 wins
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29 NBA Bets To Like For 2019-20 🏀
Utah Jazz over 53.5 wins
Milwaukee Bucks under 57.5 wins
James Harden (7-1)
Most improved player: Caris LeVert (20-1)
Most improved player: Dejounte Murray (11-1)
Portland Trail Blazers over 47 wins
Golden State Warriors under 47 wins
Boston Celtics over 49 wins
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