[FOREVER HUSKERS]

Dawg can relate to rebuilding a team Huskers in the midst of doing just that. Will be there long before Tulane i would hope

[Husker36]

Rebuilding a program

Not easy

So yeah I guess so

I'd say their coach is showing improvement...…
Going 4-8 then 5-7 then 7-6.

Guess we will see what these to below average teams do tonight.

I personally think that Houston's experience playing Oklahoma and Washington State will have them ready for this one. Guess we will see.

[BigdaddyQH]

Holgerson is ass.

Holgerson just cannot understand the meaning of many words that have more than 6 letters in it, such as Defense.

[Husker36]

Houston a "very public dog" 68% on Houston and line has risen Sharps lurking on the Wave. Be careful and as always GL however you go.

My only issue with this statement is how do you know? I mean this is info that you found somewhere but the casinos are not required to provide this info. So I always question the accuracy. SBR says that 57% of the people are on Houston.

https://www.thespread.com/ncaa-colle...-betting-chart says that 66% are on Houston.

I bet the bookies in LA are taking most of the best on Tulane and Texas is taking most of their bets on Houston.

I feel that sometimes info like this is released to sway the betters. I dunno. I just don't trust info on who is betting on who.

[FOREVER HUSKERS]

Husker36- Fair assessment relative to where you see and obtain the info.

[Combato]

I don't think RLM works too well anymore, probably a 50/50 proposition based on what I've observed.

Conensus does appear to be tilted toward Houston but way less than 60% in most places I've looked.

Tulane took money early from -3 to -5 but that is not reflected in the ticket count which is 55 to 57 Pct on Houston. So yes, based on this alone, this is a true RLM.

The question is: Do RLM's still work now that every other poster on every forum is talking about "public money" and "sharp moves" and "reverse line movment"? One thing is certain: As any angle, system or whatever is discovered, publicized, discussed on ESPN, blabbered about by various touts on podcasts, then the less effective the angle becomes. I agree this is an "RLM". But my answer to that is "So what"?

[Combato]

I used to always try to look for dogs that were loved by the public. But when I actually started looking in 10 year databases for the answers, I found "public dogs" to have a very small edge, somewhere around 53% or less. Not enough of an edge to make a bet.

There are some pretty good reasons to play Tulane tonight but fading a public dog (Houston) is not one of them.

[RudyRuetigger]

Looks like a Houston play

[firedawg]

Looks like a Houston play

Nope

[KVB]

Yeah, my sources, when put together, do develop a bigger picture that shows over time to be advantageous but it's a long way to the long term. Not sure about numbers and consensus being worked with or posted in this thread, but some of my info comes from phone calls and has for years.

I bought Houston +155 early in the week but there is an issue the "spot" Houston is in when you consider the short term. Not to mention, it doesn't look like we're going to beat the closet there, which doesn't bode well for the individual play in that value fund. It's one of the rare times you can see a short term effect of the closing comparison and can only be done when value investing.

We quantify this and have been doing it for decades so when we say things like "does RLM work" or whatever that means, I can put numbers behind the conclusions.

At this point we've reached a threshold that triggers Houston into a category, not a bet, but a category.

That category is the "trendy dog" and it would take quite the +EV forecast which won't even fully exist until 4 weeks of games are under out belts to cause any adjustments to counter those percentages putting it there. Current forecasts don't come close enough, based on many strategies of gambling, even though they appeared to at the open.

So yeah Houston is the trendy dog who's line has gotten sweeter.

History tells us that's not exactly the best "spot" to be in no matter what day of week.

I wouldn't be surprised it Tulane won this game by 1-5 points because it's not what they bring, it's how they bring it.

Good Luck whatever your play but this one is a sticky situation in the marketplace, that's why I wouldn't be surprised at a close score, somewhere inside that line.

[RudyRuetigger]

ive seen these big time line movements before when its around a pickem to start

would not surprise me to see a buy back to 2.5 at all books

[Hot Jerry]

Well I got TULANE for 0.5 unit . So lets SPANK HOUSTON - YES -
Won already Atlanta and Boston today in MLB so Im fine . And the whole this week was very good to me : +5.5 units up so far !! So Im not bitching at all .

[RudyRuetigger]

ive seen these big time line movements before when its around a pickem to start

would not surprise me to see a buy back to 2.5 at all books

wait, i just checked

its at 1.5 now?

this changes everything

i have no fukkin clue

[Husker36]

Up to 6.5 at 5Dimes. Crazy

[U2.5]

Up to 6.5 at 5Dimes. Crazy

my 5dimes hasn't changed from 5 since yesterday. The only thing that dropped was the ML from +180 to +175. I wonder if dimes is dealing different lines to different folks?

[gauchojake]

Bovada has HOU at +4.5 while every other book at +5

This tells you everything you need to know.

[jjgold]

If anything take Houston

[U2.5]

5dimes dropped to 4 now

[Ireland4ever]

Tulane wore out Memphis last year as a pretty good dog. might have been week day game.

[Ireland4ever]

Take Tulane and go to the bank smiling

[texhooper]

So..... LAST YEAR..... Tulane beat Memphis..... in their 7-6 season.

Now they have a new QB.... and your theory is that Tulane is just a great team on Thursdays?

Just seems like weird reasoning.

Not sure if you were addressing me or others that were discussing what I answered for everyone who was wondering, but I don’t have some weird theory about Tulane being a better team on weekdays than weekends.

I do happen to like Tulane tonight though. And I do like that it’s a spotlighted game on a Thursday, yes I do. Big time spot for that program to prove they’ve turned a corner.

[asiagambler]

The new QB McMillen is better than the old QB and isn't really new since he took over middle of last year.

Jalen McCluskey also transferred to Tulane this year and that should give them a good 1 2 punch with Darnell Mooney.

Tulane is supposed to throw it more this year with their new OC, I think they'll have success here. I'm not convinced of Houston's defense even after playing decently against Washington State

[2daBank]

The new QB McMillen is better than the old QB and isn't really new since he took over middle of last year.

Jalen McCluskey also transferred to Tulane this year and that should give them a good 1 2 punch with Darnell Mooney.

Tulane is supposed to throw it more this year with their new OC, I think they'll have success here. I'm not convinced of Houston's defense even after playing decently against Washington State

I’m not convinced of anything Cept that Houston made a bad and Tulane is the better coached team.

[2daBank]

Bovada has HOU at +4.5 while every other book at +5

This tells you everything you need to know.

Just cause Tulane the “square” side doesn’t mean they won’t cash.

[gauchojake]

Just cause Tulane the “square” side doesn’t mean they won’t cash.

I read that as Houston being the square side although now the line has dropped everywhere to 4 or 4.5 so who fukkin knows.

[2daBank]

I read that as Houston being the square side although now the line has dropped everywhere to 4 or 4.5 so who fukkin knows.

Oh, maybe I was looking at it backwards, lol. Bovada always racks on extra half point/juice to the “square” side if I recall correctly? Haven’t played there in a long time.

[KVB]

...So yeah Houston is the trendy dog who's line has gotten sweeter...

Books finally blinking a little here, enough to even pull off the 5. Figures as much, the pressure was there.

Rooting for the Houston Moneyline here!!!

[gauchojake]

Oh, maybe I was looking at it backwards, lol. Bovada always racks on extra half point/juice to the “square” side if I recall correctly? Haven’t played there in a long time.

Right - so when every book has +5 on the favorite Bovada usually has +5.5 so when the favorite is getting a 1/2 point better than BM or BOL, that means the public is on the dog and Bovada is shading the line.

The movement on this game though seems super fishy like maybe the public pounded the right side. I don't know. I am on Tulane -4.5 and Under 57 for a small amount.

[2daBank]

Right - so when every book has +5 on the favorite Bovada usually has +5.5 so when the favorite is getting a 1/2 point better than BM or BOL, that means the public is on the dog and Bovada is shading the line.

The movement on this game though seems super fishy like maybe the public pounded the right side. I don't know. I am on Tulane -4.5 and Under 57 for a small amount.

Think I read it as Tulane being -5 at bovada compares to -4.5 other places. Isn’t that what I read?

[gauchojake]

it was -4.5 when everywhere else was -5

anyways it's over. Tulane fukked.

[2daBank]

it was -4.5 when everywhere else was -5

anyways it's over. Tulane fukked.

Gotcha.

Little early bud. Total 56. 1 td isn’t the end!

[dlowilly]

Since when does Tulane wear blue?

[2daBank]

Since when does Tulane wear blue?

Had me all confused

[KVB]

Don't like that HOU scored first but it looks like the offense can hang with Tulane.

[asiagambler]

WOW!!!! Tulane covers!!!!!!!!!!