1. #1
    CanuckG
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    Hman where you at?

    Post the ESPN+ Bear plays. Thanks chief.

  2. #2
    Hman
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    Give me a while to get to pc and I'll post

  3. #3
    RudyRuetigger
    Leave of absence until March Madness
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    hey canuck give us some fukkin plays man

    im struggling

  4. #4
    Jayvegas420
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    Marshall
    Syracuse
    Northwestern

    all with the points.

    Dallas/Pitt over 6
    Car/Ana over 5.5

  5. #5
    t-wizzle
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    How has Fallica been?

  6. #6
    jjgold
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    Hman knows everything

  7. #7
    shocka1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    How has Fallica been?
    Hot.... guy was like 9-0 for a while there.. his podcast is great. he nails tight lines all the time. his memory is the key.. remembers games and lines he bet back in the 90's...

  8. #8
    Hman
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    'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 8 college football picks, bets, nuggets

    ESPN PLUS ($ MATERIAL)



    Talk about a hot streak. Chris "The Bear" Fallica is on quite a roll over the past three weeks, going a perfect 12-0 on his picks. So what's in store for this week?


    In this article, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and "The Bear" break down Week 8 of the college football season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and a special money-line underdog parlay to jump on.


    With the season in full swing, the guys are ready to continue their prognostications. Here we go with Week 8 picks.

    The plays

    Stanford Steve (0-3 last week, 17-14-2 overall)

    The Bear (3-0 last week, 17-11-1 overall)








    Boise State Broncos (-6.5, 47) at BYU Cougars
    The Bear: Both teams have injuries to address at quarterback, with Hank Bachmeier nursing a hip injury for the Broncos and BYU's Jaren Hall working his way back from concussion symptoms. Boise has found a way to cover all but one of its games this season, and BYU has had a couple of tough-luck road losses the past two weeks. I get the sense that a return to Provo and the need for a win here to provide an easier path to bowl eligibility will result in a good effort from the Cougars.


    Pick: BYU +6.5



    Tulane Green Wave at Memphis Tigers (-4.5, 59.5)


    The Bear: I like this Tulane team and expect the Green Wave offense to give Memphis fits. What we thought was an improved Tigers defense has been a bit of a mirage, as it allowed 575 and 456 yards the past two weeks. There's a bit of urgency for the Tigers as they return home after a controversial loss at Temple, but I expect Tulane to give Memphis its best shot.


    Pick: Tulane +4.5



    LSU Tigers (-18.5, 61.5) at Mississippi State Bulldogs
    The Bear: Yes, I admit it's a little risky getting in front of the LSU cover machine, but it's all about the spot. LSU comes off an intense home win over Florida and has Auburn on deck next week, then a potential top-3 matchup with Alabama after that. The Bulldogs suffered an embarrassing loss at Tennessee last week, were blown out by Auburn before that and lost to Kansas State at home earlier this year. MSU cant stop turning the ball over. There's nothing on paper that makes you believe the Bulldogs should hang around this one, but at some point even the best teams have that flat spot, and this just might be it for LSU.


    Pick: Mississippi State +18.5



    Texas A&M Aggies (-6.5, 54.5) at Ole Miss Rebels
    The Bear: The Aggies haven't swept the Mississippi schools since Johnny Manziel left College Station. Now A&M is laying around a TD in Oxford and will be favored against Mississippi State next week. Ole Miss was a debatable call away from being up 14-3 last week at Missouri before losing by 11. It's clear John Rhys Plumlee is a difference-maker at quarterback for the Rebels, and he should help keep them in this one against an A&M team that can't run the football and nearly lost to Arkansas in its last game away from home.


    Pick: Ole Miss +6.5



    Charlotte 49ers at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-9, 48.5)
    The Bear: Western Kentucky hasn't scored more than 21 points against an FBS opponent this season. Charlotte hasn't scored fewer than 23 against teams not named Clemson. Sure, the 49ers' defense has been gutted in recent weeks, but it is not facing a prolific offense here and should get some players back from injury on defense this week. If Charlotte can score 23, shouldn't that be good enough for the cover?


    Pick: Charlotte +9



    Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-3.5, 68)
    The Bear: Baylor is unbeaten, but a key injury at linebacker probably will hurt the defense here against Chuba Hubbard, Tylan Wallace & Co. The Cowboys have been off since a humbling loss at Texas Tech, and one would think Mike Gundy's team is in a pretty good spot here to hang the first loss of the season on the Bears. See my "Bear Bytes" below for a few interesting trends on this matchup, whether you like the Bears or Cowboys.


    Pick: Oklahoma State -3.5



    Clemson Tigers (-24.5, 60.5) at Louisville Cardinals


    Stanford Steve: Last year when these teams played in South Carolina, the Tigers won 77-16. This year is a different story; Louisville has already gone over its projected win total and new head coach Scott Satterfield has things going in the right direction. The Cardinals average 37 points but are still giving up 31. The Clemson offense looked to have gotten back on track last week, beating Florida State 45-14. It looks as is Micale Cunningham will be back at QB for Louisville, even though backup Evan Conley led the Cardinals to victory last week in an upset 62-59 win over ranked Wake Forest. You know the Tigers will score and I think the Cardinals will score enough for the number to go over the total. Take the over.


    Pick: Over 60.5 points. Clemson 48, Louisville 21.



    Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-1, 57)
    Stanford Steve: The Rivalry in Dixie! The Eagles are fresh off a rout of North Texas and now are averaging 444 yards of offense and 31 points under quarterback Jack Abraham, who is fourth in FBS with 1,936 yards through the air. The Techsters are fresh off a drubbing of lowly UMass where they had 42 points in the first 19 minutes of the game. They now are averaging 34 PPG and 467 yards per game. Both offenses are better than the defenses they'll face. The number just doesn't make sense to me. Take the over.


    Pick: Over 57 points. Southern Miss 41, Louisiana Tech 38

    Stanford Steve's Thursday night pick


    UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-7, 52.5)
    Stanford will be starting its third-string quarterback. I think that's enough for the Bruins to keep it close.


    Pick: UCLA +7. Stanford 23, UCLA 20.

    Stanford Steve's Saturday prime-time pick


    Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (-9, 45.5)


    Not sure what people are more tired of: Tom Herman's record as an underdog ATS or Jim Harbaugh as an underdog vs. ranked teams. Regardless, I think Penn State has a serious advantage with its defensive line against the Wolverines' offensive line. Plus, no one punches additional scores in late in games better than James Franklin. I'll lay the points.


    Pick: Penn State -9. Penn State 31, Michigan 18.

    Stay-away games

    The Bear


    UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal (-7, 52.5)
    It's anyone's guess as to what the Stanford offense will look like with its third-string quarterback in the game.



    Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-2.5, 68.5)
    How will FSU respond after another blowout loss at Clemson? And how will the Deacs respond to their first loss of the year, especially if quarterback Jamie Newman can't go?



    Florida Gators (-5, 48.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
    I wanted to like the Gamecocks here, but the number has come down enough where it's not enough points for me. I was impressed with Florida in defeat last week at LSU, and a win by a TD wouldn't surprise me -- nor would an outright loss.



    Toledo Rockets (-1.5, 58.5) at Ball State Cardinals
    The Rockets have injury concerns at quarterback and are coming off an embarrassing loss to Bowling Green. This line has flipped from Toledo to Ball State as the favorite in a few spots, so be careful.


    Stanford Steve


    Florida Gators (-5, 48.5) at South Carolina Gamecocks
    No clue how teams will react to their outcomes last week and what toll it took on them physically.



    Temple Owls at SMU Mustangs (-7.5, 59)
    No idea what to expect from the ranked Mustangs off a bye week or how Owls will travel after knocking off Memphis.

    The Bear's money-line parlay of the week

    Ten-team favorite ML parlay. Based on current Caesars odds, $100 gets you $25. Beats working for a living, no?


    Ohio State -6000
    Houston -2000
    UCF -10000
    Texas -2000
    Georgia -3500
    Wisconsin -12000
    Alabama -15000
    Oklahoma -10000
    Minnesota -7000
    FIU -3000


    The Bear's underdogs to play in parlays, round robins and/or on ML

    Ole Miss +200
    Tulane +165
    BYU +210
    Boston College +150
    Oregon State +335
    Eastern Michigan +260
    Duke +140


    Stanford Steve's favorite double-digit home favorite

    South Florida Bulls at Navy Midshipmen (-14, 53)


    I don't think the Bulls want anything to do with the Middies' rushing attack after a win last week against BYU.


    Pick: Navy -14. Navy 35, USF 17.

    Stanford Steve's short favorite worth taking on the money-line

    Rice Owls at UTSA Roadrunners


    The Owls are starving for a win.


    Pick: Rice ML (-180). Rice 24, UTSA 20

    Bear Bytes

    Plenty of angles on Baylor-Oklahoma State


    Since 2013, there have been four instances where a team 6-0 or better was an underdog against an unranked team. The last three have lost by 21, 7 and 18 points, respectively. The only one to win? Temple in 2015, as a 3-point 'dog at East Carolina. Matt Rhule's Owls won 24-14. Rhule, now the head coach at Baylor, again finds himself in that spot this week, at 6-0 and as a 3.5-point underdog at unranked Oklahoma State.


    Teams 6-0 or better as an underdog vs. unranked teams (since 2013):


    2018: USF vs. Houston, lost by 21
    2018: Cincinnati vs. Temple, lost by 7
    2015: Utah vs. USC, lost by 18
    2013: Temple vs. ECU, won by 10


    In 15 games as an underdog of less than seven points, Rhule is 12-3 straight up (4-0 at Baylor). That includes a 23-21 win over Iowa State this season as a 2.5-point 'dog. In the past 10 years, an unranked Oklahoma State team has been favored at home over a ranked opponent three times. The Cowboys are 3-0 straight up and ATS in this spot.


    Unranked OSU as home favorites vs. ranked teams (past 10 years):


    2019: OSU vs. No. 24 Kansas State (-4), won by 13
    2016: OSU vs. No. 22 Texas (-2), won by 18
    2012: OSU vs. No. 23 Texas Tech (-10), won by 38


    What does South Carolina have for an encore?


    Since 2000, there have been 14 teams that won as a 20-point underdog and were an underdog in their next regular-season game. Those 14 went 11-3 ATS and only one pulled the double upset: 2016 Syracuse, which won as 21-point 'dog vs. Virginia Tech and a 4-point 'dog vs. Boston College.


    Double-digit favorite to play against?


    Miami is 2-8 ATS with two outright losses in its past 10 games as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS opponents. Included in that is a loss to Virginia Tech two weeks ago and a five-point win over Central Michigan as a 30.5-point favorite earlier this year.


    Land of disenchantment


    New Mexico has failed to cover each of its past eight games (0-7-1) and is 4-17-1 ATS in its past 22 games.


    No Conn do


    This is the 10th straight and 16th time in 17 games that Connecticut is a double-digit underdog against an FBS opponent.


    Herm plays to win the game


    Arizona State is 8-3 ATS with six outright wins as an underdog under Herm Edwards. ASU has been a 'dog three times this year and won all three games outright (Michigan State, Cal, Washington State).


    Noles make history


    This is the first time Wake Forest (-2.5) has been favored over Florida State. In fact, only twice have the Deacs been an underdog of less than a touchdown (2007 and 2008), and Wake won both of those games outright.


    Harbaugh seeks elusive win at Michigan


    Michigan has failed to win a game under Harbaugh in which the Wolverines entered as an underdog. Michigan is 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS as a 'dog under Harbaugh. Five of the seven losses have been by at least 11 points. Only two full-time Power 5 head coaches have been an underdog at least six times since 2015 (Harbaugh's first year at Michigan) and failed to win a game: Harbaugh (0-7) and Indiana's Tom Allen (0-15). The Wolverines are 4-11 SU and 5-10 ATS against top-15 teams under Harbaugh.


    Temple a 'dog again


    Since 2015, Temple is 18-5 ATS with 12 outright wins as an underdog. Included in that is a 20-17 win over Maryland earlier this year as a 5.5-point underdog and an upset win at home over Memphis last week.


    Washington a rare home underdog


    This is the first time since Sept. 26, 2015 that Washington is a home underdog. The Huskies were a 2-point underdog to Cal in Chris Petersen's second year at UW and lost 30-24 that day. That was 29 home games ago. Oregon has been favored four times at Husky Stadium and won and covered all four (2007, 2009, 2011, 2013). However, the Ducks have lost seven of the past 12 games in which they have been favored away from home (5-7 ATS).


    A cut above


    Duke is currently a 3-point underdog at Virginia. As a 'dog of three points or less, David Cutcliffe has won 10 of 12 games outright as Blue Devils head coach. And in its past 10 games as an underdog, Duke is 8-2 straight up (9-1 ATS). The only two games Duke lost in that stretch were to the teams that have combined to win the past four national championships -- Alabama and Clemson.

  9. #9
    shocka1212
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    gotta listen to the podcast for the steamer pick.. its the best. Also, no love lost hman... you know I'm not one of "those guys"

  10. #10
    Ghenghis Kahn
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    Quote Originally Posted by shocka1212 View Post
    Hot.... guy was like 9-0 for a while there.. his podcast is great. he nails tight lines all the time. his memory is the key.. remembers games and lines he bet back in the 90's...
    Is he like a savant? I don't even remember the lines I bet last week.

  11. #11
    jjgold
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    I love these guys

    All sound good

  12. #12
    t-wizzle
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    I’m not a big fan of these two guys but I know people love them. You can usually predict what their plays will be. It’s all the usual traditional college football angles.

  13. #13
    t-wizzle
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    Also not crazy about the way these two always seem to toss out extremely favorable lines. Perfect example: I saw Fallica gave Miss State +19 as a lean. That was not a real number.

  14. #14
    shocka1212
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Also not crazy about the way these two always seem to toss out extremely favorable lines. Perfect example: I saw Fallica gave Miss State +19 as a lean. That was not a real number.
    they buried people with the maryland/rutgers over also a few weeks back

  15. #15
    CanuckG
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    Quote Originally Posted by t-wizzle View Post
    Also not crazy about the way these two always seem to toss out extremely favorable lines. Perfect example: I saw Fallica gave Miss State +19 as a lean. That was not a real number.
    to be fair it was +19 at 5Dimes for a bit

  16. #16
    t-wizzle
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    Quote Originally Posted by CanuckG View Post
    to be fair it was +19 at 5Dimes for a bit
    Got you. It’s just something I’ve noticed with their plays over time though.

  17. #17
    KiDBaZkiT
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    Bear has never had sex without having to pay. Not one time.
    Points Awarded:

    manny24 gave KiDBaZkiT 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  18. #18
    Hman
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    I assume his 12 game win streak ended??

  19. #19
    lonegambler23
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    hman the sbr insider

  20. #20
    Hman
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    What was Bear's record this past wknd after running off 12 straight wins??

  21. #21
    Jayvegas420
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    that ML parlay of the week

  22. #22
    jjgold
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    HMAN works 18 hrs a day

    How does he do it?

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