I just spent the past hour looking at every angle of these two games tonight (LAD/ATL) and (TAM/HOU)

My approach to handicapping baseball always starts with team pitching and I work my way down.
My baseball philosophy has always been if you can't allow teams to score they can not win.
Keep base runners off the bases they can not score.
Simple.
There's truth to the matter "a walk is as good as a hit " too
Only difference is with a single you can drive a runner in from second base, with a base on balls you can not, regardless a base on balls is still a base runner allowed.

What I look at from both teams starters first is WH/IP (walks and hits divided by nine innings) home runs allowed, and then I look at left/right splits (the pitchers ability to get a left handed batter out or a right handed batter out. You know, game match ups.

I look a strike out rates too.

Long story short, teams that win a game usually are the team whose pitchers keep the opposing hitters off base the most, however if a pitcher doesn't yield too many home runs than he can get away with an extra walk more than usual per game. Nothing worse than a pitcher who walks too many and is home run prone.

There's a little more, but I touched on what's important.


2 games tonight.
4 teams, 4 different starters.
But in 2020 they don't call them starters, we call them 'openers'

First the NL game

Ian Anderson will open the game for the Braves.
(He quit Jethro Tull to pitch baseball. What's his famous lyric "snots running down his nose" from Aqua Lung. I'm sorry I love telling that gag)

Any way Anderson is a a major league rookie.
He's pitched in six games, all in starts, and was outstanding.
Unreal K rate strikes out 11.5 per nine innings, allows minimal baserunners, and get this has given up only one homer. He's legit, he's done that at every level in the minors.

Anderson is not an innings eater though, he'll be what us baseball people like to call a five and fly guy tonight.
I can almost guarantee Anderson will not see the seventh inning tonight, not because he sucked, it's because he'll use a lot of pitches getting to the sixth inning, strike outs to that to a pitch count, they run that total up.

So, you have to handicap the Braves bullpen too if you want to wager on this game.
How they matchup against LA's hitters and what not.

Now onto the Dodgers.
LA opens the game up with another five and fly guy tonight. Tony Gonsolin.
Like his counter part Anderson, he's young, a second year pro, and like Anderson also a very good pitcher who is legit.
High K volume, low base runner and HR ratios, as I said.
And like Anderson will not see the seventh inning tonight, high pitch count not because he sucked.

So I am expecting an even game going into the sixth inning.
This game will be decided by bullpens and bullpens match ups.

Wrapping this up.
What to do?

Slight edge to the Braves starter, slight edge to the Dodgers bullpen.
Both teams have solid line ups.

What to?
You can pass on the side.
I will usually bet the underdog in a toss up game if I can get a quarter or more (+125) it's a value bet in my opinion. I would bet the Braves if I can get a number near +130 or better.
Or you can bet the under 8.5 runs.

You make the bet, it's your money.

I might write up the Rays/Astro game in an hour or so if I have the time.

I'll say this.
Same scenarios.
Both opening pitchers are five and guys
Both are not house hold name brands (Urquidy and Yarbrough)
Differences are one is a lefty(Yarbrough TB) whose opponents have proven they can hit LHP well in the past, and the (Urquid HOU) is a right who has proven he can be very effective against left handed hitting which TB has a lot of.

Leaning Houston there but it's a toss up game and the betting line is +101
Razor sharp line where there is no value.
No value in this game. Zero

More later I have to feed the dogs and me.