[Hman]

Best bets for Chiefs-Broncos

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The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs (who have lost two in a row) and the Denver Broncos (who are riding a two-game winning streak).


ESPN betting analyst Joe Fortenbaugh and fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup between AFC West rivals.


Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Wednesday.


The 2019 NFL season is in full swing, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday night's game between the Kansas City Chiefs (who have lost two in a row) and the Denver Broncos (who are riding a two-game winning streak).


ESPN betting analyst Joe Fortenbaugh and fantasy's Mike Clay combine to offer their best bets for the matchup between AFC West rivals.


Note: Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. Odds as of Wednesday.


Clay: Kelce has scored only one touchdown this season, but a deeper look suggests a lot more are on the way. Kelce's OTD (opportunity-adjusted touchdown) is 3.3, which is 19th highest in the entire NFL. Kelce has seen five end zone targets (tied for sixth most) but has caught none of them after entering 2019 with a career conversion rate of 47% on end zone targets. In fact, Kelce scored 10 touchdowns (two against Denver) and ranked 14th in the league in end zone targets in 2018. Kelce remains a massive part of the Chiefs' offense, averaging 8.2 targets per game. If there's a red flag here, it's a Denver defense that has allowed only four passing touchdowns this season. Still, Kelce projects with a 47% chance to find paydirt, which is above this line's suggestion of 41%.

Patrick Mahomes under 24.5 pass completions

Fortenbaugh: Mahomes and the Chiefs are operating at a significant disadvantage having to travel to the always-hostile Empower Field at Mile High on short rest for a Thursday night tilt with division rival Denver. But the concerns don't stop there. Take a look at the statistical regression the reigning MVP has experienced over the past three weeks:


• Mahomes' first 3 games: 71% completions, 1,195 yards, 10 TDs, 0 INT, 3 sacks
• Mahomes' past 3 games: 56% completions, 909 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT, 5 sacks


So, what happened? Detroit head coach Matt Patricia and the Lions laid out the blueprint in Week 4 for how best to limit Mahomes and the Kansas City offense -- with heavy doses of man coverage in dime personnel packages and an adjustment to nickel personnel anytime a second tight end joins Kelce on the field. As a result, Chiefs wide receivers are no longer running free down the field with the consistency they enjoyed early in the year. And Mahomes is dealing with an ankle injury he tweaked against the Colts in Week 5.


While Mahomes attempted 38.0 passes per game over the first three contests of the season compared to 38.6 over his past three outings, his completions have dropped from 27.3 per game to 21.6 per game during that stretch. Denver has the personnel, coaching and talent to employ the aforementioned blueprint laid out by the Lions.

[jjgold]

Love Denver and Flacco