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Week 2 College Football Picks, Bets, Nuggets ✅
'Stanford Steve' and 'The Bear': Week 2 college football picks, bets, nuggets
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College football season is here, which means it's time for "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica.
In this file, they break down Week 2 of the season as only they can, offering their top bets, nuggets, games to stay away from and even a special moneyline underdog parlay to jump on.
Here we go with Week 2 picks. Get ready to back -- or fade -- a bunch of dogs you normally wouldn't want any part of. Enjoy Week 2.
The Stanford Steve and the Bear Podcast moneyline dog parlay!
You know, if you have $10 burning a hole in your pocket, why not throw FAU +310, Coastal Carolina +250 and Akron +285 in a parlay that would return $542.47? Hypothetically, of course.
The Bear's favorite moneyline parlay
The SEC East killed us last week, so I'm -110 (per 100) on the year with these. Let's take another shot this week.
This 12-teamer will return $62.73 on $100 based on current ML odds at Caesars.
Wake Forest -1200
Virginia Tech -6000
Michigan -2500
Ohio State -900
Kansas State -2500
Utah -2000
Wisconsin -20000
Appalachian State -2000
Baylor -4000
Florida State -1800
Penn State -7000
Texas Tech -9000
Stanford Steve's 3-team, 9-point teaser for Saturday (-110)
LSU +2.5 (line is LSU -6.5)
Oregon -15 (line is Oregon -24)
Utah -12.5 (line is Utah -21.5)
The plays
The Bear (0-4 last week)
Akron Zips vs. UAB Blazers (-9.5)
Who wants to back a team that lost 42-3 at Illinois last week? This guy. Lost in the Week 1 results was UAB's escape against Alabama State where the Blazers had just 290 yards and needed a kickoff return for a score. Sure they can improve this week, but I would also expect the Zips to play well in their second game for new head coach Tom Arth after a lot of smart money identified them as a play against last week. Our FPI numbers have UAB by 3.5 here, so there's a TD of value according to our power ratings.
Pick: Akron +9.5
Oregon State Beavers at Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors (-6.5)
The bad news -- the Beavers gave up 352 yards on the ground last week to Oklahoma State. The good news -- Chuba Hubbard will not be present on the field Saturday. But there's also more positives to take away from the Beavers' performance last week -- 448 yards and 36 points against the Cowboys. The Beavers will score
their share of points here. And I wonder how much of Hawai'i win vs. Arizona was more about Arizona really not capitalizing on six Hawai'i turnovers. Hawai'i goes from pulling off an outright win over a Pac-12 team as a double-digit dog to now laying a TD. I'll be taking the points here.
Pick: Oregon State +6.5
Tulane Green Wave at Auburn Tigers (-18)
Willie Fritz's team was awesome in its dismantling of FIU last week. The Green Wave rushed for 350 yards, and Justin McMillon was 15-of-19 passing. Obviously this is a big step up in competition for Tulane, but I wonder how much of a letdown Auburn might have after an emotional, improbable comeback win last week vs. Oregon. Suddenly, Auburn and Bo Nix have a lot of people on the bandwagon in a spot that Gus Malzahn hasn't handled well lately -- 2-8 ATS in the past 10 games at Jordan-Hare as a double-digit favorite and 1-5 ATS in the past six home games against non-SEC foes. Auburn will win, but I expect Tulane to make a good showing.
Pick: Tulane +18
Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-16.5)
The Spartans' defense was awesome against Tulsa and will have to carry the team again this week. WMU is a big step up in terms of talent from what MSU faced last week. As good as the MSU defense was, the offense was just as average. After an offseason of reassigning titles and not making any staff changes, the Spartans had 303 total yards and one offensive TD against a team that was 89th nationally in defensive efficiency last year and 80th in scoring defense. MSU averaged just 2.7 YPC, and Brian Lewerke had 192 yards in 37 attempts. A 6-6 Western team went to East Lansing in 2017 and lost by 14. This one can keep it much closer.
Pick: Western Michigan +16.5
Michigan Wolverines (-22.5) vs. Army Black Knights
I'd also be looking at an Army under team total here. I just don't know how Army is going to score many points. Don Brown defenses are typically exploited on matchups on the perimeter. Army can't do that -- or at least I don't think it can. Army had trouble on the line of scrimmage with Rice, which doesn't bode well here. It doesn't matter to me at all who the Michigan QB is. This feels like a 35-7 type game. Maybe you can wait and Army will get a little money, driving the number down, as some think this is a repeat of the Oklahoma game last year.
Pick: Michigan -22.5
Stanford Steve (2-3 last week)
Syracuse Orange at Maryland Terrapins (-2, 57.5)
Cuse was not pretty in its win on the road at Liberty last week, turning the ball over three times in plus territory. Quarterback Tommy Devito was not great either (17-of-35 for 176 yards), and Dino Babers said afterward that he will be better this week. Maryland has serious speed and talent at the skill positions on offense. The Terps will spread out the Orange defense to try and help nullify the strength of it, which is the defensive line. I expect a back-and-forth game and a lot of points.
Pick: Take the over. Syracuse 41, Maryland 40.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins (-7.5, 45.5)
Really like the spot here for the Bruins. They blew a chance for a win last week in "Historic Nippert Stadium" by fumbling the ball away on their first series inside the 10-yard line and then fumbling it away a couple of other times. I expect Dorian Thompson-Robinson to be much better, and I expect some guys who didn't play last week to return. SDSU showed me nothing last week in a 6-0 win over Weber State. UCLA gets Oklahoma in the Rose Bowl next week, so you have to feel as if the Bruins need this game to avoid what would be a very disappointing 0-3 start.
Pick: Take UCLA to cover -7.5. UCLA 31, SDSU 20.
Stay-away games
The Bear
LSU Tigers (-6.5) at Texas Longhorns
I want no part of this game. It has been one-way action it appears, driving this number up to 6.5. Every X's and O's matchup seems to favor LSU. Yet I can't help but think Tom Herman is loving every bit of it. I'll be sitting in the truck Saturday night enjoying the game without a cent wagered.
UL Monroe Warhawks at Florida State Seminoles (-21.5)
It's anyone's guess how the Noles will play after facing 108 plays vs. Boise State last week. Two years ago, FSU needed to beat ULM in a rescheduled game to reach bowl eligibility, and that one was much closer than the 42-10 final would suggest. With a huge game at UVA next week, I'm also staying far away from this one in terms of laying or taking 21.5.
Stanford Steve
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-19, 57.5) at Rice Owls
No team impressed me more than Rice last week in its loss at Army. The Owls went toe-to-toe with the Cadets and should have won the game. I absolutely love what Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren did this offseason, as he brought in three graduate transfer offensive lineman. I fully expect bigger programs to start doing this. On the other side, the Demon Deacons come in with a whale of an offense, as they showed in their comeback win over Utah State last week, winning by three points after the Bear and I gave them out at -3.5. This is a total contrast of styles, so that really scares me when it comes to a possible wager. STAY AWAY!
Minnesota Golden Gophers (-3, 48.5) at Fresno State Bulldogs
I have no clue what to expect from the Gophers as they head out West. It feels like when these Midwest teams go out West, it doesn't turn out well -- for example, Michigan State last year in Tempe, Arizona; and last week Mizzou in Laramie, Wyoming, and Purdue in Reno, Nevada. Plus, I'm not sure what Fresno brings to the table after a tough, physical loss at USC. Staying away.
Stanford Steve's game he doesn't want to give any points in
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-3.5, 64) at Colorado Buffaloes
This might be the game I'm most looking forward to this Saturday. I know I know, we have two monster out of conference games in Clemson and Austin, but this one intrigues me for a couple of reasons. The Huskers' offense played poorly last week and was lucky to get scores from the defense and special teams. Colorado's offense stood out last week over Colorado State at Mile High as the offense went for 52 points. Last year, Buffs WR Laviska Shenault busted onto the national scene, torching the Huskers' D for 10 catches, 177 yards and a TD. Remember too, that when Scott Frost was playing in Lincoln, these two teams were rivals and playing each other in the Big 12, so I feel he might want this one a little more. Take the Nebraska moneyline (-175). Prediction: Nebraska 33, Colorado 31.
Stanford Steve's blind over bet for the week
UTSA Roadrunners at Baylor Bears (-26, 56)
Baylor and an offense led by QB Charlie Brewer might score 56 themselves. Take the over. Prediction: Baylor 56, UTSA 13.
Stanford Steve's double-digit favorite he'd think about laying points with
West Virginia Mountaineers at Missouri Tigers (-14, 63)
I just think the Mizzou offense will be a lot more comfortable at home. The Mountaineers were not impressive offensively last week in a win over James Madison; they rushed for only 34 yards in 24 attempts. If Mizzou eliminates the turnovers, it should roll. Mizzou covers the 14. Prediction: Mizzou 34, West Virginia 15.
Stanford Steve's favorite team total over
Oregon Ducks over 44.5
Stanford Steve's underdogs getting more than a TD worth taking on the moneyline
Florida Atlantic Owls vs. UCF Knights (-10, 69)
The Owls are a nice live home underdog here, as UCF hosts Stanford next week.
Pick: FAU +300
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Kansas Jayhawks (-8, 52.5)
I just think the Jayhawks might have partied too hard after the first win for Les Miles last week.
Pick: Coastal Carolina +255
Bear Bytes
LSU (-6.5, 56.5) at Texas
- Two trends colliding! LSU has won each of its past seven games vs. AP top-10 teams not named Alabama. The Tigers are 6-0-1 ATS in those games. In this span, LSU is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS vs. top-10 Alabama teams.
- And of course we all know Tom Herman is an impressive 13-2-1 ATS in his career as an underdog with 10 outright wins.
Syracuse at Maryland (-2, 58)
- It's not an upset! Since 2015, there have been 23 instances in the regular season where a team ranked 20th or worse entered a game vs. an unranked team as an underdog. Ranked teams are just 4-19 SU in that span. Last year, there were six instances, with Northwestern's win at Minnesota marking the only time the ranked team did not lose.
Miami Hurricanes (-4, 47.5) at North Carolina Tar Heels
- Not a good spot for the Canes. Dating to 2017, Miami is 4-11 ATS as a favorite vs. Power 5 opponents. The Canes have lost five of the past six games they entered as a favorite against a Power 5 team away from home.
Texas A&M Aggies at Clemson Tigers (-17.5, 64)
- If it looks as if it's too big of a number, it usually isn't. Think twice about taking the points. Taking a top-12 team as a 17-point dog sounds tempting, but it hasn't proven profitable. Since 1990, there have been 21 instances where a top-12 team was a 17-point dog. Those 17 are just 7-14 ATS with three SU wins, the last being Tennessee at Florida in 2001.
California Golden Bears at Washington Huskies (-13.5, 43.5)
- Another upset in store? Last year, the Bears pulled off a 12-10 upset win over Washington as a 12.5-point favorite. It's not unusual for the Bears to play well as a double-digit dog under Justin Wilcox, as Cal is 5-2 ATS with three outright wins as a double-digit dog.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Kentucky Wildcats (-15.5, 53)
- The underdog is howling? In its past 23 games as an underdog, EMU is 19-4 ATS with nine outright wins. One of those outright wins came last year at Purdue as a 16-point underdog.
New Mexico State Aggies at Alabama Crimson Tide (-55.5, 64)
- Too many points? In its past 20 games as a favorite of at least 35 points, Alabama is 5-14-1 ATS. And narrowing it even further, the four times the Tide has been a 50-point favorite, as is the case here, Alabama is 0-4 ATS. Last year, Alabama beat The Citadel by 33 as a 54.5-point favorite.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Wisconsin Badgers (-35, 51
- Don't back Bucky? The Badgers have failed to cover each of the past seven games in which they were favored by more than 31 points. They are 0-5 ATS under Paul Chryst (0-2 last year) as a favorite of more than 31 points.
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Originally Posted by MinnesotaFats
