Buffalo overcame a 16-point deficit against the Jets on Sunday to start its season with a win. Four first-half turnovers were the reason the Bills found themselves down to begin with. They outgained New York 370 yards to 223 and were especially tough defensively against a Jets offense that was hyped for most of the offseason after bringing in Le'Veon Bell. Meanwhile, the Giants were similarly efficient to the Dallas Cowboys in the box score, but they didn't pull off a win like the Bills did. In fact, the Giants lost by 18 points despite gaining 470 yards to the Cowboys' 494. Two lost fumbles, and 70 penalty yards were the difference (and probably Pat Shurmur's calling Saquon Barkley's number only 11 times, despite his averaging nearly 11 yards per carry). Subsequently, we are getting some value here on the home underdog at +2.
My projection is Giants -1.3, and betting against a team beginning the season with back-to-back road games (Buffalo in this case) is 14-1 against the spread since 2015. By the way, 2015 is significant because that is the year the CBA made offseason conditioning less intense. Teams aren't as conditioned early in the season like they have been in the past, and the lengthy travel in back-to-back weeks takes its toll. Those teams lost games by an average of 8.4 points in this spot and missed the spread by 6.5 points. I'm thrilled to take two points with the team I believe should be a small favorite anyway, and the back-to-back road travel for Buffalo is a nice bonus (the 49ers, Chiefs and Colts are other teams in the same spot in Week 2, FYI).
This Week 2 matchup intrigues me the most of any on the card. Everybody just witnessed the Dolphins get absolutely manhandled by the Ravens in a 59-10 loss, giving up 643 yards and gaining only 200 themselves. The Patriots smashed the Steelers in their home opener 33-3. The spread opened Patriots -14.5 in Miami before sportsbooks took the game down as the Sunday night game began. The 14.5 points made my eyes pop. Prior to Sunday, I would have lined this game Patriots -13.5 on a neutral field, but this game is in Miami. If I thought a point spread of roughly -11 was fair for this Week 2 game, how much am I adjusting after the performances in Week 1? It's a fair question, and I'm not sure I even know the answer yet.
With the added narrative about the Patriots-Dolphins finish from last season (remember Miami's last-second lateral play for a touchdown?), we might see this game approach Patriots -17 at some point this week (Caesars opened at -16). It would be the second time in the past 30 years that a team has been favored by that much on the road (New England -19.5 at Baltimore in 2007; they won the game by three points). If the market is offering Dolphins +17 this week, I'm likely going to be a buyer.
Reiterating my Week 1 lesson to be learned, one of the biggest mistakes a bettor can make is betting the NFL in Week 2 based solely on the results of Week 1. Not only is it a worryingly small sample to base your decision-making process on, but it would also require paying a premium because the market often overreacts as well. Don't get me wrong: Part of me is hoping that the market never reaches 17 so I don't have to sweat out one of the ugliest home underdogs in recent history. But the value is the ultimate decision-maker, and I think that is going to be a profitable bet long-term.
Pick: Dolphins +17 or better Other notes
A few of the other teams that had surprising results in Week 1 that we need to be cautious in reacting to are the Chicago Bears, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons. I'll be diving into more of the Week 2 matchups in my weekly NFL takeaways piece on Tuesday. In the meantime, start investigating those back-to-back road spots. Early Week 2 lines
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Evaluating Early Week 2 NFL Betting Lines 🎯
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