1. #1
    Gaze73
    Gaze73's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-14
    Posts: 3,105
    Betpoints: 1192

    Why do people bet on -200 MLs?

    There is no money at those odds. In 10 years I've never seen anyone make profit at those odds. If someone posts such picks it's a big red flag they're clueless about value. Even a 66% win rate loses 1 cent per bet. Win rates are for wannabe pros and touts, the only thing that matters is the bottom line.

    There is however one sport where those odds can be profitable and that's tennis. But in team based sports, forget it. We've all seen those NBA, NFL and college sports MLs around here go horribly. If someone posts a at -350, take the dog spread to hit at least 55%.

  2. #2
    WvGambler
    WvGambler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-19-10
    Posts: 11,618
    Betpoints: 150

    Give us a winner tonight, Gazer!

  3. #3
    Gaze73
    Gaze73's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-14
    Posts: 3,105
    Betpoints: 1192

    I'm about to cap ATP Tokyo, it's 2 AM around here but can't let value go to waste.

  4. #4
    Surecawk
    Surecawk's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-22-19
    Posts: 230
    Betpoints: 83

    #152

    make do answer's you's question-ing, Meester Gaze.



    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...to-her-p5.html

  5. #5
    WvGambler
    WvGambler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-19-10
    Posts: 11,618
    Betpoints: 150

    Reilly Opelka? Let us know what you’re leaning.

  6. #6
    Gaze73
    Gaze73's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-14
    Posts: 3,105
    Betpoints: 1192

    Quote Originally Posted by WvGambler View Post
    Reilly Opelka? Let us know what you’re leaning.
    Uchiyama. I like home dogs.
    Points Awarded:

    WvGambler gave Gaze73 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  7. #7
    allabout the $$$
    Update your status
    allabout the $$$'s Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-17-10
    Posts: 9,833
    Betpoints: 26823

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    There is no money at those odds. In 10 years I've never seen anyone make profit at those odds. If someone posts such picks it's a big red flag they're clueless about value. Even a 66% win rate loses 1 cent per bet. Win rates are for wannabe pros and touts, the only thing that matters is the bottom line.

    There is however one sport where those odds can be profitable and that's tennis. But in team based sports, forget it. We've all seen those NBA, NFL and college sports MLs around here go horribly. If someone posts a at -350, take the dog spread to hit at least 55%.
    this coming from the guy who used to bet big chalk all the time

  8. #8
    Gaze73
    Gaze73's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-14
    Posts: 3,105
    Betpoints: 1192

    Quote Originally Posted by allabout the $$$ View Post
    this coming from the guy who used to bet big chalk all the time
    I never used to bet big chalk. I just assumed the bookies wouldn't let people make money from the most obvious favs.

  9. #9
    Gaze73
    Gaze73's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-27-14
    Posts: 3,105
    Betpoints: 1192

    Fognini looks great too.

  10. #10
    allabout the $$$
    Update your status
    allabout the $$$'s Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 04-17-10
    Posts: 9,833
    Betpoints: 26823

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    I never used to bet big chalk. I just assumed the bookies wouldn't let people make money from the most obvious favs.
    you really dont want me to pull up your old threads so gtfo

  11. #11
    kidcudi92
    W and Based Poster
    kidcudi92's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-14-11
    Posts: 15,434
    Betpoints: 1679

    yikes backfire thread

  12. #12
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Because they always look good before the game starts

  13. #13
    JAKEPEAVY21
    JAKEPEAVY21's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-11-11
    Posts: 28,185
    Betpoints: 47501

    Big MLs are locks...ask Brock landers and Otters.

  14. #14
    lonegambler23
    Org Mafia
    lonegambler23's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 06-22-16
    Posts: 9,697
    Betpoints: 13520

    otters is your man gazer

  15. #15
    RangeFinder
    RangeFinder's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-27-16
    Posts: 8,040
    Betpoints: 2697

    Depends on how often you think a team wins under the current circumstances. With probability at roughly 66% you would certainly make a play if you have a team winning at 75% or better (for example). No different than say a team at -110 you feel has a 56% chance of winning. An edge is an edge no matter what the books throw at you.

  16. #16
    Tanko
    Slow roll
    Tanko's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-19-09
    Posts: 5,084
    Betpoints: 24810

    Quote Originally Posted by Gaze73 View Post
    There is no money at those odds. In 10 years I've never seen anyone make profit at those odds. If someone posts such picks it's a big red flag they're clueless about value. Even a 66% win rate loses 1 cent per bet. Win rates are for wannabe pros and touts, the only thing that matters is the bottom line.

    There is however one sport where those odds can be profitable and that's tennis. But in team based sports, forget it. We've all seen those NBA, NFL and college sports MLs around here go horribly. If someone posts a at -350, take the dog spread to hit at least 55%.

    Its simple... 1/5th Jack Daniels will makes me tail JJ.... That should explain why it happens.

  17. #17
    thechaoz
    2019 SBRs Toughest Poster
    thechaoz's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-23-09
    Posts: 12,155
    Betpoints: 35902

    Quote Originally Posted by JAKEPEAVY21 View Post
    Big MLs are locks...ask Brock landers and Otters.
    Seaweed says hi

  18. #18
    fried cheese
    Update your status
    fried cheese's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-17-13
    Posts: 4,400
    Betpoints: 16988

    i will give you bowling green at +300 this week. free money for you.

  19. #19
    jjgold
    jjgold's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-20-05
    Posts: 388,190
    Betpoints: 10

    Some say there’s no juice when you win

Top