The 2019 NFL season is ready to kick off, and we're here with a betting preview for Thursday's game between the Bears and Packers at Soldier Field in Chicago.
ESPN betting analysts Preston Johnson and Joe Fortenbaugh, and Fantasy's Mike Clay, combine to offer their best bets for the first game of the NFL season
Bears QB Mitch Trubisky UNDER 248.5 passing yards (-110)
Clay: Seven quarterbacks reached 249 passing yards against the Packers last season, but Trubisky was not one of them. He threw for 171 yards in 35 attempts in a Week 1 road loss before throwing for 235 yards in 28 attempts in a Week 15 home win. Trubisky cleared 248 passing yards in only five of 15 games last season, three of which came during his four losses. The Green Bay pass defense should be better after adding Adrian Amos and Darnell Savage at safety, signing Za'Darius Smith and Preston Smith to rejuvenate the pass rush, and with young corners Jaire Alexander, Kevin King and Josh Jackson all expected to be active.
Johnson: I project Jones to score a touchdown in this matchup 44 percent of the time, or a true price of +127. At +160 we need Jones to score only 38.5 percent of the time to break even, so that is ultimately where the edge lies. I'm fairly bullish overall on the refreshed Green Bay offensive attack, and Jones ranked first among running backs last season anyway, averaging 5.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Packers also ranked second in the NFL as a team in rushing success rate after adjusting for strength of schedule. They signed Billy Turner in the offseason to bolster their offensive line, and at the price of +160, this is too good to pass up.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers OVER 266.5 passing yards (-110)
Fortenbaugh: Rodgers eclipsed this mark in both showdowns with Chicago last season while concluding the 2018 campaign averaging a healthy 277.6 passing yards per contest. However, you have to keep in mind the fact that those numbers came via former head coach Mike McCarthy's stale and predictable passing offense that the Bears had faced 27 times since 2006. This version of the Green Bay offense, led by first-time head coach Matt LaFleur, is sure to offer a few new wrinkles. Additionally, the vaunted Chicago defense is transitioning from iconic defensive coordinator Vic Fangio to former Colts head coach Chuck Pagano. Nothing against Pagano, who is more than capable, but he's not Fangio ... and that will benefit Rodgers and the Packers greatly.
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Best Bets For Packers-Bears 📝
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